Dragging a seven-game losing skid with them, the Toronto Raptors host the Indiana Pacers at Scotiabank Arena tonight.
The pregame narrative: The road team won all four matchups between these teams last year, but I’m not picking a side on Monday. I’m backing the over on a teased-down total and looking for Bennedict Mathurin and Jakob Poeltl to chip in for their teams.
Check out my Pacers vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 18.
Pacers vs. Raptors predictions
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Parlay: Over 229.5 points + Poeltl over 9.5 rebounds + Mathurin over 19.5 points (+255)
Over 229.5 points (-159): I don’t expect Toronto and Indiana to run up the score quite like they did last season, but this is still a very attainable total for them to clear.
All four of their head-to-head matchups last year went over the 250-point marker. Indiana played at the second-fastest pace in the league in 2023-24, though, which certainly helped.
The Pacers rank 16th in possessions per game this season, while Toronto is up a bit higher at 13th. Not lightning quick, but not exactly slow either.
I’m hoping these teams capture some of the high-scoring matchups that fuelled last season’s results, but there are other reasons to like this pick:
- The over is 9-2 in Indiana’s past 11 games
- The over is 4-2 in Toronto’s home games, with an average total of 237.5 points
SGP legs
Poeltl over 9.5 rebounds (-240): Nine years after he was a lottery pick for the Raptors, Poeltl is putting together some of the production you might expect from a once-highly-touted hooper.
The seven-footer is posting career-highs in minutes (32.6), points (16.2) and rebounds (11.6), averaging a double-double for the first time.
His steadiness on the glass is part of what makes Poeltl a good guy to bet on this season:
- 8+ rebounds in every game
- 10+ rebounds in 9/14 games
Last year, Poeltl had 10-plus rebounds in two of three matchups against the Pacers. Indiana is allowing the 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.
Mathurin over 19.5 points (-177): The last time Mathurin faced the Raptors, he filled the next for 34 points on 11-of-15 shooting.
That was last season, but it’s a nice indicator of what the Montreal native is capable of. And after a few quiet games to begin this campaign, he’s putting up some really encouraging numbers.
Check out what Mathurin has accomplished over his past nine games:
- 51.6 FG%
- 45.7 3PT%
- 21.9 PPG
- 20+ points in 6/9 games
Mathurin slid into the Pacers’ starting lineup at the beginning of November and hasn’t left. In a game where I expect a hearty point total, look for the third-year wing to do his part.
Picks made at 10:25 a.m. on 11/18/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.