On a back-to-back, the Chicago Bulls welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Windy City tonight.
The pregame narrative: I’m taking a teased-up under for Thursday’s point total, which features two teams that are particularly adept at defending the perimeter. This +330 SGP also involves a fade of Coby White and modest overs for Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Bulls same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 7.
Timberwolves vs. Bulls predictions
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Parlay: Under 235.5 points + Edwards over 4.5 rebounds + White under 21.5 points + Conley over 7.5 points (+330)
Under 235.5 points (-265): Chicago won both matchups against Minnesota straight up as an underdog last year, but I don’t want to mess with either side tonight. Instead, I like a rested Timberwolves squad to help keep scoring down.
Minnesota, which has been off the past two days, ranks in the top 10 in points allowed (109.7/game) and opponent effective field goal percentage (51.8%).
All seven of the Timberwolves’ games have gone under this number. Five of the Bulls’ eight games have gone under this number, too.
Chicago ranks first in pace but 28th in offensive rating. If the Timberwolves can bog things down, this under should easily hit again.
SGP legs
Edwards over 4.5 rebounds (-215): Edwards is a high-flying scorer first and foremost, but he’s also an effective rebounder from the backcourt.
He’s averaged at least 4.7 rebounds per game in all five of his NBA seasons, and he’s cashed this bet in six of seven games.
Last year, Edwards posted double-digit rebound totals in both matchups against the Bulls, so asking for merely half of that production seems quite reasonable.
Chicago has allowed the third-most rebounds per game so far this season.
White under 21.5 points (-275): Roughly two-thirds of White’s shots this season have come from beyond the arc, and that’s why I want to fade him as a scorer tonight.
Minnesota has held opponents to 31.3% shooting from 3-point range and is allowing the fewest 3s per game (10.9).
Last night, White went 3-of-13 from the field (and 1-of-7 from deep) to produce a season-low eight points. He’s gone under this total in six of eight games.
Conley over 7.5 points (-230): Year 18 has been a grind for Conley so far, as he’s shooting just 30.0% from the floor through seven games. But even a modest bounce-back should lead to him clearing this total.
Conley is coming off his best showing of the season, in which he had 11 points on 4-of-8 shooting. He’s now gone over 7.5 points in four of his past five matchups.
Last year, he cleared this total in both games against Chicago — piling up 19 points in his most recent meeting, which came in March.
NBA picks made at 9:40 a.m. on 11/07/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.