Jordan Horrobin

Two of the NFL’s top teams in their respective conferences meet on Sunday afternoon as the Baltimore Ravens host the Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: I expect a close game between two strong teams, which is why I’m teasing up the spread on the underdog Eagles. This +375 SGP also features Jalen Hurts as an anytime TD scorer and a prop bet on Mark Andrews.

Check out my Eagles vs. Ravens same-game parlay predictions for Week 13 below.

Eagles vs. Ravens same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Eagles +7.5 + Hurts anytime TD + Andrews over 34.5 rec. yards (+375)

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Eagles +7.5 (-250): This is one of those games where neither team deserves to be an underdog, but that label falls on the visiting Eagles.

Keep in mind that the Eagles (9-2) have won seven games in a row, and one of their two losses this year came by a single point.

Also, Philadelphia has a +97 point differential, which is the third-best in the NFL. Baltimore’s point differential (+70) ranks sixth.

The standard spread for this game is Ravens -3, which I think the Eagles can cover. But teasing this to 7.5 points puts it at a number that Baltimore has failed to cover in nine of 12 games.

Philly and Baltimore are both built on churning the clock with high-volume rushing attacks. The fewer possessions this game has, the greater the chances that it’ll be decided by a single possession.

Other parlay picks

Hurts anytime TD (-134): Hurts didn’t score last week, as Saquon Barkley romped into the end zone twice while amassing 302 scrimmage yards.

But there’s still real value on Hurts as an anytime TD scorer. The red zone opportunities speak for themselves.

• On the season, Hurts has 2+ red zone carries in 10/11 games.

• He’s had 2+ carries inside the 10-yard line in five of his past six games (14 attempts total).

• Hurts has 1+ TDs in 7/11 games, and he’d scored in five straight games entering Week 12.

It’s fair for him to take a back seat when Barkley is setting the world on fire, but it’s not like the Eagles are going to completely stray from their “tush push” savant.

Andrews over 34.5 receiving yards (-117): It’s been a rare sight this season, but Mark Andrews looked like a dominant TE1 for the Ravens last week.

Though he had the lowest snap share of Baltimore’s three tight ends, Andrews saw five targets — in just 14 routes — and turned those into five catches for 44 yards and a touchdown.

Isaiah Likely, who led the TE room in snaps, didn’t see a single target.

Even if things are a bit more even this Sunday, Andrews has carved out enough of a role that I expect him to cash this over. He’s averaging 44.8 yards over his past eight games, clearing this mark six times.

The Eagles have the No. 1 defence in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com. If Baltimore finds itself in more dropback situations because of the matchup, that’s an even better sign for Andrews.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. on 11/29/24.

I’m locked into Sunday’s 4 p.m. slate for my three NFL prop bets of the week.

The pregame narrative: A.J. Brown is a menace with a favourable matchup, so the over on his receiving yards looks like a strong play. Elsewhere, Taysom Hill should stay involved for the New Orleans Saints.

Check out the best NFL Week 13 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 13 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 13 betting markets.

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Best bet: Brown over 90.5 receiving yards (-115)

The Philadelphia Eagles run the ball more often (and arguably more successfully) than any other team. But I’m not sure that strategy will work on the road against the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore allows the fewest yards per rush (3.5), and its defence ranks second in rush success rate (31.6%), per RBSDM.com.

But for as adept as the Ravens are at stopping the run, they are a gettable group through the air. And that’s where Brown comes in.

Brown, coming off his second game of 100-plus yards in the past three weeks, is an elite big-play receiver who also sees plenty of volume.

• Since Week 6, Brown leads the NFL with a 31.9% target share.

• Brown’s 13.1 average depth of target is a career-high, per Rotowire.

DeVonta Smith missed practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury, so his status will be one to watch ahead of Sunday. If Smith is sidelined — or even limited — that’ll only enhance Brown’s stellar opportunity.

Key stat: Baltimore has allowed the second-most yards per game to opposing WRs (185.8).

Quick picks

Hill over 62.5 rushing/receiving yards (-114): Hill is a borderline position-less football player. He was drafted as a quarterback, is listed as a tight end and has six rushing TDs in his past five games.

No matter what position he’s in, it’s clear he can still be a productive asset for the New Orleans Saints in Year 8.

Prior to the Saints’ Week 12 bye, Hill exploded for 188 scrimmage yards and three TDs. He now has 40-plus scrimmage yards in four straight games.

What’s more compelling to me is Hill’s usage in two weeks under new head coach Darren Rizzi. Hill, who worked with Rizzi for years in the special teams unit, might be a favourite in Rizzi’s system.

Hill is only averaging 7.4 touches on the season, but he has 21 touches in the past two games.

Mike Evans over 57.5 receiving yards (-114): A hamstring injury cost Evans a few games recently, but he returned in excellent form in Week 12.

• Evans caught five of six targets for a team-high 68 yards last Sunday against the New York Giants.

• He only had a 58% snap share, which is below his typical average of 70-85% and suggests he’ll see an uptick in usage this week.

Evans has a fantastic matchup against a Carolina Panthers squad that ranks 32nd in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed.

In his past five matchups against the Panthers (since 2021), Evans has averaged 115.2 yards and cashed this prop four times.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 11/29/2024.

The two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: This game looks like a blowout on paper, but I’m still backing a pair of Raiders — Brock Bowers and Ameer Abdullah — to make some noise. On the Chiefs’ side, Patrick Mahomes is on a hot streak right now that’s worth tailing.

Check out my Raiders vs. Chiefs prop picks for Week 13 below.

