Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

College football Week 12 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on BYU, Florida

This week’s college football best bets feature the No. 6 BYU Cougars, as well as the Florida Gators hosting the No. 22 LSU Tigers.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing BYU to score a bundle of points at home against a suspect Kansas Jayhawks defence and for Florida to contain LSU as a home underdog.

Check out the best college football Week 12 picks for the action on Nov. 16.

College football Week 12 picks

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Best Bet: BYU over 28.5 points (-110)

BYU gritted through a Holy War win over the Utah Utes last week and went under this total. But that has been an anomaly for the Cougars this season.

So far this season, BYU has scored over 28.5 points in seven of nine games. The Cougars average 33.7 PPG, which ranks 27th in the country.

The Kansas Jayhawks have the No. 77 scoring defence, allowing 25.9 PPG. They’ve allowed five of their past six opponents to go over this total.

Kansas is particularly susceptible to getting stung when playing on the road, too. In each of its past three road games, KU allowed 29-plus points and 440-plus total yards.

I could see this game turning into a barn-burner, as Kansas has really found its footing on offence in recent games. Under fifth-year QB Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks have topped 400 total yards in four straight games and are averaging 36.3 PPG in that span.

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Both offences are capable of scoring quickly and in bunches, but Kansas’ winless road record makes me hesitant to back the over on the game total.

This seems like a comfortable team total for an explosive BYU attack, though.

Key stat: BYU has gone over 28.5 points in all four of its home games, averaging 39.5 PPG in those matchups.

Quick picks

Florida +4.5 (-134): LSU is in a letdown spot this week after getting run out of its own building last Saturday against Alabama (losing 42-13 as a 3-point underdog).

Florida also got trounced last — at the hands of No. 3 Texas — but that was with standout freshman quarterback DJ Lagway on the sidelines.

Lagway is expected to return this week in The Swamp. So is running back Montrell Johnson Jr., who’s averaging 5.3 yards/rush in six games. Florida is 5-0 ATS in Lagway’s past five starts.

LSU, meanwhile, is just 3-6 ATS on the season.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. on 11/15/2024.

College football Week 12 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Travis Hunter, BYU, Florida

This week’s college football best bets feature Heisman Trophy candidate Travis Hunter, the No. 6 BYU Cougars and more.

The pregame narrative: Hunter is coming off a pair of stellar performances, and I like him to go over his receiving yards line again this week. I’m also backing BYU to score a bundle of points at home and for Wisconsin’s Tawee Walker to have a quiet night against the No. 1 Oregon Ducks.

Check out the best college football Week 12 picks for the action on Nov. 16.

College football Week 12 picks

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Best Bet: BYU over 28.5 points (-117)

BYU gritted through a Holy War win over the Utah Utes last week and went under this total. But that has been an anomaly for the Cougars this season.

So far this season, BYU has scored over 28.5 points in seven of nine games. The Cougars average 33.7 PPG, which ranks 27th in the country.

The Kansas Jayhawks have the No. 77 scoring defence, allowing 25.9 PPG. They’ve allowed five of their past six opponents to go over this total.

Kansas is particularly susceptible to getting stung when playing on the road, too. In each of its past three road games, KU allowed 29-plus points and 440-plus total yards.

I could see this game turning into a barn-burner, as Kansas has really found its footing on offence in recent games. Under fifth-year QB Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks have topped 400 total yards in four straight games and are averaging 36.3 PPG in that span.

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Both offences are capable of scoring quickly and in bunches, but Kansas’ winless road record makes me hesitant to back the over on the game total.

This seems like a comfortable team total for an explosive BYU attack, though.

Key stat: BYU has gone over 28.5 points in all four of its home games, averaging 39.5 PPG in those matchups.

Quick picks

Hunter under 97.5 receiving yards (-118): Hunter and the No. 17 Colorado Buffaloes need to keep their foot on the gas. The Heisman Trophy and a College Football Playoff berth are both very much in play.

