The red-hot Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to face the Cleveland Browns in an all-AFC-North instalment of Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Jerry Jeudy seems to have gelled right away with Cleveland’s new starting quarterback, and I like Jeudy to continue hauling in passes. Elsewhere, look for at least one chunk play from Cedric Tillman and for Najee Harris to cash in on ample red zone opportunities.
Check out my Steelers vs. Browns prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 21.
Steelers vs. Browns prop picks
Go to full NFL betting markets
Best Bet: Jeudy over 3.5 receptions (-127)
Jameis Winston has thrown 40-plus passes in all three of his starts this year, which has led to a healthy target share for pretty much every Cleveland receiver.
If he keeps that up, it’ll be great news for Jeudy and Co. But even if the volume comes back to Earth a bit, I like the Browns’ WR1 to still see ample looks.
Jeudy has been Cleveland’s steadiest receiver with Winston under centre while also flashing his big-play ability.
In each of the past three games, Jeudy has …
- 8+ targets
- 5+ catches
- 70+ yards
Last week, he exploded for 142 yards on six catches, highlighted by an 89-yard touchdown. That type of effort helps a receiver stay on a quarterback’s good side.
Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s top defences, ranking No. 2 in scoring and No. 8 in yards allowed. But the Steelers’ best work is in stopping the ground game, not the aerial attack.
The Steelers allow the 18th-most passing yards per game on the 12th-most yards per attempt. By contrast, they’re fourth in rush yards per game and fifth in yards per rush.
Look for Winston and the Browns to continue sending a high volume of targets toward Jeudy in an effort to crack a tough Pittsburgh D.
Key stat: Jeudy leads the Browns in targets (72) and yards (560). He’s averaging 3.9 catches per game.
Quick pick
Tillman longest reception – Over 18.5 yards (-114): While I like Jeudy as a volume play for Cleveland, I view Tillman as more of a home run hitter.
- Tillman only caught three of eight targets last week, but two of them went for 20+ yards
- He now has four catches of 20+ yards in three weeks with Winston at QB
It’s clear the Browns are scheming some deep targets for Tillman, a second-year wideout from Tennessee who was drafted in the third round.
In three straight games before last week, Tillman saw 115-plus air yards each game, per Player Profiler.
Harris anytime TD (+100): Pittsburgh has two wins this year without scoring a touchdown, and Thursday’s over/under (36.5 points) suggests another ugly game is in the offing.
But if someone is going to score, it should be Harris. And at even-money odds, I’ll take that bet.
Harris only has three TDs this year, but they’ve all come in his past five games. And he’s had some fantastic red zone opportunities in that span:
- 4.4 red zone rushes/game
- 2+ carries inside the 10-yard line each game
- 1+ carries inside the 5-yard line each game
The Browns’ rush defence has been woeful this year, allowing 4.8 yards per attempt (27th in the NFL) and 14 TDs (29th). If the volume of top-quality carries persists, Harris should be able to capitalize.
Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET 11/20/2024.