The final full week of the college football season is upon us, and I’m particularly tuned into the action in the Big 12 conference.
The pregame narrative: The Kansas Jayhawks and Baylor Bears aren’t playing an extremely meaningful game, but it should be an exciting one for folks who love offence. I like the over in that matchup, the over for Tetairoa McMillan’s receiving yards prop, and a cover for the No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Check out the best college football Week 14 picks for the action on Saturday, Nov. 30.
College football Week 14 picks
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Best Bet: Kansas/Baylor over 61.5 points (-108)
Before last week’s 20-10 snoozer against Houston, Baylor had ripped off seven straight overs. The average point total in those games was 72.6 points.
The Bears know how to score a mountain of points, and they’re up against a Jayhawks squad that can run with them.
Fifth-year quarterback Jalon Daniels leads the Big 12 in yards per completion (13.7), while running back Devin Neal has scored 11 touchdowns in his past five games.
Both teams are averaging 30-plus points per game, which means even a lofty total like this one should be well within reach.
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Kansas and Baylor’s pass offences are both in a nice position to continue rolling against some suspect defences.
- Kansas ranks 17th in EPA per pass on offence and 91st on defence, according to gameonpaper.com
- Baylor’s offence ranks 26th in EPA per pass, and its defence ranks 97th.
The Bears have an outside shot at the Big 12 title game, while the Jayhawks need to win for bowl eligibility. In a meaningful game, both sides should empty the playbook and let their offences run wild.
Key stat: Baylor has scored and/or allowed 31-plus points in eight of its past nine games.
Quick picks
Notre Dame -7 (-118): The Fighting Irish have faced a cupcake schedule, and they have the worst loss of any of the College Football Playoff contenders. But since that Sept. 7 defeat against Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has steamrolled everybody in its path.
The Irish have won nine straight games by a touchdown or more. Their average victory margin in those matchups is a whopping 32.6 points.
Did Notre Dame beat anyone good in that stretch? That depends on your opinion of Army (9-1), Navy (7-3), and Louisville (7-4).
The USC Trojans (6-5) are another mediocre-at-best bunch on the Irish’s schedule, and I expect another comfortable win for ND.
Notre Dame is No. 2 in the country in net EPA per play and is rocking a 9-2 ATS record.
McMillan over 79.5 receiving yards (-117): The Arizona Wildcats aren’t going bowling this year, which makes Saturday’s rivalry matchup against Arizona State a de facto bowl game.
It’ll also be the last time seeing Tetairoa McMillan at the college level, and I expect him to go out with a bang.
The Big 12’s leading receiver, who’s averaging 113.7 yards per game, toasted Arizona State on the road last season:
- 11 catches
- 266 yards
- 1 TD
McMillan has 11-plus targets in seven of 11 games, and he has cashed this bet in six of 11. Look for him to see excellent target volume again, which should lead to a solid day.
Picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 11/28/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.