Hunter has cashed this bet in six of nine games this year, including stellar performances in back-to-back games:

Oct. 26: 9 catches, 153 yards, 2 TDs
Nov. 9: 9 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD

Hunter is seeing 9.8 targets per game and is at the centre of Colorado’s success as the nation’s No. 8 pass offence (320.2 yards/game).

Colorado is home against Utah this week, which isn’t a cupcake matchup. But the Utes haven’t seen a talent like Hunter yet, and I expect a big workload for him.

Florida +4.5 (-120): No. 22 LSU is in a letdown spot this week after getting run out of its own building last Saturday against Alabama (losing 42-13 as a 3-point underdog).

Florida also got trounced last — at the hands of No. 3 Texas — but that was with standout freshman quarterback DJ Lagway on the sidelines.

Lagway is expected to return this week in The Swamp. So is running back Montrell Johnson Jr., who’s averaging 5.3 yards/rush in six games. Florida is 5-0 ATS in Lagway’s past five starts.

LSU, meanwhile, is just 3-6 ATS on the season.

Walker under 74.5 rushing yards (-125): The Wisconsin Badgers are two-touchdown underdogs against top-ranked Oregon. That makes it difficult for me to expect a ton of rushing volume out of Walker.

Since Chez Mellusi stepped away from the Badgers at the start of October, Walker has owned the Wisconsin backfield. And the Oklahoma transfer has largely done well, going over 74.5 rush yards in three of five games.

But his three overs came when Wisconsin was an 11-point favourite (vs. Purdue), a 1-point underdog (at Rutgers) and a 9.5-point favourite (at Northwestern).

Walker’s workload should shrink in a game with high blowout potential. And Oregon has been strong against the run, allowing the 33rd-fewest rush yards per game.

Picks made at 8:50 a.m. on 11/15/2024.

NFL Week 11 parlay picks: Bet on Steelers to cover, Packers to win in +285 ticket

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the backbone of last week’s winning NFL parlay picks, and they’re worth putting back on your ticket for Week 11.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens in one of the most compelling matchups of the week, and I like the home side to cover the spread. I’m also backing the Green Bay Packers to beat a longtime rival and for the New England Patriots to cover an alt spread at home.

Check out my NFL Week 11 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 11 parlay picks

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Parlay: Steelers +4 + Packers moneyline + Patriots +7.5 (+285)

Steelers +4 (-130): Very few teams can say they have the blueprint to stop Lamar Jackson, but Pittsburgh might be one of them.

Jackson, who is favoured to win his third NFL MVP this season, has a 66.8 QB rating and a 4:7 TD-to-INT ratio in four career starts against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is on a four-game ATS win streak and has covered this number in all nine of its games this season. Also, the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the previous three seasons against the Ravens.

Russell Wilson has Pittsburgh rolling right now, and the team is typically strong in a spot like this. The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2021, per Team Rankings.

Other parlay picks

Packers moneyline (-239): Fresh off a bye, the Packers get to face a spiralling division foe that has been under their thumb for a long, long time.

Green Bay is 15-1 against the Chicago Bears in the past eight seasons, which includes a pair of wins with Jordan Love under centre last season. Love had 561 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions in last year’s matchups.

The Bears have lost three games in a row and haven’t scored a touchdown since Week 8. That ineptitude led to the ouster of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this past week.

Chicago is 4-1 in home/neutral site games, but those opponents have a combined record of 14-34 (.292). Green Bay, at 6-3, poses a much tougher challenge.

Patriots +7.5 (-188): After dunking on the Bears, I don’t want to overstate how impressive New England’s 19-3 win in Chicago was last week. But it does give me some faith that the Pats can cover this alt line.

New England has covered this number in six of 10 games — including each of its past three.

I’m not calling for an upset here, as I think the Los Angeles Rams can do enough to scratch out a win. But L.A. is travelling across the country on a short week, which doesn’t help.

The Rams (4-5) have only covered a -7.5 spread in one of nine games. After L.A. lost as a home favourite against an iffy Miami Dolphins squad on Monday, I’m not convinced that the team will pull off a comfortable win in Foxborough.

NFL picks made at 1:15 p.m. on 11/14/24.

