Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

49ers vs. Packers Week 12 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Josh Jacobs to score, Green Bay to cover alt spread

Two NFC squads jockeying for wild-card position meet on Sunday afternoon as the Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay is the favourite, but I’m teasing through the zero to back the Pack. I also like Josh Jacobs to find the end zone again and for Jauan Jennings to exceed a very manageable yardage total.

Check out my 49ers vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions for Week 12 below.

49ers vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Packers +3.5 + Jacobs anytime TD + Jennings over 52.5 receiving yards (+325)

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Packers +3.5 (-278): 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has gotten the best of his buddy, Packers coach Matt LaFleur, more often than not. But the tide is turning.

LaFleur’s Packers are 2-4 against Shanahan’s 49ers, but Green Bay has covered this number in each of their past four meetings dating back to the 2020 season. That includes last year’s divisional playoff matchup in which Green Bay brought a lead into the fourth quarter as a 10.5-point underdog.

The Packers are favoured in this game, so I’ve paid up for quite a bit of cushion.

SF is 1-3 ATS on the road and has only covered -3.5 in three of its past nine games.

GB has covered +3.5 in eight of its past nine games and is 5-1 SU in its past six.

Pay attention to the injury report as kickoff approaches.

Nick Bosa and Trent Williams missed a pair of practices each to start the week, while Brock Purdy (throwing shoulder) and George Kittle (hamstring) logged limited sessions.

Other parlay picks

Jacobs anytime TD (-162): Green Bay’s red zone offence has been brutal this year, converting just 48.7% of opportunities into touchdowns.

Last week, Green Bay failed twice inside the 20-yard line thanks to a goal-line interception from Jordan Love and a failure to convert on fourth down.

If I had LaFleur’s number, here’s what I’d text him: Can we please give the ball to Jacobs more often in the most important part of the field?

The overall volume for Jacobs isn’t a concern. He’s averaging 19.9 touches and 102.4 scrimmage yards per week. And he’s found the end zone five times in his past six games.

After last week’s struggles against the Bears, the Packers should ensure that Jacobs is the focal point of their red zone attack.

San Francisco has allowed 13 rushing TDs so far, which ranks 27th in the NFL.

Jennings over 52.5 receiving yards (-117): Even with Brandon Aiyuk out for the year, Jennings is — at best — the fourth weapon you probably think of in the 49ers’ offence.

It’s time to rethink that.

The seventh-round pick from 2020 has really broken out in Year 4, posting the team lead in …

Yards/game (73.5)
Targets (58)
First downs (30)

This isn’t merely a situation where Jennings has been healthier than everyone else. He’s missed two games, after all.

But when he’s on the field, Jennings is someone Purdy is constantly looking at. Since Week 3, Jennings has been targeted on 29.9% of his routes, per Rotowire.

Jennings is coming off back-to-back weeks of 11 targets and 90-plus yards. Green Bay has plenty of other players to worry about, and this is not an ambitious ask of Jennings.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. on 11/22/24.

College football Week 13 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Florida and Indiana

Love ’em or hate ’em, the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers are at the centre of the college football world this weekend with serious playoff ramifications on the line.

The pregame narrative: Indiana is unbeaten against a laughably weak schedule … but the joyride is expected to end this week against the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. I’m riding with the Hoosiers to cover as heavy road dogs, though, while also banking a boatload of points with the Florida Gators against the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels.

Check out the best college football Week 13 picks for the action on Saturday, Nov. 23.

College football Week 13 picks

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Best Bet: Florida +10.5 (-106)

If you want to bet against Florida at The Swamp, be my guest. I won’t be joining you.

I know Ole Miss rolled Georgia last week, 28-10, as a home underdog. But Florida is coming off a chest-beating win of its own — a 27-16 defeat of LSU as a home dog.

The Gators are 6-1 ATS since Sept. 21. They’re 3-0 in Gainesville in that span, and they were underdogs in each of those games.

With that in mind, a 10.5-point cushion should be plenty.

Ole Miss lost by three points to the same LSU squad that Florida just beat, but I’m not here to play the common opponents game. This is about the Gators playing their best ball at home — and looking solid with DJ Lagway under centre.

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Lagway, 247’s top-rated QB in the 2024 class, has averaged 11.6 yards per attempt in three starts since taking over for the injured Graham Mertz. He’s a livewire, and he gives the Gators a chance to make something big happen anytime the offence is on the field.