Raiders vs. Chiefs prop picks

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Best Bet: Bowers over 6.5 receptions (-103)

Bowers should be Aidan O’Connell’s safety blanket today.

The Chiefs rank No. 8 in scoring defence and No. 4 in total defence, posing a daunting matchup for an inexperienced quarterback taking the reins on a short week.

But that’s where Bowers comes in. The rookie tight end is performing well beyond his years, commanding the NFL’s fifth-highest target share since Week 5 (29.8%), per Fantasy Pros.

Why did I pick Week 5 as the starting point? That aligns with the first of three consecutive games in which O’Connell saw some or all of the action as Vegas’ quarterback.

Check out Bowers’ production in Weeks 5-7:

• at Broncos: 8 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD (12 targets)
• vs. Steelers: 9 catches, 71 yards (10 targets)
• at Rams: 10 catches, 93 yards (14 targets)

O’Connell returned to the bench and Bowers’ targets diminished in the following two weeks. He only had five catches against the Chiefs in Week 8 … but to be fair, he only saw five targets in that game.

All told, Bowers is averaging 7.7 receptions on 10.7 targets in his past seven games. He’s the best weapon the Raiders have, and AOC should look to him consistently.

Key stat: The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions per game (6.3) and yards per game (72.5) to opposing tight ends this season.

Quick pick

Mahomes over 249.5 passing yards (-114): The Chiefs are 13-point home favourites, so this might not seem like an ideal game script for Mahomes to air it out.

But he’s found a groove in recent weeks that I believe makes this number playable. Here are Mahomes’ numbers over his past five games:

• 256.8 yards/game
• 260+ yards in 4/5 games
• 12 TDs
• 3 INTs
• 71.7% completion rate

It just so happens that DeAndre Hopkins joined the Chiefs five games ago, and I don’t view that as a coincidence. This strong recent run also includes a 262-yard performance for Mahomes against the Raiders.

Abdullah anytime TD (+240): Las Vegas is a hefty underdog and isn’t likely to score a lot of points. But at this price, I’m digging the opportunity for Abdullah.

• With Zamir White ruled out and Alexander Mattison listed as questionable — after limited practices throughout the week — Abdullah is set up for hefty involvement.

• He saw a 90% snap share last week and out-snapped Mattison in the previous two games that they were both on the field.

Abdullah has always been more of a scatback than a between-the-tackles runner, so he should continue to get touches even if the Chiefs run up a big lead.

Last week, his first of the year as a starter, Abdullah turned 13 touches into 65 yards and a touchdown. He had two carries in the red zone and one target inside the 10-yard line.

Picks made at 9:29 a.m. ET 11/29/2024.

Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving tripleheader concludes at Lambeau Field with a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay is 6-1 in its past seven games, and I like the home team to win a chilly prime-time showdown. In the prop market, Josh Jacobs is a logical anytime TD play, while both tight ends (Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith) should make their mark.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions for a special Thanksgiving edition of Thursday Night Football in Week 13.

Dolphins vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Packers moneyline + Jacobs anytime TD + Kraft over 24.5 receiving yards + Smith over 39.5 receiving yards (+500)

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Packers moneyline (-177): After several nail-biting wins — including one in Chicago that should’ve been a loss — the Packers needed a statement victory. They got one last week, treating a home crowd to a 38-10 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners were beaten up and haven’t risen to expectations this year, but it was still a commendable week for the Packers. Green Bay dominated the clock and ran the ball at will.

Up next is a Miami squad that has won three games in a row, though each of those games was against a sub-.500 opponent.

The Dolphins are 0-4 against winning teams this season. And of course, Tua Tagovailoa is carrying a cold weather stigma into the Frozen Tundra.

According to Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games that fall below 40 degrees Fahrenheit. It’ll be below-freezing — and potentially snowy — in Green Bay on Thursday.

Other parlay picks

Jacobs anytime TD (-182): I called for a Jacobs touchdown last week in light of Green Bay’s red zone woes. He responded with three.

The Packers entered Week 12 with a disastrous 48.7% TD rate on red zone drives, and my thought was that they weren’t relying on Jacobs enough in the most important part of the field.

Well, that changed last Sunday. Jacobs saw a season-high seven carries in the red zone, per Rotowire — including five inside the five-yard line.

Jacobs has six TDs over his past four games, with 11 carries inside the 10-yard line in that span. Keep feeding one of the NFL’s most productive running backs and good things should happen.

Kraft over 24.5 receiving yards (-195): Romeo Doubs, the Packers’ top receiving target, missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday because of a concussion and seems unlikely to play. That’ll open up more opportunities for other pass-catchers, and Kraft has my eye.

Kraft only has three targets over his past two games, but he’s still averaging 3.8 targets — and 36.5 yards — on the year.

Last week, the second-year tight end caught both targets for 26 yards and a score. He now has 25-plus yards in four of his past five games, with three TDs in that span.

Miami has allowed the third-fewest yards to WRs this year, so Kraft could pose some matchup advantages for Green Bay.

Smith over 39.5 receiving yards (-175): Kraft isn’t the only tight end worth targeting on Thanksgiving night.

It’s not often you see a journeyman tight end break out in his age-29 season, but that’s exactly what’s happening with Smith. He’s enjoying career-high marks in …

• Yards/game (48.6)
• Catches/game (4.4)
• First downs (33)
• Target share (18.5%)

Smith has a higher target share than Jaylen Waddle. If that was on your 2024 NFL bingo card, hats off to you.

It’s been well-earned, though, as Smith has turned his outsized opportunity into results. He has 40-plus receiving yards in six of his past seven games, clearing the 60-yard mark four times in that span.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. on 11/27/24.