NFL Week 11 parlay picks: Bet on Steelers to cover, Packers to win in +307 ticket

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the backbone of last week’s winning NFL parlay picks, and they’re worth putting back on your ticket for Week 11.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens in one of the most compelling matchups of the week, and I like the home side to cover the spread. I’m also backing the Green Bay Packers to beat a longtime rival and for the New England Patriots to cover an alt spread at home.

Check out my NFL Week 11 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 11 parlay picks

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Parlay: Steelers +3.5 + Packers moneyline + Patriots +7.5 (+307)

Steelers +3.5 (-118): Very few teams can say they have the blueprint to stop Lamar Jackson, but Pittsburgh might be one of them.

Jackson, who is favoured to win his third NFL MVP this season, has a 66.8 QB rating and a 4:7 TD-to-INT ratio in four career starts against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is on a four-game ATS win streak and has covered this number in all nine of its games this season. Also, the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the previous three seasons against the Ravens.

Russell Wilson has Pittsburgh rolling right now, and the team is typically strong in a spot like this. The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2021, per Team Rankings.

Other parlay picks

Packers moneyline (-250): Fresh off a bye, the Packers get to face a spiralling division foe that has been under their thumb for a long, long time.

Green Bay is 15-1 against the Chicago Bears in the past eight seasons, which includes a pair of wins with Jordan Love under centre last season. Love had 561 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions in last year’s matchups.

The Bears have lost three games in a row and haven’t scored a touchdown since Week 8. That ineptitude led to the ouster of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this past week.

Chicago is 4-1 in home/neutral site games, but those opponents have a combined record of 14-34 (.292). Green Bay, at 6-3, poses a much tougher challenge.

Patriots +7.5 (-177): After dunking on the Bears, I don’t want to overstate how impressive New England’s 19-3 win in Chicago was last week. But it does give me some faith that the Pats can cover this alt line.

New England has covered this number in six of 10 games — including each of its past three.

I’m not calling for an upset here, as I think the Los Angeles Rams can do enough to scratch out a win. But L.A. is travelling across the country on a short week, which doesn’t help.

The Rams (4-5) have only covered a -7.5 spread in one of nine games. After L.A. lost as a home favourite against an iffy Miami Dolphins squad on Monday, I’m not convinced that the team will pull off a comfortable win in Foxborough.

NFL picks made at 11:55 a.m. on 11/14/24.

Commanders vs. Eagles Week 11 TNF prop picks: Bet on Robinson, Hurts to rack up rush yards on Thursday Night Football

The top spot in the NFC East is up for grabs on Thursday Night Football as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Brian Robinson Jr. returns to the backfield for the Commanders, and I like his chances of clearing a rather modest yardage total. On the other side, Jalen Hurts is coming off a strong effort as a runner and looks like a solid bet to make noise in the ground game, too.

Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 14.

Commanders vs. Eagles prop picks

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Best Bet: Robinson over 44.5 rushing yards (-118)

Betting on a player who’s coming off an injury-related absence can be tricky. But I see some positives in Robinson’s situation.

Robinson (hamstring) practiced all week, logging limited sessions on Monday and Tuesday before turning in a full practice yesterday.

He missed a game earlier this season due to a knee injury, and in his return, Robinson rushed for 71 yards on 12 carries.

Initially, Robinson wasn’t expected to miss any time due to his hamstring issue. But the Commanders made him a late scratch in Week 9 (at Giants) and held him out last Sunday against the Steelers.

Now, while his teammates grind through a short week, Robinson should be as fresh and rested as anyone on the field. He’s been the Commanders’ best tailback when healthy, so they shouldn’t be shy about giving him touches.

Aside from the Week 5 matchup in which he sustained a knee injury, Robinson has seen 12-plus carries in every game. If that type of workload comes his way again, 45-plus rushing yards should be well within reach.

Washington’s offensive identity is built on its run game.

Having a dual-threat quarterback like Jayden Daniels certainly doesn’t hurt, as his ability to tuck and run gives defences an extra element to worry about.