Ole Miss still has the advantage under centre with Jaxson Dart — and top receiving threat Tre Harris is expected to return this week — so I’m not here to call for a Florida upset.

But I’ll gladly bank 10.5 points with a strong ATS squad that has played admirably at home.

Key stat: In SEC play, Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit-point favourite.

Quick pick

Indiana +11.5 (-130): How good are the Hoosiers? And can you fault a team that hasn’t played anybody good if they’ve dominated practically everyone in their path?

These are the unanswerable questions that hang over Saturday’s noon matchup at Ohio Stadium.

Indiana is enjoying its best season in history but hasn’t faced a ranked opponent yet. Then again, nine of its 10 wins have come by 14-plus points, and that has to count for something … right?

The spread suggests otherwise, but I’m not laying this number with the Buckeyes. They’ve played with their food too many times this year for me to trust that a blowout is coming:

Northwestern: Trailed 7-0 in the second quarter
Penn State: Trailed 10-0 in the first quarter
Nebraska: Trailed 17-14 in the fourth quarter
Iowa: Only led 7-0 at halftime

Indiana showed its first signs of concern last time out when it limped to a 20-15 win over Michigan with only a field goal on offence in the second half.

I’m choosing to view that as a wake-up call for the Hoosiers, who’ve since had a bye week to iron some things out. Count on Indiana and its No. 2 scoring offence (43.9 PPG) to be competitive.

Picks made at 1:22 p.m. on 11/22/2024.

College football Week 13 prop picks: NCAAF predictions on Jeremiah Smith, Jayden Maiava and Matthew Golden

Saturday’s college football slate is packed from noon through the late-night window. I’ve got three prop picks to cover the action.

The pregame narrative: Starting off, I like Ohio State Buckeyes wideout Jeremiah Smith to have another big game against an overmatched opponent. Elsewhere, look for Matthew Golden to find the end zone for the Texas Longhorns and for Jayden Maiava to build off a strong debut with the USC Trojans.

Check out the best college football prop picks for Week 13 action on Nov. 23.

College football prop picks

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Best Bet: Smith over 69.5 receiving yards (-125)

Whether or not you want to criticize the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers’ strength of schedule, there’s at least one thing that can’t be disputed. The Hoosiers haven’t seen a talent like Jeremiah Smith lining up out wide.

Smith, 247 Sports’ top-ranked national recruit in the 2024 class, is as game-breaking as advertised.

Leads the Big Ten in touchdown catches (9)
Has 70+ yards in 9/10 games
Is averaging 86.5 YPG

No. 2 Ohio State is known as a factory for producing NFL-calibre receivers. It’ll be a couple more years before the true freshman hears his name in the draft, but he’s well on his way.

And in a WR room full of potential Sunday stars, Smith is the one shining brightest.

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The 18-year-old is 253 yards clear of Ohio State’s second-leading receiver, Emeka Egbuka, who’s viewed by many as a first-rounder-in-waiting for the 2025 NFL Draft.

So, how are the Hoosiers going to stop Smith? I’m not confident they can.

Indiana has faced one top-30 passing offence this year: Maryland. None of the Terrapins’ receivers cleared this yardage total, but the team tagged IU’s secondary for 289 yards and three TDs.

Facing arguably the best receiver in the country, the Hoosiers should struggle to keep the clamps on Smith.

Key stat: Smith has averaged 87.8 receiving yards per game at home and cashed this bet in all six matchups.

Quick picks

Golden anytime TD (+155): I love this price as No. 3 Texas looks to score in bunches against the Kentucky Wildcats.

Golden, a transfer from Houston, is enjoying a solid junior year in Austin. The Longhorns like to spread the ball around, though, so his overall production (29 catches, 417 yards) doesn’t jump off the screen.

But he’s tied for the SEC lead in receiving TDs (eight) and has recently been a focal point of Texas’ red zone offence.

Golden has been targeted in the red zone in four of the past five games. He also has five TDs in just his past three games.

Maiava over 240.5 pass yards (-117): Back in September, USC earned a huge season-opening win over LSU with Miller Moss under centre. But now Moss is on the bench because the Trojans like what they have in Maiava.

The sophomore transfer from UNLV made his first start for USC last week. He completed 25-of-35 passes for 259 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.

One game isn’t a convincing sample, obviously. But Maiava went over this yardage total in seven of 12 starts as a true freshman at UNLV, too.

