Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Packers vs. Lions Week 14 TNF best bets and odds: Take Green Bay to cover, Gibbs to run wild

NFL Week 14 opens with a titanic Thursday Night Football clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: Detroit is the Super Bowl favourite, while Green Bay is in a stable wild-card position. I expect a close game, which is why I’m banking points with the Packers — but Jahmyr Gibbs is in my best bet spotlight.

Check out my Packers vs. Lions best bets for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 5.

Packers vs. Lions best bets

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Best Bet: Gibbs over 65.5 rushing yards (-120)

One of the frustrating things about betting on Gibbs is that his ceiling is lowered in Detroit’s platoon system.

The Lions have an enviable problem: Both Gibbs and running mate David Montgomery are productive backfield options that deserve a relatively equal piece of the offensive pie.

The good news is that Gibbs and Montgomery can co-exist in a way that allows Gibbs to go for 66-plus rushing yards. After all, he’s hit that mark in 9 of 12 games this season.

Green Bay’s defence is solid, but its run defence isn’t in elite company. The Packers’ defence ranks 13th in EPA per rush and 13th in rush success rate, according to RBSDM.com.

Gibbs, who’s averaging 81.1 rush yards/game this season, had nine carries for 87 yards last week. He’s among the league’s top RBs in some key categories:

2nd in yards/attempt (6.0)
4th in rushes of 20+ yards (8)
6th in rush yards over expectation/attempt (1.16)

The second-year tailback often does his best work at home, and I expect that to continue.

Key stat: Gibbs is averaging 7.0 yards per rush at home this season.

Quick pick

Packers +3.5 (-112): Green Bay lost by 10 at home against the Lions back in Week 9, but the game was closer than the final score indicated.

The Packers outgained the Lions by 150 yards and were ultimately undone by three Detroit plays:

4th-and-goal touchdown in the second quarter
A pick-six inside the final minute of the first half
4th-and-goal touchdown in the third quarter

If one of those three plays doesn’t go the Lions’ way, we’re looking at a Green Bay cover.

Green Bay dominated at home the past two weeks, but it’s a capable road squad, too. The Packers are 4-1 straight up as visitors this season.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET 12/03/2024.

Packers vs. Lions Week 14 TNF best bets and odds: Take Green Bay to cover, Gibbs to run wild

NFL Week 14 opens with a titanic Thursday Night Football clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: Detroit is the Super Bowl favourite, while Green Bay is in a stable wild-card position. I expect a close game, which is why I’m banking points with the Packers — but Jahmyr Gibbs is in my best bet spotlight.

Check out my Packers vs. Lions best bets for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 5.

Packers vs. Lions best bets

Go to full NFL betting markets

Embed: #102314

Best Bet: Gibbs over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)

One of the frustrating things about betting on Gibbs is that his ceiling is lowered in Detroit’s platoon system.

The Lions have an enviable problem: Both Gibbs and running mate David Montgomery are productive backfield options that deserve a relatively equal piece of the offensive pie.

The good news is that Gibbs and Montgomery can co-exist in a way that allows Gibbs to go for 65-plus rushing yards. After all, he’s hit that mark in 10 of 12 games this season.

One of those games was against the Packers, when Gibbs landed on exactly 65 rush yards in 11 carries.

Green Bay’s defence is solid, but its run defence isn’t in elite company. The Packers’ defence ranks 13th in EPA per rush and 13th in rush success rate, according to RBSDM.com.

Gibbs, who’s averaging 81.1 rush yards/game this season, had nine carries for 87 yards last week. He’s among the league’s top RBs in some key categories:

2nd in yards/attempt (6.0)
4th in rushes of 20+ yards (8)
6th in rush yards over expectation/attempt (1.16)

The second-year tailback often does his best work at home, and I expect that to continue.

Key stat: Gibbs is averaging 7.0 yards per rush at home this season.

Quick pick

Packers +3.5 (-114): Green Bay lost by 10 at home against the Lions back in Week 9, but the game was closer than the final score indicated.

