The surging Phoenix Suns are on the road tonight to face the defending conference champion Dallas Mavericks.
The pregame narrative: Phoenix and Dallas played a relatively low-scoring game in their first go-round this season, and I expect more of the same tonight. But that doesn’t mean Luka Doncic or Devin Booker should hold back on the offensive side of the floor.
Check out my Suns vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 8.
Suns vs. Mavericks predictions
Go to full NBA betting markets
Parlay: Under 235.5 points + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Booker over 5.5 assists (+350)
Under 235.5 points (-180): Dating back to Christmas Day of last season, the under is 4-0 in the past four matchups between the Suns and Mavericks.
Granted, the projected total was set in the 240s for three of those games. But in their Oct. 26 matchup in Phoenix — with an over/under of 230 points — the teams combined for just 216.
We know there’s no shortage of scoring savants in this matchup, but defence has been a point of pride for both sides so far this year. Dallas and Phoenix rank third and eighth, respectively, in defensive rating.
The under is 35-22 (61.4%) in Dallas’ home games since the start of last season. That’s the second-highest rate in the NBA in that span.
SGP legs
Doncic over 2.5 threes (-225): Even if scoring is relatively low, Doncic will be a tough guy to keep quiet.
Last year’s scoring champ has exploded in each of his past five matchups against the Suns, averaging 39.8 points in those games. A key part of that scoring success is 3-point volume.
- In those five games against Phoenix, Doncic is shooting 40.0% from deep on 12.0 attempts per game.
- He’s cashed this bet in four straight against the Suns, including a 5-for-13 showing last month.
- Doncic is averaging 3.3 made 3s so far after a career-high 4.1 made 3s last season.
Simply put, he’s reliable against this line.
Booker over 5.5 assists (-148): As a shooting guard, Booker might not seem like a guy capable of racking up assists. As it turns out, his threat to score makes him an effective passer.
- According to NBA.com player tracking data, Booker is fifth on the Suns in passes per game, but he’s second in terms of potential assists per game (10.5). Potential assists are tallied as any pass that immediately leads to a shot, and thus would result in an assist if the shot went in.
- Booker, who averaged a career-high 6.9 assists last season, has cashed this bet in four consecutive games.
- The Mavericks allow the most assists per game to opposing shooting guards (5.6), per Betting Pros, and Booker has averaged 7.2 APG in his past five matchups against them.
NBA picks made at 9:00 a.m. on 11/08/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.