Jordan Horrobin

A very important matchup for AFC playoff implications is going down on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) are sitting in a wild-card spot, while the Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) are lurking on the fringe. I like Cincy on an alt spread in my +370 SGP to go with prop bets on Joe Burrow, J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey.

Check out my Bengals vs. Chargers same-game parlay predictions for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 17.

Bengals vs. Chargers predictions

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Parlay: Bengals +3.5 + Dobbins over 2.5 receptions + Burrow over 229.5 pass yards + McConkey over 39.5 rec. yards (+370)

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Bengals +3.5 (-167): SoFi Stadium doesn’t have a reputation for being a tough environment for visiting teams, and I expect Cincinnati to turn in another solid road showing on Sunday.

The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road and 3-2 straight up. Both losses came by exactly one point (at Baltimore, at Kansas City).

All six of L.A.’s wins this season have come by at least a touchdown, but the Chargers have yet to defeat an above-.500 team.

Some hard luck has the Bengals on the wrong side of .500 too, but they should provide one of the Chargers’ toughest tests to date.

Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2021, per Team Rankings.

Other parlay picks

Dobbins over 2.5 receptions (-130): This is my favourite prop bet for Sunday Night Football, so I’m doubling down on it in the SGP.

When Gus Edwards returned for the Chargers last week, he immediately saw a notable workload out of the backfield. But he’s not a threat to steal targets from Dobbins.

This season, Dobbins has 28 targets. The rest of L.A.’s RB room has combined for four.

Dobbins is averaging 2.7 receptions per game this season and rarely blows by this number, but he’s still clearing it pretty reliably.

The first-year Charger has three or more catches in six of nine games — including four of five with Edwards active.

Go to Bengals vs. Chargers betting markets

Burrow over 229.5 passing yards (-335): If the Bengals were having a better season in the win column, you’d hear Burrow’s name more often in the MVP conversation.

The fifth-year quarterback paces the NFL in passing yards, completions, attempts and TDs. If only he could play defence, too.

Burrow is averaging 267.2 pass yards per game and has cashed this over in seven of 10.

The Chargers’ defence ranks No. 2 in EPA per dropback, which is part of the reason I teased Burrow’s total way down. But with a healthy tandem of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, this shouldn’t be a problem for Cincy’s QB1.

McConkey over 39.5 receiving yards (-275): Though he’s rarely been explosive, McConkey has been impressively steady throughout his rookie season in L.A.

• The second-rounder from Georgia has 40+ yards in seven consecutive games

• McConkey is averaging 52.7 yards/game and is on pace for a 900-yard season

It usually takes some time for rookie receivers to build trust and chemistry, but McConkey has been a go-to guy in Jim Harbaugh’s system from the jump. He leads the Chargers in catches (37) and has turned that into a team-high 25 first downs.

Cincinnati’s defence ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and 23rd in pass yards allowed per game. I love this matchup for McConkey.

Picks made at 8:00 a.m. ET 11/17/2024.

I’m fading one receptions prop and tailing another for this week’s Sunday Night Football prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Ja’Marr Chase exploded for 11 catches and 264 yards last week for the Cincinnati Bengals, but I like a plus-money fade for the NFL’s leading receiver. On the Los Angeles Chargers’ side, look for J.K. Dobbins to stay involved in the passing game.

Check out my Bengals vs. Chargers prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 17.

Bengals vs. Chargers prop picks

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Best Bet: Dobbins over 2.5 receptions (-127)

Last week’s return of Gus Edwards put Dobbins back into a timeshare, but I don’t think that’s a bad thing for his potential as a receiver.

While Edwards saw 10 carries (to Dobbins’ 15) in his first action since September, nothing changed in the receiving game.

• Dobbins was the only L.A. tailback targeted in Week 10

• Dobbins has far more targets this year (28) than the other RBs have combined (four)

So if the Chargers are throwing to a running back, they’re throwing to Dobbins. And I think he’ll have some chances in a game with serious scoring upside.

Sunday’s projected point total (47.5 points) is the highest of the season for the Chargers. That has a lot to do with the fact that the Bengals are offence-heavy and defence-optional.

Cincinnati ranks sixth in scoring offence and 26th in scoring defence. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Joe Burrow run up a big score for the Bengals, which would put L.A. into plenty of passing situations.

Dobbins has cashed this bet in six of nine games this year — including four of five when Edwards is playing.

If Edwards lightens the load a bit in the ground game, that should only make Dobbins more likely to see action as a receiver.

Key stat: Dobbins is averaging 3.1 targets per game and only has one drop this season.

Quick pick

Chase under 6.5 receptions (+106): How in my right mind can I fade Chase after last week’s spectacular performance?

Tee Higgins, who’s missed three straight games, practiced all week and is expected to play. His presence is great for the Bengals, but it likely means a reduction in targets for Chase.

Here’s the per-game volume Chase has seen with and without Higgins this year:

• With Higgins (five games): 7.4 targets, 5.8 catches
• Without Higgins (five games): 10.0 targets, 7.4 catches

The Chargers’ pass defence is solid, allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards and the third-fewest WR receptions this season.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 11/16/2024.

Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen doesn’t get old and we’re treated to another showdown this Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs.

