Scottie Barnes is questionable to play against the Minnesota Timberwolves after logging a full practice on Wednesday, and that situation has influenced my prop picks for tonight.
The pregame narrative: The presence of the Toronto Raptors’ brightest star is partially why I’m looking to fade Naz Reid’s rebounding total for Thursday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl should still be able to contribute as a rebounder for the home team.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 21.
Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks
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Best Bet: Reid under 5.5 rebounds (-150)
With or without Barnes on the court tonight, I’m skeptical that Reid can clear this over.
Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year is still coming off the bench, which caps his workload potential as he tends to see 22-26 minutes on most nights.
So far in those minutes, he’s routinely coming in under a 5.5-rebound total.
- 5.2 RPG on the season
- Under 5.5 rebounds in 10/14 games
- 3.9 RPG in his past seven games
Minnesota and Toronto both have 7-footers at centre, and both squads allow bottom-10 rebounding totals per game. Simply put, there just might not be a lot of rebounds to go around.
Reid finished with four rebounds over 21 minutes when he saw the Raptors on Oct. 26.
Barnes played in that game and was one of four players who out-rebounded Reid, finishing with eight boards. If Barnes does return tonight, this looks like a smash play to me.
Key stat: Reid has finished under 5.5 rebounds in six of his past seven games.
Quick pick
Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-134): Poeltl had 10 rebounds when he faced the T-Wolves last month, and that was in 30 minutes of game action.
The big man’s minutes have ticked up since then, and his rebounding volume has, too.
Poeltl has averaged 12.5 RPG over his past 12 games, cashing this bet eight times in that span — including four of his past six.
Ideally this pick works in concert with the Reid fade. If Poeltl goes over 10.5 rebounds tonight, that should make it more likely that Reid goes under 5.5.
Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.