Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving tripleheader concludes at Lambeau Field with a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins.
The pregame narrative: Green Bay is 6-1 in its past seven games, and I like the home team to win a chilly prime-time showdown. In the prop market, Josh Jacobs is a logical anytime TD play, while both tight ends (Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith) should make their mark.
Check out my Dolphins vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions for a special Thanksgiving edition of Thursday Night Football in Week 13.
Dolphins vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Packers moneyline + Jacobs anytime TD + Kraft over 24.5 receiving yards + Smith over 39.5 receiving yards (+500)
Packers moneyline (-177): After several nail-biting wins — including one in Chicago that should’ve been a loss — the Packers needed a statement victory. They got one last week, treating a home crowd to a 38-10 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners were beaten up and haven’t risen to expectations this year, but it was still a commendable week for the Packers. Green Bay dominated the clock and ran the ball at will.
Up next is a Miami squad that has won three games in a row, though each of those games was against a sub-.500 opponent.
The Dolphins are 0-4 against winning teams this season. And of course, Tua Tagovailoa is carrying a cold weather stigma into the Frozen Tundra.
According to Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games that fall below 40 degrees Fahrenheit. It’ll be below-freezing — and potentially snowy — in Green Bay on Thursday.
Other parlay picks
Jacobs anytime TD (-182): I called for a Jacobs touchdown last week in light of Green Bay’s red zone woes. He responded with three.
The Packers entered Week 12 with a disastrous 48.7% TD rate on red zone drives, and my thought was that they weren’t relying on Jacobs enough in the most important part of the field.
Well, that changed last Sunday. Jacobs saw a season-high seven carries in the red zone, per Rotowire — including five inside the five-yard line.
Jacobs has six TDs over his past four games, with 11 carries inside the 10-yard line in that span. Keep feeding one of the NFL’s most productive running backs and good things should happen.
Kraft over 24.5 receiving yards (-195): Romeo Doubs, the Packers’ top receiving target, missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday because of a concussion and seems unlikely to play. That’ll open up more opportunities for other pass-catchers, and Kraft has my eye.
Kraft only has three targets over his past two games, but he’s still averaging 3.8 targets — and 36.5 yards — on the year.
Last week, the second-year tight end caught both targets for 26 yards and a score. He now has 25-plus yards in four of his past five games, with three TDs in that span.
Miami has allowed the third-fewest yards to WRs this year, so Kraft could pose some matchup advantages for Green Bay.
Smith over 39.5 receiving yards (-175): Kraft isn’t the only tight end worth targeting on Thanksgiving night.
It’s not often you see a journeyman tight end break out in his age-29 season, but that’s exactly what’s happening with Smith. He’s enjoying career-high marks in …
- Yards/game (48.6)
- Catches/game (4.4)
- First downs (33)
- Target share (18.5%)
Smith has a higher target share than Jaylen Waddle. If that was on your 2024 NFL bingo card, hats off to you.
It’s been well-earned, though, as Smith has turned his outsized opportunity into results. He has 40-plus receiving yards in six of his past seven games, clearing the 60-yard mark four times in that span.
Picks made at 12:40 p.m. on 11/27/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.