And on Saturday, his matchup against UCLA looks awfully juicy. The rival Bruins have allowed 245.7 pass yards per game, which ranks 101st in FBS.

USC has the fifth-highest pass play percentage in the country (60.4%) and should trust Maiava to air it out.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 11/22/2024.

Kings vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 22: Murray, Coffey to fill the net in +275 SGP

Friday night’s NBA Cup action concludes with the Los Angeles Clippers hosting the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: The Clippers will be shorthanded yet again tonight, with Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell sitting out. Still, I like L.A. to cover as home underdogs and am adding prop bets on Keegan Murray and Amir Coffey to round out this +275 SGP.

Check out my Kings vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 22.

Kings vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers +6.5 + Murray over 1.5 threes + Coffey over 12.5 points (+275)

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Clippers +5.5 (-186): Powell scored a game-high 31 points when the Clippers and Kings met two weeks ago in a game L.A. won on the road, 107-98. So his absence is definitely notable.

But the Powell-less Clippers handled themselves just fine on Wednesday, winning by 11 against the Orlando Magic as 3-point dogs.

Tonight’s spread is about the same, and I feel great about backing the Clips with a little extra cushion.

L.A. has won six straight games at Intuit Dome, and it was an underdog in the two most recent ones (vs. Magic, vs. Warriors).

The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their past five games, losing twice outright as favourites in that span.

SGP legs

Murray over 1.5 threes (-167): I’m hoping Murray can shoot his way out of a slump. And stop fouling so much.

Murray fouled out after playing just 22 minutes on Monday, which is about 15 minutes below his nightly average. He also racked up five fouls the game before.

If he can keep himself in check, canning two or more 3s shouldn’t be a tall order. He’s a career 37.8% shooter from deep and is attempting 5.8 shots beyond the arc this year.

Unfortunately, he’s only connecting at a 29.9% clip. But given his track record, I still think he’s worth a look.

Murray has cashed this bet in eight of 15 games, and he attempted six 3s against the Clippers when he last faced them. That type of volume would put him in a great spot tonight.

Coffey over 12.5 points (-152): James Harden is having a dreadfully inefficient season and Ivica Zubac can only do so much from the paint with Domantas Sabonis on his back. Tonight should be a night for Coffey to make a mark.

On Wednesday, in his first start of the season, Coffey scored 18 points in 33 minutes.

He’s averaging 12.2 PPG over his past 10 games, which includes a 14-point effort off the bench against the Kings.

Coffey is shooting 46.4% from 3-point range on 3.5 attempts per game. That number should trend up with Powell on the shelf.

The Kings are a nice matchup for Coffey to exploit beyond the arc. Sacramento allows the fourth-highest 3-point percentage (38.0%) and the third-most attempted 3s per game (40.0).

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 11/22/24.

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College football Week 13 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Florida, Indiana, Army’s Bryson Daily

Love ’em or hate ’em, the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers are at the centre of the college football world this weekend with serious playoff ramifications on the line.

The pregame narrative: Indiana is unbeaten against a laughably weak schedule … but the joyride is expected to end this week against the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. I’m riding with the Hoosiers to cover as heavy road dogs, though, while also banking a boatload of points with the Florida Gators against the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels.

Check out the best college football Week 13 picks for the action on Saturday, Nov. 23.

College football Week 13 picks

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Embed: #101075

Best Bet: Florida +10.5 (-110)

If you want to bet against Florida at The Swamp, be my guest. I won’t be joining you.

I know Ole Miss rolled Georgia last week, 28-10, as a home underdog. But Florida is coming off a chest-beating win of its own — a 27-16 defeat of LSU as a home dog.

The Gators are 6-1 ATS since Sept. 21. They’re 3-0 in Gainesville in that span, and they were underdogs in each of those games.

With that in mind, a 10.5-point cushion should be plenty.

Ole Miss lost by three points to the same LSU squad that Florida just beat, but I’m not here to play the common opponents game. This is about the Gators playing their best ball at home — and looking solid with DJ Lagway under centre.

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Lagway, 247’s top-rated QB in the 2024 class, has averaged 11.6 yards per attempt in three starts since taking over for the injured Graham Mertz. He’s a livewire, and he gives the Gators a chance to make something big happen anytime the offence is on the field.

Ole Miss still has the advantage under centre with Jaxson Dart — and top receiving threat Tre Harris is expected to return this week — so I’m not here to call for a Florida upset.