The pregame narrative: I expect Allen to have an impact as a runner and help lead his Bills to victory at home. This three-leg, +420 SGP also includes a receiving prop on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.

Check out my Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 11 below.

Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Bills moneyline + Allen over 32.5 rushing yards + Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (+420)

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Bills moneyline (-130): The playoff agonies are what people remember most, but it hasn’t been all heartache for the Bills when they face the Chiefs.

Buffalo is 3-0 straight up — and ATS — in its past three regular-season matchups against Kansas City.

That might not salve any wounds for Bills fans, but it’s a reminder that this isn’t a one-sided rivalry in the Allen/Mahomes era.

This season, despite the Chiefs’ 9-0 record, the Bills (8-2) have often looked like a better overall team.

• Buffalo: 3rd in offensive EPA/play, 10th in defensive EPA/play, +97 point differential

• Kansas City: 11th in offensive EPA/play, 11th in defensive EPA/play, +58 point differential

Buffalo is 19-4 at home since the start of the 2022 season. I expect another win for the Bills on Sunday.

Other parlay picks

Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-118): This feels like a good week to see an outsized rushing effort from Allen.

Why? For one thing, his two leading red zone targets (Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid) were ruled out. Also, Allen has been known to run wild against Kansas City.

In five matchups against the Chiefs since 2021 — including playoffs — here’s what Allen has accomplished on the ground:

• 11.2 rush attempts/game
• 52.6 rush yards/game
• 4 TDs

Allen’s low-water mark in those games was 32 rush yards (twice). He had 10-plus attempts in each game.

Quarterback rushing stats can be unpredictable, but five games against one opponent in a three-season span is a healthy sample.

After turning eight carries into 50 yards last week, look for Allen to stay involved against a familiar foe.

Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (-113): Folks, here comes Travis Kelce.

After just 69 total receiving yards through his first three games, Kelce has 60-plus yards in five of his past six. And he’s doing his best work since Week 8.

• 12+ targets in three straight games
• 8+ catches in three straight games
• 84.7 yards/game

It’s no coincidence that Week 8 is when DeAndre Hopkins debuted with the Chiefs.

His presence has given defences another serious threat to worry about — leaving Kelce with a greater sum of winnable matchups.

Over the previous three seasons, Kelce went 4-1 against this receiving yards total when facing the Bills. He averaged 83.8 yards/game in those matchups on 9.0 targets.

Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 11/15/24.

Josh Allen has scored in back-to-back games against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I’m calling on him to find the end zone again in Week 11.

The pregame narrative: Allen is my favourite anytime touchdown scorer of the week, but he’s not the only player I’m targeting at plus money. In the 1 p.m window, look out for Brock Bowers and Demarcus Robinson.

Check out the best NFL Week 11 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 11 TD picks

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Best bet: Allen anytime TD (+115)

As some of Allen’s primary red zone targets fall away, the man under centre is looking better and better as an option to score.

• Keon Coleman, who leads the team in red zone targets (nine), is out.

• Dalton Kincaid, who’s second in red zone targets (eight), is also out.

James Cook is a capable running back in the red zone, but he doesn’t possess quite the same battering ram qualities of the 6-foot-5, 237-pound Allen.

Last week, Allen rumbled for 50 yards and a TD on eight carries against the Indianapolis Colts. He matched a season-high with five red zone rushes in that game.

Allen now has 19 red zone rush attempts this season, per Rotowire, which equates to 1.9 per game. With Coleman out and Kincaid trending that way, I think we’ll see at least that much volume for Allen near the end zone.

I try not to get wrapped up in narrative-based arguments, but Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Bills game should feel like a playoff game. After all, the AFC’s No. 1 seed is still very much up for grabs.

With that in mind, expect Allen to put his body on the line for his team. In five games against Kansas City since 2021, Allen has averaged 11.2 carries and scored four TDs.

Key stat: Allen has at least one rush attempt inside the 10-yard line in four of his past five games.

Quick picks

Robinson anytime TD (+275): Robinson isn’t the first Los Angeles Ram you think of as a receiving weapon. Or the second. But at this price, he’s an interesting option to score.

Robinson has big-play ability, collecting four receptions of 20-plus yards in the past three games alone. And his recent usage in the red zone has my attention.

• Targeted inside the five-yard line in back-to-back weeks

• Targeted inside the 10-yard line in four of his past five games

Since Week 8, which is when both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup, Robinson leads the Rams with four red zone targets.

That isn’t a ton, obviously, but it’s enough in a small sample for the veteran receiver to have some value.

Bowers anytime TD (+170): Usually, my preference when making TD picks is to look for guys who see ample targets in the red zone. For some reason, that hasn’t been the case with Bowers.

The stellar rookie tight end leads the Raiders in targets (73), catches (57) and yards (580) … but only seven of his targets have come in the red zone.

Since Davante Adams’ departure, though, it’s not like anyone else has stepped up as a go-to red zone target for the Las Vegas Raiders. So it’s still possible for Bowers to fill that void.

His six red zone targets since Week 5 are twice as many as any other Vegas pass-catcher.

And with 9.8 total targets per game in that span, I’m just hoping his overall involvement will translate to something good near the goal line.

Picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET on 11/15/2024.