The Atlanta Hawks wrap up their West Coast road trip tonight against Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.
The pregame narrative: Curry’s points prop is my favourite bet of the night as he draws a really compelling matchup. I’m also looking for Dyson Daniels to continue being a defensive menace and for Clint Capela to have an impact as a rebounder.
Check out my Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks for Nov. 20.
Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks
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Best Bet: Curry over 25.5 points (-122)
After missing three games with an ankle injury, Curry has come back with impressive efficiency. Look at his splits over his past seven matchups:
- 50.0 FG%
- 43.5 3PT%
- 92.0 FT%
That’s resulted in 25.0 PPG this month, and it would be higher if not for a couple of minutes limitations caused by blowouts.
Curry sat out the fourth quarter on Nov. 15 against Memphis as his Warriors cruised to victory. His playing time was also cut short in a 19-point loss against Cleveland on Nov. 8.
A blowout is a risk tonight, as Golden State is an 8.5-point home favourite against Atlanta. But if that’s the case, hopefully it’s because Curry puts up some big numbers early that leads to the separation.
Opposing guards tend to love their matchup against the Hawks, and why not? Guards are shooting an NBA-best 39.9% from 3-point range against Atlanta.
Curry is attempting just south of 10.0 threes per game, so his opportunity to rack up points from deep is tantalizing.
The Hawks have already found this out the hard way.
In Curry’s past five games against Atlanta (since 2021), he’s scored 30-plus points four times while averaging 6.2 threes.
Key stat: Curry has gone over 25.5 points in four of his past six games. Also, he’s averaged 27.9 PPG at home since the 2022-23 season.
Quick pick
Daniels over 3.5 steals/blocks (-122): Daniels was the centrepiece of Atlanta’s trade that sent Dejounte Murray to New Orleans, and so far it’s working out really, really well.
The third-year combo guard is exceptionally active on the defensive end, leading the NBA in steals (3.4/game) and deflections (7.0/game).
He’s not just a steals threat, though. Daniels swatted four shots last time out and is averaging 1.1 blocks per game.
That equates to 4.5 stocks (steals/blocks) per game on the season, and it makes this line look a bit low.
Daniels has gone over 3.5 stocks in eight of 13 games this season — including six of his past seven.
Capela over 8.5 rebounds (-108): Though he doesn’t play massive minutes, Capela grabs plenty of boards as the Hawks’ starting centre.
The 6-foot-10 veteran is especially on a roll right now, going over 8.5 rebounds in five of his past six games.
Atlanta and Golden State are both playing at top-five paces in the NBA right now, which should make for a game with plenty of possessions. And plenty of rebounds.
- GSW allows the most rebounds/game to opposing centres (18.1), per Betting Pros
- GSW allows the seventh-most rebounds/game overall (45.6)
- Capela has 9+ rebounds in 6/7 games vs. GSW since 2021
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/20/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.