NFL Week 10 action concludes out west as the Los Angeles Rams host the Miami Dolphins for Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Will we finally see a full game from Puka Nacua? I think so, and that makes him a logical target to rack up catches. On the Dolphins’ side, I expect Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane to keep rolling.
Check out my Dolphins vs. Rams prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 11.
Dolphins vs. Rams prop picks
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Best Bet: Smith over 34.5 receiving yards (-134)
Playing for his fourth team in five seasons, Smith may have finally found a home.
The 29-year-old tight end is enjoying a career year with the Dolphins, posting his best per-game marks in receptions (3.8) and yards (37.8).
He’s also trending up right now, with some really solid volume in his past four games:
- 27 targets (6.8/game)
- 21 catches (5.3/game)
- 224 yards (56.0/game)
Smith has cashed this bet in three of his past four games. And if he continues to see six-plus targets on a weekly basis, he should remain reliable at this number.
In what has been a down year for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, guys like Smith have been able to step up and find productivity in the underneath game.
Miami should continue to prioritize getting the ball out quickly — as a safety measure for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, if nothing else — and that is a plus for Smith.
Key stat: The Rams allow the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (59.3).
Quick pick
Achane over 99.5 rushing/receiving yards (-125): When Tagovailoa is on the field, Achane tends to feast.
Look at the per-game difference in Achane’s production when Miami’s QB1 is under centre:
- With Tagovailoa: 20.5 touches, 70.0 rush yards, 63.3 receiving yards
- Without Tagovailoa: 12.0 touches, 35.0 rush yards, 12.3 receiving yards
With that kind of discrepancy, I have to ride the wave of a Tagovailoa-led offence. Achane has remarkable speed and sees excellent volume in the receiving game. Miami should continue to feed him.
Nacua over 5.5 receptions (-115): We still haven’t seen Nacua play a full game. That should change this week, and I expect ample target volume to come his way.
Nacua only played in 32.5% of L.A.’s offensive snaps in Week 1 before sustaining an injury, and he saw 58.8% of snaps in his Week 8 return, per Player Profiler.
Last week, Nacua played in 35.1% of snaps before getting ejected for throwing a punch.
He’s completely healthy and, barring any skirmishes, should be able to stay on the field for a lot more snaps on Monday.
Nacua averaged 6.2 catches per game as a rookie and was targeted on 29.1% of his routes, per Rotowire. He’s been targeted on 31.5% of his routes this year, so he just needs to stay on the field to put up big numbers.
Picks made at 12:06 p.m. ET 11/10/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.