The Packers outgained the Lions by 150 yards and were ultimately undone by three Detroit plays:

4th-and-goal touchdown in the second quarter
A pick-six inside the final minute of the first half
4th-and-goal touchdown in the third quarter

If one of those three plays doesn’t go the Lions’ way, we’re looking at a Green Bay cover.

Green Bay dominated at home the past two weeks, but it’s a capable road squad, too. The Packers are 4-1 straight up as visitors this season.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET 12/03/2024.

Pacers vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Dec. 3: Bet on Barnes, Siakam in +270 SGP

The Toronto Raptors wrap up their NBA Cup group play tonight at home against the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Tuesday’s matchup is just like any old regular season game, as neither Toronto nor Indiana can advance to the knockout stage. My +270 ticket features an alt spread in the Raptors’ favour, as well as props on Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes.

Check out my Pacers vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 3.

Pacers vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +6.5 + Siakam over 29.5 points/rebounds/assists + Barnes over 7.5 rebounds (+270)

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Raptors +6.5 (-215): Indiana is probably going to be a playoff team this year, but it needs to figure out how to play on the road.

The Pacers are 2-9 away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and their -9.5 road net rating is 27th among NBA teams.

Indiana is also on a six-game road ATS losing streak. That includes a 130-119 loss in Toronto on Nov. 18, when the Pacers were 3.5-point favourites.

So, yes, Toronto already has an outright win as an underdog over Indiana this year. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS against the Pacers since the start of last season and have covered this number in seven of their past nine.

SGP legs

Siakam over 29.5 PRA (-186): Though the Pacers struggled the last time they were inside Scotiabank Arena, Siakam (perhaps unsurprisingly) felt right at home.

The ex-Raptor put up 25 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in Toronto last month. He typically puts on a strong performance against his old squad.

In four matchups against Toronto, Siakam is averaging 22.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists (36.4 PRA). He’s cleared this total in three of those games.

Siakam’s usage isn’t as high as it was in his Raptors days, but he’s still averaging 32.2 PRA in 62 games with Indiana.

Barnes over 7.5 rebounds (-167): Based on his recent performance — and his track record against the Pacers — this is a very doable rebounding total for Barnes.

Barnes has 10+ rebounds in four straight games.

He’s averaging a career-high 8.7 rebounds per game this year (after 8.2 RPG last year).

Barnes has 8+ rebounds in 5/5 games vs. Indiana since 2022-23.

Last season, Barnes had exactly 12 rebounds in all three games against the Pacers, so betting his standard rebounding line (over 8.5 at +105) is compelling, too.

Indiana plays at the NBA’s sixth-fastest pace and has the 26th-ranked rebounding rate (48.2%). There should be rebounds aplenty for Barnes.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 12/03/24.

Steelers vs. Bengals Week 13 same-game parlay predictions: Ride with Chase Brown and an alt under

The Cincinnati Bengals are in must-win mode at home on Sunday with the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers in town.

The pregame narrative: My +460 SGP includes prop bets on Chase Brown and Jaylen Warren. Both backs have seen ample opportunities in recent weeks and are trending positively ahead of this Week 13 battle.

Check out my Steelers vs. Bengals same-game parlay predictions for Week 13 below.

Steelers vs. Bengals same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Under 54.5 points + Brown anytime TD + Warren over 57.5 rushing/receiving yards (+460)

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Under 54.5 points (-278): Based solely on how the Bengals are playing this year, this is a bit of a risky pick. But I expect a tighter game in this divisional clash.

Yes, the Bengals have gone over this total in three straight games, but now they have to deal with the stout Steelers defence.

Pittsburgh ranks No. 3 in scoring defence and No. 7 in total defence. The Steelers’ average game total this year is 39.8 points, and 10 of 11 games have gone under this number.

Two weeks ago, Pittsburgh held down the Baltimore Ravens’ No. 2 scoring offence in an 18-16 win.

Nine of the past 10 Steelers/Bengals games went under 54.5 points. This teased-up total should leave plenty of room for offence without things getting out of hand.