The Commanders rank fifth in the NFL in run play percentage (50.5%), per Team Rankings. Against an Eagles team that ranks a mediocre 13th in yards allowed per rush (4.4), I think Robinson will have enough volume to cash this bet.

Key stat: Robinson is averaging 65.9 rush yards per game on a career-high 4.6 yards per attempt.

Quick pick

Hurts over 39.5 rushing yards (-122): Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson have both cleared the 40-rushing-yard mark against the Commanders this season, and I think Jalen Hurts will be next up.

Some folks were concerned last week about a possible ankle injury for Hurts. But he quelled those concerns easily by rushing seven times for 56 yards and two touchdowns.

Hurts has rushed at least seven times in all nine games this season, which gives him a solid rushing floor. He’s averaging 42.0 yards on 10.3 carries per game.

The Commanders have one of the most suspect run defences in the NFL. They allow 4.9 yards/rush (29th in the NFL) and rank 27th in defensive EPA per rush, per RBSDM.com.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/14/2024.

CFL Grey Cup odds 2025:

A major injury in the division final round has drastically shifted the Grey Cup odds in the favour of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

The latest: Chad Kelly suffered a broken leg in the Toronto Argonauts’ East Final win over the Montreal Alouettes, which means backup Nick Arbuckle will be under centre for the Boatmen in the title game. Winnipeg, which is back in the Grey Cup for a fifth straight season, lost the past two championship by a combined five points.

Find the latest Grey Cup odds below.

Grey Cup odds

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Team	Odds
Toronto Argonauts	+350
Winnipeg Blue Bombers	+350
BC Lions	+600
Montreal Alouettes	+650
Ottawa Redblacks	+700
Saskatchewan Roughriders	+750
Edmonton Elks	+1,500
Hamilton Tiger-Cats	+1,800
Calgary Stampeders	+2,500

CFL Grey Cup odds as of 2:15 p.m. on 05/27/2025

Best CFL Grey Cup odds

The favourites: Argonauts, Blue Bombers (+350)

The Blue Bombers started their season off 0-4, but they’ve looked like a championship-calibre squad ever since.

Winnipeg went 11-3 following its winless start to earn the West Division’s top seed, backed by the No. 1 defence in scoring (20.3 points/game) and yardage (328.6 yards/game).

Offensively, the Bombers have largely been cruising since the start of September. They’ve averaged 31.4 PPG in that span to go with a 6-2 ATS record.

Keep in mind that Winnipeg’s only rough outing in that stretch came against Toronto. On Oct. 11, the Argos held the Bombers to 11 points in a 14-11 win.

Winnipeg fans were probably ready to throw the word “dynasty” around once the team reached its third consecutive Grey Cup in 2022. After back-to-back losses in the two title games since, the Bombers are in strong position to hoist the trophy again.

Alternatively, if Winnipeg loses, it’ll be the first CFL team to lose three straight Grey Cups since the Alouettes in 1954-56.

Grey Cup notes

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Clippers vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions Nov. 11: Bet on Harden but back OKC to cover in +350 SGP

For the second time this month, the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: OKC is tied for first in the Western Conference and should be able to cover a modest spread at home on Monday night. In my +350 SGP, I’m also fading a teased-up point total for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and looking for James Harden to do damage as a rebounder.

Check out my Clippers vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 11.

Clippers vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -3.5 + Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points + Harden over 5.5 rebounds (+350)

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Thunder -3.5 (-190): I view OKC’s loss last night as a blip, and it won’t deter me from riding with the team on a back-to-back tonight.

The Thunder lost by 11 as 6.5-point favourites on Sunday night against a Golden State Warriors team that couldn’t miss from 3-point range (21-of-43, 49.0%). It happens. OKC is still a stellar team that has already roughed up Los Angeles once this month.

In L.A. on Nov. 2, the Thunder cruised to a 13-point victory. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and have an NBA-high average point differential (+12.8).

Credit the Clippers for going 3-0 on the road so far — winning as underdogs in each of those games — but the Thunder have been too good on a consistent basis for me to consider buying points in the other direction.

