Two unders and an over are on my ticket for this week’s NFL prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Travis Kelce is cruising right now, and he has some promising history against the Denver Broncos that leads me to believe he’ll go over his receiving yards prop on Sunday. Elsewhere, J.K. Dobbins and Marvin Harrison Jr. are staring down some tough defensive matchups.
Check out the best NFL Week 10 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 10 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 10 betting markets.
Best bet: Kelce over 57.5 receiving yards (-117)
After a slow start to the season, Kelce is really taking off.
Kelce only had 69 total receiving yards over his first three games … but now he has 70-plus in four of five games since.
Last week, the four-time All-Pro tight end set season-highs in targets (16), catches (14) and yards (100). Even with DeAndre Hopkins in the mix, Kelce is clearly the lead dog in the Kansas City Chiefs attack.
I’m not worried about Hopkins’ presence harshing Kelce’s receiving volume. In fact, it’s probably for the best that the Chiefs have multiple go-to options so opposing teams can’t key on Kelce quite as much.
The Denver Broncos are a tough matchup for pass-catchers. They allow the sixth-fewest pass yards per game and rank No. 3 in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. But Kelce hasn’t had much of an issue against them in the recent meetings.
Over the previous two seasons, Kelce has averaged 74.0 receiving yards in four games against his AFC West foe. Last year, he saw nine targets apiece in both matchups and totalled 182 yards.
Kelce is trending up, and his career average of 70.4 yards/game suggests that he’s a solid pick at this number.
Key stat: Over his past five games, Kelce has averaged 73.2 yards on 10.4 targets per game.
Quick picks
Dobbins under 65.5 rushing yards (-112): Not a lot is going right for the Tennessee Titans this season, but they’ve been one of the best squads when it comes to stopping the run.
Tennessee has the No. 1 total defence this season and is allowing the fifth-lowest rushing success rate.
Last week, the Patriots’ tailbacks combined for 15 yards on 12 attempts against the Titans. On the season, only one tailback (Jahmyr Gibbs) has gone over this number against them.
Dobbins has steady volume for the run-heavy Chargers, but he’s only gone over 20 carries once this season. He’s gone under 65.5 rush yards in four of his past six games.
Harrison under 46.5 receiving yards (-115): Harrison needs to break out of his funk, but this isn’t an ideal matchup for him to do that.
The New York Jets allow the third-fewest yards per game to opposing receivers, and their defence allows the lowest success rate per dropback.
Harrison only has 18 catches in his past six games, and he’s gone under this yardage five times in that span. I’m sure the rookie wideout will turn things around at some point, but this isn’t a spot where I expect him to find his footing.
Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 11/07/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.