Other parlay picks

Brown anytime TD (-162): Pittsburgh is a tough team to run against, but Brown doesn’t need a boatload of yards to find the end zone. His red zone usage is what I’m keen on.

Ever since Zack Moss landed on the injured reserve, Brown has staked his claim on the most crucial part of the field.

In Cincy’s past three games, Brown has …

13 red zone carries
11 carries inside the 10-yard line
2 TDs

Brown has seen at least one carry inside the five-yard line in four straight games, per Rotowire. He’s also been targeted inside the 10-yard line as a receiver in three straight.

With seven TDs over his past eight games — and plenty of Grade A chances in recent weeks — Brown is a logical pick to score.

Warren over 57.5 rushing/receiving yards (-113): Warren is in a timeshare with Najee Harris, and I don’t expect that to change. But the undrafted back has enough usage for me to like him against this number.

Warren has seen 11+ touches six times this season, including five straight games.

Every time he’s had 11+ touches, Warren has finished over 57.5 scrimmage yards.

Cincinnati’s defence has been its undoing this season, allowing 355.5 yards per game (10th-most in the NFL).

Last year in the Queen City, Warren finished with 62 scrimmage yards on 16 touches.

On Sunday, I expect him to go over 57.5 scrimmage yards for a sixth consecutive game.

Picks made at 2:55 p.m. on 11/30/24.

Warriors vs. Suns prop picks Nov. 30: Bet on Green, Durant to go over their assist props

For tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, I’m hoping a couple of players are feeling generous.

The pregame narrative: My two best bets for Saturday are assist props for Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Durant is only a few games removed from injury but has fared well against a modest assist line all season.

Check out my Warriors vs. Suns prop picks for Nov. 30.

Warriors vs. Suns prop picks

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Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 assists (-143)

Durant doesn’t get a ton of assists, but he does tend to at least flirt with this number on a nightly basis.

On the season, Durant is averaging 3.2 assists.

After recording zero assists in the Suns’ season opener, Durant has 2+ assists in 10 straight games.

Prior to his injury, Durant had 3+ assists in 5/8 games

A calf strain caused Durant to miss about two weeks of action in November, and he still hasn’t gotten back to a full workload since returning. But perhaps that changes tonight.

Pre-injury, Durant averaged 38.8 minutes. He’s played 30 and 33 minutes, respectively, in two games since returning to the court.

Given how often Durant is within range of this assist total, a handful of extra minutes might make the difference.

And for how low the assist number is that I’m asking for, Durant does his part as a passer. He averages 6.3 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com’s player tracking, which means 6.3 passes that immediately turn into an assist-eligible shot.

Key stat: Durant had 12 assists in three games against the Warriors last season and cashed this prop twice.

Quick pick

Green over 6.5 assists (+100): Based on how Green has played recently, this price looks like a value.

Here’s how things have gone for Green over his past nine games:

7.4 assists per game
12.2 potential assists per game
7+ assists in 7/9 games

From the power forward position, Green is consistently at the centre of the Warriors’ offensive action.

Phoenix is allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing PFs, according to Betting Pros.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET 11/30/2024.

Mavericks vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions Nov. 30: With Doncic doubtful, look for Sexton and Marshall to shine

Tonight’s five-pack of NBA matchups concludes with the Utah Jazz hosting the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is doubtful for tonight, but I still like the Mavericks to cover an alternate spread. This +280 SGP also includes props for Naji Marshall and Collin Sexton.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 30.

Mavericks vs. Jazz predictions

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Parlay: Mavericks -2.5 + Marshall over 14.5 points + Sexton over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (+280)

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Mavericks -2.5 (-235): Dallas lost as an 8-point road favourite when it last faced Utah, but I expect those fortunes to turn tonight.

Since that loss, the Mavericks are 6-1 straight up and ATS. The crazy part is that they’ve played most of those games without Doncic, who is doubtful tonight.

In the past two weeks, the Luka-less Mavericks have won as underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks.

With that in mind, a revenge spot against the woeful Jazz should lead to another victory.

Since its narrow win over Dallas, Utah is 1-6 and each of those losses came by at least four points.

