This week’s college football best bets feature Heisman Trophy candidate Travis Hunter, the No. 6 BYU Cougars and more.
The pregame narrative: Hunter is coming off a pair of stellar performances, and I like him to go over his receiving yards line again this week. I’m also backing BYU to score a bundle of points at home and for Wisconsin’s Tawee Walker to have a quiet night against the No. 1 Oregon Ducks.
Check out the best college football Week 12 picks for the action on Nov. 16.
College football Week 12 picks
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Best Bet: BYU over 28.5 points (-117)
BYU gritted through a Holy War win over the Utah Utes last week and went under this total. But that has been an anomaly for the Cougars this season.
So far this season, BYU has scored over 28.5 points in seven of nine games. The Cougars average 33.7 PPG, which ranks 27th in the country.
The Kansas Jayhawks have the No. 77 scoring defence, allowing 25.9 PPG. They’ve allowed five of their past six opponents to go over this total.
Kansas is particularly susceptible to getting stung when playing on the road, too. In each of its past three road games, KU allowed 29-plus points and 440-plus total yards.
I could see this game turning into a barn-burner, as Kansas has really found its footing on offence in recent games. Under fifth-year QB Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks have topped 400 total yards in four straight games and are averaging 36.3 PPG in that span.
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Both offences are capable of scoring quickly and in bunches, but Kansas’ winless road record makes me hesitant to back the over on the game total.
This seems like a comfortable team total for an explosive BYU attack, though.
Key stat: BYU has gone over 28.5 points in all four of its home games, averaging 39.5 PPG in those matchups.
Quick picks
Hunter under 97.5 receiving yards (-118): Hunter and the No. 17 Colorado Buffaloes need to keep their foot on the gas. The Heisman Trophy and a College Football Playoff berth are both very much in play.
Hunter has cashed this bet in six of nine games this year, including stellar performances in back-to-back games:
- Oct. 26: 9 catches, 153 yards, 2 TDs
- Nov. 9: 9 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD
Hunter is seeing 9.8 targets per game and is at the centre of Colorado’s success as the nation’s No. 8 pass offence (320.2 yards/game).
Colorado is home against Utah this week, which isn’t a cupcake matchup. But the Utes haven’t seen a talent like Hunter yet, and I expect a big workload for him.
Florida +4.5 (-120): No. 22 LSU is in a letdown spot this week after getting run out of its own building last Saturday against Alabama (losing 42-13 as a 3-point underdog).
Florida also got trounced last — at the hands of No. 3 Texas — but that was with standout freshman quarterback DJ Lagway on the sidelines.
Lagway is expected to return this week in The Swamp. So is running back Montrell Johnson Jr., who’s averaging 5.3 yards/rush in six games. Florida is 5-0 ATS in Lagway’s past five starts.
LSU, meanwhile, is just 3-6 ATS on the season.
Walker under 74.5 rushing yards (-125): The Wisconsin Badgers are two-touchdown underdogs against top-ranked Oregon. That makes it difficult for me to expect a ton of rushing volume out of Walker.
Since Chez Mellusi stepped away from the Badgers at the start of October, Walker has owned the Wisconsin backfield. And the Oklahoma transfer has largely done well, going over 74.5 rush yards in three of five games.
But his three overs came when Wisconsin was an 11-point favourite (vs. Purdue), a 1-point underdog (at Rutgers) and a 9.5-point favourite (at Northwestern).
Walker’s workload should shrink in a game with high blowout potential. And Oregon has been strong against the run, allowing the 33rd-fewest rush yards per game.
Picks made at 8:50 a.m. on 11/15/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.