But I’ll gladly bank 10.5 points with a strong ATS squad that has played admirably at home.

Key stat: In SEC play, Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit-point favourite.

Quick picks

Indiana +13.5 (-109): How good are the Hoosiers? And can you fault a team that hasn’t played anybody good if they’ve dominated practically everyone in their path?

These are the unanswerable questions that hang over Saturday’s noon matchup at Ohio Stadium.

Indiana is enjoying its best season in history but hasn’t faced a ranked opponent yet. Then again, nine of its 10 wins have come by 14-plus points, and that has to count for something … right?

The spread suggests otherwise, but I’m not laying this number with the Buckeyes. They’ve played with their food too many times this year for me to trust that a blowout is coming:

Northwestern: Trailed 7-0 in the second quarter
Penn State: Trailed 10-0 in the first quarter
Nebraska: Trailed 17-14 in the fourth quarter
Iowa: Only led 7-0 at halftime

Indiana showed its first signs of concern last time out when it limped to a 20-15 win over Michigan with only a field goal on offence in the second half.

I’m choosing to view that as a wake-up call for the Hoosiers, who’ve since had a bye week to iron some things out. Count on Indiana and its No. 2 scoring offence (43.9 PPG) to be competitive.

Bryson Daily anytime TD scorer (-104): The No. 18 Army Black Knights are 14-point underdogs against the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but I’m not worried about the game script for this pick.

If Army is going to get into the end zone, it’ll almost certainly be Daily carrying the ball in.

Daily has a whopping 21 rushing TDs in just eight games
He has 2+ TDs in 7/8 games
He’s coming off back-to-back games with 30+ rush attempts

Daily averages 6.1 yards/rush, which ranks 25th in the country. Then again, Notre Dame has held its opponents to 3.5 yards/rush, which is 24th in FBS.

It’s a bit of an unstoppable-force-versus-immovable-object situation, but so much of what Army does runs through Daily. At near-even money, I like the value on him to score.

Picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 11/21/2024.

Magic vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 21: Ride with Wagner, alt under in +250 SGP

In the nightcap of the NBA’s four-game slate on Thursday, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Orlando Magic.

The pregame narrative: Orlando has been one of the toughest teams on the defensive end this season, which makes an alt under look like a nice play tonight. This +250 SGP also features prop bets on Anthony Davis and Franz Wagner.

Check out my Magic vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 21.

Magic vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Under 222.5 points + Davis over 11.5 rebounds + Wagner over 22.5 points (+250)

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Under 222.5 points (-205): Unders are red hot for Orlando this month, cashing in nine of 11 games and seven in a row.

On the season, 12 of the Magic’s 16 games have gone under this total. They also recently had a streak of six consecutive games holding their opponents under 100 points, which is quite a feat in the modern NBA.

The Lakers, who rank fourth in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating, aren’t as successful defending their own net. But neither team plays at an above-average pace, so I think Orlando can turn this game into a bit of a slog.

Dating back to the 2021-22 season, Orlando and L.A. have gone under this total in five of six matchups.

SGP legs

Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-177): Davis has never won a rebounding title, but he’s consistently one of the best rebounders in the league. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Davis is averaging 12.5 RPG.

He’s a bit behind that number this year (11.4 RPG) but moving in the right direction. Davis has cashed this bet in four straight games.

Orlando isn’t an amazing matchup for opposing rebounders, but it’s not a terrible one, either. The Magic rank 14th in rebound rate (50.3%) and have allowed a player to cash this bet in three of their past five games.

Last season, Davis hauled in 19 and 13 rebounds, respectively, in his two matchups against Orlando.

Wagner over 22.5 points (-278): Wagner had a quiet night in Los Angeles yesterday (against the Clippers), but I think he can bounce back in the same building on Thursday.

Prior to Wednesday’s 14-point effort on 5-of-11 shooting, he’d cashed this bet in seven consecutive games.

Wagner is averaging 22.3 PPG on the season, which might make this look like a questionable pick given the juice. But it’s important to note that Paolo Banchero has been out since the start of this month, which raises Wagner’s ceiling as a volume shooter.

With Banchero (five games): 12.8 FGA (51.6 FG%), 17.8 PPG
Without Banchero (11 games): 19.9 FGA (45.7 FG%), 24.4 PPG

As Banchero remains sidelined with an oblique injury, Wagner should continue to shoot enough to cash this number regularly.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 11/21/24.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 21: With Barnes questionable, fade Reid and back Poeltl

Scottie Barnes is questionable to play against the Minnesota Timberwolves after logging a full practice on Wednesday, and that situation has influenced my prop picks for tonight.