SGP legs

Marshall over 14.5 points (-180): Marshall isn’t a household name, but he’s doing plenty to earn the praise of Mavs fans.

The fifth-year forward has started back-to-back games with Klay Thompson out and will likely slot into the starting lineup again tonight.

Marshall has 15+ points in 7/12 games since Nov. 4.

He’s cashed this bet in five straight games, with 20+ points in each of his past four.

You need to be on the court to score, and Marshall has earned his spot as Dallas deals with some key injuries.

The Jazz have the lowest defensive rating in the league, and Marshall scored 19 points against them on 9-of-14 shooting earlier this month.

Sexton over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (-205): Overs are 5-0-1 in Dallas’ past six games, so I could see the Jazz putting up some points tonight and making this a bit of a track meet.

With that in mind, the streaking Sexton looks like a viable candidate to have a strong performance. He’s coming off three straight games with 20-plus points, which would already put us in a great spot to cash.

Sexton has cleared this PRA line in nine of his past 12 games, averaging 25.2 PRA in that span.

In two prior matchups against Dallas this season, Sexton finished with 29 and 24 PRA, respectively.

NBA picks made at 12:48 p.m. on 11/30/24.

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Warriors vs. Suns prop picks Nov. 30: Bet on Green, Durant to go over their assist props

For tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, I’m hoping a couple of players are feeling generous.

The pregame narrative: My two best bets for Saturday are assist props for Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Durant is only a few games removed from injury but has fared well against a modest assist line all season.

Check out my Warriors vs. Suns prop picks for Nov. 30.

Warriors vs. Suns prop picks

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Embed: #102069

Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 assists (-130)

Durant doesn’t get a ton of assists, but he does tend to at least flirt with this number on a nightly basis.

On the season, Durant is averaging 3.2 assists.

After recording zero assists in the Suns’ season opener, Durant has 2+ assists in 10 straight games.

Prior to his injury, Durant had 3+ assists in 5/8 games

A calf strain caused Durant to miss about two weeks of action in November, and he still hasn’t gotten back to a full workload since returning. But perhaps that changes tonight.

Pre-injury, Durant averaged 38.8 minutes. He’s played 30 and 33 minutes, respectively, in two games since returning to the court.

Given how often Durant is within range of this assist total, a handful of extra minutes might make the difference.

And for how low the assist number is that I’m asking for, Durant does his part as a passer. He averages 6.3 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com’s player tracking, which means 6.3 passes that immediately turn into an assist-eligible shot.

Key stat: Durant had 12 assists in three games against the Warriors last season and cashed this prop twice.

Quick pick

Green over 6.5 assists (+100): Based on how Green has played recently, this price looks like a value.

Here’s how things have gone for Green over his past nine games:

7.4 assists per game
12.2 potential assists per game
7+ assists in 7/9 games

From the power forward position, Green is consistently at the centre of the Warriors’ offensive action.

Phoenix is allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing PFs, according to Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 11/30/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 30: Back Giannis, McCain and Marshall as scorers

I’ve got three scoring props for Saturday’s NBA action, headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The pregame narrative: Giannis has had a week off and now faces a struggling defence at home. That sounds like a smash play to me. Elsewhere, look for Jared McCain and Naji Marshall to fill the net for their respective squads.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 30.

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Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 31.5 points (-120)

I’m starting to wonder if the whispers of a Giannis MVP campaign are too quiet.

As of Saturday morning, Giannis was listed with +800 MVP odds, which is fourth among the league’s cream-of-the-crop hoopers.

If he continues to hold the NBA scoring lead, I’d expect those odds to start shortening.

Giannis is averaging 32.4 points per game, which is both the league-high mark and a career best for the 12th-year big man. It’s also his third season averaging 30-plus points, though, so the scoring isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Load management is in vogue for several of today’s star players, but Giannis isn’t among them. But he should be well-rested for tonight’s game, which only makes me more interested in backing him.

Giannis hasn’t played since last Saturday, when he dropped 32 points in 31 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played once since then (Tuesday at Miami), but Giannis sat out with a left knee injury.