Also, OKC is 10-6 ATS on back-to-backs since the start of last season, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points (-165): OKC doesn’t need a bloated point total from Gilgeous-Alexander to win.

How do I know that? The Thunder are 8-2 this year, while SGA is 1-9 against this line.

From a scoring standpoint, it’s been a bit of a slow start for last year’s MVP runner-up. SGA, who’s averaging 26.1 PPG, is shooting a career-low 26.4% from 3-point range on a career-high 5.3 attempts.

Defence hasn’t been an issue for the Clippers, who have the NBA’s fourth-best defensive rating this season. L.A. has held Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points in seven consecutive meetings (dating back to October 2022).

Harden over 5.5 rebounds (-177): It’s difficult to whip up an SGP involving the Thunder and not back someone on the other team to snag a bunch of rebounds.

For as talented as OKC is, the team is not known as a stalwart on the glass. The Thunder have the NBA’s third-lowest rebounding rate (47.2%), which is exactly where they ranked last year.

Also, OKC is allowing the most rebounds per game to opposing guards (39.7), per NBA.com.

Harden is averaging 8.1 rebounds per game this year, which matches a career-high he set in the 2016-17 season. He’s cashed this bet in seven of 10 games, which includes a 13-rebound performance against OKC.

NBA picks made at 12:10 p.m. on 11/11/24.

NFL Week 11 odds and betting lines: Unbeaten Chiefs face Bills, Eagles face Commanders in key NFC East battle

After a Thursday Night Football clash between the beasts of the NFC East, bettors are treated to a 12-game slate on Sunday.

The latest: The Washington Commanders battle the Philadelphia Eagles, and the winner will claim first place in their division. On Sunday, we could have another classic brewing when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs.

Check out the latest NFL Week 11 odds below.

NFL Week 11 odds

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

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Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

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Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

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Visit all of NorthStar Bets’ NFL markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Betting Insights

Philadelphia carries a five-game win streak into this week’s massive TNF matchup. Washington came up just short against a good Pittsburgh squad in Week 10 and should be competitive on Thursday. The Commanders are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four road games, winning twice straight up as underdogs.

The wheels are falling off for the Bears, who failed to find the end zone in back-to-back games. Up next are the Packers, coming off a bye and looking to snap a three-game ATS losing streak. Green Bay “owns” Chicago, running up a 10-game win streak (ATS and straight up) in this matchup.

Finally, Pittsburgh has to face a fellow AFC North foe. The Steelers (7-2) host the Ravens (7-3) with a midseason division lead on the line. Baltimore has scored 30-plus points in six of its past seven games.

Christian McCaffrey churned for 107 scrimmage yards in his season debut on Sunday, breathing life into a 49ers offence that still isn’t firing on all cylinders. San Francisco eked out its third win in four games, though, and now eyes a season sweep against Seattle. The Niners won, 36-24, in Seattle back in Week 6.

With a blocked field goal at the buzzer, the Chiefs found a way to scrape by for another win. KC is 9-0, but seven of those wins have come by one score. So maybe it’s not too surprising to see the Bills open as 2.5-point home favourites. After all, Buffalo has won five in a row and has a far better point differential (+97) than Kansas City (+58).

Raptors vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 10: Bet on Toronto to cover, RJ Barrett to contribute

The Toronto Raptors are back at it inside Crypto.com Arena tonight to face the Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: Toronto suffered yet another tight loss last night, and I like the visiting squad to cover as underdogs against L.A. In the prop market, Anthony Davis should feast as a scorer, while RJ Barrett will look to build off his last matchup against the Lakers as a passer and rebounder.

Check out my Raptors vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 10.

Raptors vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +12.5 + Davis over 27.5 points + Barrett over 10.5 rebounds/assists (+300)

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Raptors +12.5 (-148): If you’re a non-delusional Raptors fan, this season is off to an excellent start.

Toronto (2-8) is losing frequently and is well-positioned in the “fail for Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes. But the team has shown tons of fight in pretty much every game.