The pregame narrative: The presence of the Toronto Raptors’ brightest star is partially why I’m looking to fade Naz Reid’s rebounding total for Thursday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl should still be able to contribute as a rebounder for the home team.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Reid under 5.5 rebounds (-150)

With or without Barnes on the court tonight, I’m skeptical that Reid can clear this over.

Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year is still coming off the bench, which caps his workload potential as he tends to see 22-26 minutes on most nights.

So far in those minutes, he’s routinely coming in under a 5.5-rebound total.

5.2 RPG on the season
Under 5.5 rebounds in 10/14 games
3.9 RPG in his past seven games

Minnesota and Toronto both have 7-footers at centre, and both squads allow bottom-10 rebounding totals per game. Simply put, there just might not be a lot of rebounds to go around.

Reid finished with four rebounds over 21 minutes when he saw the Raptors on Oct. 26.

Barnes played in that game and was one of four players who out-rebounded Reid, finishing with eight boards. If Barnes does return tonight, this looks like a smash play to me.

Key stat: Reid has finished under 5.5 rebounds in six of his past seven games.

Quick pick

Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-134): Poeltl had 10 rebounds when he faced the T-Wolves last month, and that was in 30 minutes of game action.

The big man’s minutes have ticked up since then, and his rebounding volume has, too.

Poeltl has averaged 12.5 RPG over his past 12 games, cashing this bet eight times in that span — including four of his past six.

Ideally this pick works in concert with the Reid fade. If Poeltl goes over 10.5 rebounds tonight, that should make it more likely that Reid goes under 5.5.

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 21: With Barnes questionable, fade Reid and back Poeltl

Scottie Barnes is questionable to play against the Minnesota Timberwolves after logging a full practice on Wednesday, and that situation has influenced my prop picks for tonight.

The pregame narrative: The presence of the Toronto Raptors’ brightest star is partially why I’m looking to fade Naz Reid’s rebounding total for Thursday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl should still be able to contribute as a scorer for the home team.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks

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Embed: #100973

Best Bet: Reid under 5.5 rebounds (-127)

With or without Barnes on the court tonight, I’m skeptical that Reid can clear this over.

Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year is still coming off the bench, which caps his workload potential as he tends to see 22-26 minutes on most nights.

So far in those minutes, he’s routinely coming in under a 5.5-rebound total.

5.2 RPG on the season
Under 5.5 rebounds in 10/14 games
3.9 RPG in his past seven games

Minnesota and Toronto both have 7-footers at centre, and both squads allow bottom-10 rebounding totals per game. Simply put, there just might not be a lot of rebounds to go around.

Reid finished with four rebounds over 21 minutes when he saw the Raptors on Oct. 26.

Barnes played in that game and was one of four players who out-rebounded Reid, finishing with eight boards. If Barnes does return tonight, this looks like a smash play to me.

Key stat: Reid has finished under 5.5 rebounds in six of his past seven games.

Quick pick

Poeltl over 15.5 points (-105): If Barnes suits up, that’ll take a bite out of everyone else’s scoring potential — but I still think Poeltl can hit this over.

Remember, Barnes is a do-it-all player for the Raptors who is comfortable facilitating, too. He led the team in assists last year (6.1/game) and sits at 6.0 APG so far this year.

Poeltl is a guy that Barnes and the rest of the Raptors should be feeding right now.

17.1 PPG on 60.8% shooting this season

16+ points in 8/15 games

25+ points in three straight games

The Timberwolves allow the 11th-most points per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros. Toronto should continue to lean on Poeltl, especially if Barnes needs an easing-in process.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.

NFL Week 12 parlay picks: Bet on Broncos, Texans to cover alt spreads in +235 ticket

After cashing my NFL parlay last weekend, I’m back at it again with another three-legger that’s fading a trio of awful teams.

The pregame narrative: Betting against the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders has been awfully profitable this year, and now you can fade all three in one place with my +235 parlay. I’ve teased down a trio of favourites’ spreads to build this ticket.

Check out my NFL Week 12 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 12 parlay picks

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Parlay: Texans -6.5 + Commanders -5.5 + Broncos -2.5 (+235)

Texans -6.5 (-167): Nico Collins didn’t have a smash week in his return from injury on Monday night, but Houston did put up 34 points. Collins’ presence means a ton for the Texans’ offensive ceiling.