He’s listed as “probable” on Saturday’s NBA injury report with right patella tendinopathy, which suggests the left knee ailment is behind him.

Giannis has gone over 31.5 points in three straight games, as well as seven of his past 12. And tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards is a really good one.

Washington has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA. Also, according to Cleaning The Glass, the Wizards allow the second-highest shooting percentage around the rim (70.5%).

Key stat: Giannis cashed this bet in two of three matchups against the Wizards last year.

Quick picks

Marshall over 16.5 points (-125): I’ll be honest, I didn’t know who Marshall was when this season began. But the undrafted small forward in his fifth NBA season is making the most of an outsized opportunity.

Luka Doncic is doubtful to play for the Dallas Mavericks tonight, while Klay Thompson is slated to miss his third straight game. With some stars on the shelf, Marshall has shown up in a big way.

20+ points in four straight games
Over 16.5 points in 7/13 games since Nov. 4

After a handful of low-involvement performances to start the year, Marshall popped for the first time on Nov. 4 with an extended run against the Pacers. He had 20 points in 34 minutes that night.

From that point on, Marshall has some nice shooting splits — 60.0/35.9/86.7 — on 10.8 shots per game.

The Mavericks are on the road tonight against the Utah Jazz, who have the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

McCain over 20.5 points (-125): Once the Philadelphia 76ers started giving McCain more minutes, the positive returns came in a blink.

Over his first seven NBA games, the 16th overall pick averaged 6.7 PPG in roughly 11 minutes of action.

Since then, he’s averaging 23.4 PPG in about 35 minutes per night.

McCain has cashed this bet in five of his past nine games, landing on exactly 20 points two other times.

The difference has been McCain’s 3-point shooting, as the Duke product has really started to let it fly from deep.

He’s shooting 38.9% from 3-point range over his past 10 games on 9.5 attempts. That really raises his floor as a scorer.

Picks made at 10:18 a.m. ET on 11/30/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 30: Back Giannis, McCain and Marshall as scorers

I’ve got three scoring props for Saturday’s NBA action, headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The pregame narrative: Giannis has had a week off and now faces a struggling defence at home. That sounds like a smash play to me. Elsewhere, look for Jared McCain and Naji Marshall to fill the net for their respective squads.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 30.

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Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points (-130)

Embed: #102056

I’m starting to wonder if the whispers of a Giannis MVP campaign are too quiet.

As of Saturday morning, Giannis was listed with +800 MVP odds, which is fourth among the league’s cream-of-the-crop hoopers.

If he continues to hold the NBA scoring lead, I’d expect those odds to start shortening.

Giannis is averaging 32.4 points per game, which is both the league-high mark and a career best for the 12th-year big man. It’s also his third season averaging 30-plus points, though, so the scoring isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Load management is in vogue for several of today’s star players, but Giannis isn’t among them. But he should be well-rested for tonight’s game, which only makes me more interested in backing him.

Giannis hasn’t played since last Saturday, when he dropped 32 points in 31 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played once since then (Tuesday at Miami), but Giannis sat out with a left knee injury.

He’s listed as “probable” on Saturday’s NBA injury report with right patella tendinopathy, which suggests the left knee ailment is behind him.

Giannis has gone over 30.5 points in three straight games, as well as eight of his past 12. And tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards is a really good one.

Washington has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA. Also, according to Cleaning The Glass, the Wizards allow the second-highest shooting percentage around the rim (70.5%).

Key stat: Giannis cashed this bet in all three matchups against the Wizards last year.

Quick picks

Marshall over 16.5 points (-109): I’ll be honest, I didn’t know who Marshall was when this season began. But the undrafted small forward in his fifth NBA season is making the most of an outsized opportunity.

Luka Doncic is doubtful to play for the Dallas Mavericks tonight, while Klay Thompson is slated to miss his third straight game. With some stars on the shelf, Marshall has shown up in a big way.

20+ points in four straight games
Over 16.5 points in 7/13 games since Nov. 4

After a handful of low-involvement performances to start the year, Marshall popped for the first time on Nov. 4 with an extended run against the Pacers. He had 20 points in 34 minutes that night.