The Raptors are 8-2 ATS, which is the second-best mark in the NBA. They’ve been underdogs in every game and have covered this number in all eight ATS victories.

That includes a six-point loss against the Lakers at home on Nov. 1. L.A. was a 9-point favourite in that game.

Given that the Lakers have yet to cover a -12.5 line, I really like the Raptors’ chances to handle their business at this number tonight.

SGP legs

Davis over 26.5 points (-162): Davis is on one right now, averaging a league-best 32.4 PPG through eight games.

He probably won’t keep up that pace, but the 13-year veteran has averaged 24.9 PPG since joining the Lakers in 2019-20. So he’s certainly comfortable scoring in this range.

I like his chances to put up another big number tonight against the Raptors, who allow the second-most points to opposing centres (27.5), per Betting Pros.

Last year, AD dropped 41 points at Crypto.com Arena against the Raptors. Earlier this month in Toronto, he scored 38 points on 14-of-20 shooting.

Barrett over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-141): Barrett is shooting just 37.0% over his past four games, but scoring isn’t the only way for him to make a positive impact.

Barrett ranks 15th in the NBA in usage rate (30.4%) among players who’ve appeared in at least five games

He’s third among Raptors in rebounds (5.4/game) and first in assists (6.4/game)

When Barrett faced the Lakers on Nov. 1, he tallied a season-high 12 assists to go with five rebounds.

Over his past six games, Barrett has averaged 12.5 rebounds/assists and cashed this bet four times.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 11/10/24.

Dolphins vs. Rams Week 10 MNF prop picks: Target Nacua, Achane on Monday Night Football

NFL Week 10 action concludes out west as the Los Angeles Rams host the Miami Dolphins for Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Will we finally see a full game from Puka Nacua? I think so, and that makes him a logical target to rack up catches. On the Dolphins’ side, I expect Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane to keep rolling.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Rams prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 11.

Dolphins vs. Rams prop picks

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Best Bet: Smith over 34.5 receiving yards (-134)

Playing for his fourth team in five seasons, Smith may have finally found a home.

The 29-year-old tight end is enjoying a career year with the Dolphins, posting his best per-game marks in receptions (3.8) and yards (37.8).

He’s also trending up right now, with some really solid volume in his past four games:

27 targets (6.8/game)
21 catches (5.3/game)
224 yards (56.0/game)

Smith has cashed this bet in three of his past four games. And if he continues to see six-plus targets on a weekly basis, he should remain reliable at this number.

In what has been a down year for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, guys like Smith have been able to step up and find productivity in the underneath game.

Miami should continue to prioritize getting the ball out quickly — as a safety measure for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, if nothing else — and that is a plus for Smith.

Key stat: The Rams allow the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (59.3).

Quick pick

Achane over 99.5 rushing/receiving yards (-125): When Tagovailoa is on the field, Achane tends to feast.

Look at the per-game difference in Achane’s production when Miami’s QB1 is under centre:

With Tagovailoa: 20.5 touches, 70.0 rush yards, 63.3 receiving yards
Without Tagovailoa: 12.0 touches, 35.0 rush yards, 12.3 receiving yards

With that kind of discrepancy, I have to ride the wave of a Tagovailoa-led offence. Achane has remarkable speed and sees excellent volume in the receiving game. Miami should continue to feed him.

Nacua over 5.5 receptions (-115): We still haven’t seen Nacua play a full game. That should change this week, and I expect ample target volume to come his way.

Nacua only played in 32.5% of L.A.’s offensive snaps in Week 1 before sustaining an injury, and he saw 58.8% of snaps in his Week 8 return, per Player Profiler.

Last week, Nacua played in 35.1% of snaps before getting ejected for throwing a punch.

He’s completely healthy and, barring any skirmishes, should be able to stay on the field for a lot more snaps on Monday.

Nacua averaged 6.2 catches per game as a rookie and was targeted on 29.1% of his routes, per Rotowire. He’s been targeted on 31.5% of his routes this year, so he just needs to stay on the field to put up big numbers.

Picks made at 12:06 p.m. ET 11/10/2024.