So does home-field advantage, which the Texans have this Sunday.

Since last season, Houston has the fourth-best home record in the NFL (11-4). The team is +4.2 points per game against the spread in those matchups too, per Team Rankings.

I’ve shaved a couple of points off Sunday’s line, but that might not be necessary.

Tennessee is 1-9 ATS this year and hasn’t covered since September

The Titans have lost by 7+ points in 7/8 losses

Houston went 2-0 ATS in this matchup last year

Other parlay picks

Commanders -5.5 (-239): The Washington Commanders have lost back-to-back one-score games against the Steelers and Eagles. But now they get a soft landing at home against one of the NFL’s emerging doormats.

Dallas is on quite a slide, losing five in a row straight up and ATS. It doesn’t help that Dak Prescott is out, but the defence is also an abomination.

31st in points allowed (29.3/game)
27th in yards allowed (365.7/game)
27+ points allowed in five straight

For three games with Cooper Rush as the primary quarterback, Dallas has been outscored by 58 points. The Cowboys have also lost by six-plus points in five straight.

Washington is 7-3-1 ATS, covering in four of five home games.

Last month, the Commanders beat up on the Browns and Panthers at Northwest Stadium, and the Cowboys are in that same tier now.

Go to full NFL Week 12 betting markets.

Broncos -2.5 (-209): The Denver Broncos are rolling, and after three straight weeks of playoff-calibre opponents they get to face a spiralling Raiders squad.

Las Vegas is on a six-game losing skid, and each of those losses has come by five or more points — including a 34-18 loss in Denver last month.

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as favourites this year, winning each of those games by 14-plus points.

Bo Nix is playing with confidence (257.3 yards/game, 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his past four games), and a field goal margin of victory isn’t asking much.

NFL picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 11/20/24.

NFL Week 12 parlay picks: Bet on Broncos, Texans to cover alt spreads in +256 ticket

After cashing a +307 NFL parlay last weekend, I’m back at it again with another three-legger that’s fading a trio of awful teams.

The pregame narrative: Betting against the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders has been awfully profitable this year, and now you can fade all three in one place with my +256 parlay. I’ve teased down a trio of favourites’ spreads to build this ticket.

Check out my NFL Week 12 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 12 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 12 betting markets.

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Parlay: Texans -6.5 + Commanders -5.5 + Broncos -2.5 (+256)

Texans -6.5 (-152): Nico Collins didn’t have a smash week in his return from injury on Monday night, but Houston did put up 34 points. Collins’ presence means a ton for the Texans’ offensive ceiling.

So does home-field advantage, which the Texans have this Sunday.

Since last season, Houston has the fourth-best home record in the NFL (11-4). The team is +4.2 points per game against the spread in those matchups too, per Team Rankings.

I’ve shaved a couple of points off Sunday’s line, but that might not be necessary.

Tennessee is 1-9 ATS this year and hasn’t covered since September

The Titans have lost by 7+ points in 7/8 losses

Houston went 2-0 ATS in this matchup last year

Other parlay picks

Commanders -5.5 (-250): The Washington Commanders have lost back-to-back one-score games against the Steelers and Eagles. But now they get a soft landing at home against one of the NFL’s emerging doormats.

Dallas is on quite a slide, losing five in a row straight up and ATS. It doesn’t help that Dak Prescott is out, but the defence is also an abomination.

31st in points allowed (29.3/game)
27th in yards allowed (365.7/game)
27+ points allowed in five straight

For three games with Cooper Rush as the primary quarterback, Dallas has been outscored by 58 points. The Cowboys have also lost by six-plus points in five straight.

Washington is 7-3-1 ATS, covering in four of five home games.

Last month, the Commanders beat up on the Browns and Panthers at Northwest Stadium, and the Cowboys are in that same tier now.

Broncos -2.5 (-200): The Denver Broncos are rolling, and after three straight weeks of playoff-calibre opponents they get to face a spiralling Raiders squad.

Las Vegas is on a six-game losing skid, and each of those losses has come by five or more points — including a 34-18 loss in Denver last month.

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as favourites this year, winning each of those games by 14-plus points.

Bo Nix is playing with confidence (257.3 yards/game, 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his past four games), and a field goal margin of victory isn’t asking much.

NFL picks made at 1:55 p.m. on 11/20/24.