From that point on, Marshall has some nice shooting splits — 60.0/35.9/86.7 — on 10.8 shots per game.

The Mavericks are on the road tonight against the Utah Jazz, who have the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

McCain over 20.5 points (-115): Once the Philadelphia 76ers started giving McCain more minutes, the positive returns came in a blink.

Over his first seven NBA games, the 16th overall pick averaged 6.7 PPG in roughly 11 minutes of action.

Since then, he’s averaging 23.4 PPG in about 35 minutes per night.

McCain has cashed this bet in five of his past nine games, landing on exactly 20 points two other times.

The difference has been McCain’s 3-point shooting, as the Duke product has really started to let it fly from deep.

He’s shooting 38.9% from 3-point range over his past 10 games on 9.5 attempts. That really raises his floor as a scorer.

Picks made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 11/30/2024.

College football Week 14 prop picks: NCAAF predictions on Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, Oregon’s Jordan James

A trio of players on top 20 College Football Playoff squads made the cut for my Week 14 prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Jordan James (Oregon) are two stars I think will do some damage in the running game. Earlier on Saturday, look for Tyler Warren (Penn State) to add to a banner season.

Check out the best college football prop picks for Week 14 action on Nov. 30.

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Embed: #102039

Best Bet: Reed over 34.5 rushing yards (-115)

Rarely does a midseason quarterback change work out as well as it as for Reed and the No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies.

Reed, who began the year holding a clipboard for third-year QB Conner Weigman, saved the day in the second half against LSU and never looked back.

In that Oct. 26 matchup, Reed took over for a struggling Weigman and rushed for 62 yards and three TDs on nine carries. He also completed both of his pass attempts for 70 yards.

The rushing work is what I’m focused on for Reed. As he’s taken on starting QB duties for three games this month, he hasn’t stopped doing damage with his legs.

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Here’s what Reed’s rushing volume has looked like over the past three games:

16 carries, 46 yards (Nov. 2)
4 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD (Nov. 16)
21 carries, 66 yards (Nov. 23)

The overall volume is great, and it’s unsurprising given that Texas A&M is a run-first team. The Aggies run on 59.6% of their plays, which ranks 21st in the country.

And with lead tailback Le’Veon Moss still sidelined with a leg injury, Reed is a perfect guy to pick up the slack.

The No. 3 Texas Longhorns aren’t a fun team to try running against, but they’re even more stout against the pass. Texas’ defence ranks No. 2 in the nation in EPA per pass and No. 18 in EPA per rush, per gameonpaper.com.

This isn’t too tall of an ask for a capable runner who should see his fair share of carries.

Key stat: Reed has 40-plus rushing yards in seven of eight games this year in which he played for more than two offensive possessions.

Quick picks

James over 94.5 rushing yards (-113): The No. 1 Oregon Ducks should be able to get their top running back going in Saturday’s rivalry game.

James, who’s averaging 97.0 rush yards per game, faces a Washington Huskies that seems far better equipped to defend the pass than the run.

Washington’s defence ranks 94th in EPA per rush and fifth in EPA per pass.

The Huskies allow 152.0 rush yards/game (69th in NCAA).

As Oregon’s backup last year, James had 35 rush yards against Washington on five efficient carries. He’s the lead dog this year and is averaging 17.4 carries per game.

Having cashed this bet in seven of 11 games, I like James’ chances of running up a big yardage total again.

Warren over 79.5 receiving yards (-125): Saturday marks Warren’s last opportunity to boost his resume for the Mackey Award, which is given to the country’s top tight end.

He already has a strong case, with 75 receptions and 910 yards through 11 games. But he should be able to add to those numbers against the Maryland Terrapins’ feeble pass defence.

Maryland is 99th in yards per pass attempt (7.9) and 106th in pass yards per game (254.7).

Warren is coming off three straight games with eight catches, as well as back-to-back games with 100-plus receiving yards.

If someone is going to feast for the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions, I expect it’ll be him.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 11/29/2024.