A trio of players on top 20 College Football Playoff squads made the cut for my Week 14 prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Jordan James (Oregon) are two stars I think will do some damage in the running game. Earlier on Saturday, look for Tyler Warren (Penn State) to add to a banner season.
Check out the best college football prop picks for Week 14 action on Nov. 30.
College football prop picks
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Best Bet: Reed over 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
Rarely does a midseason quarterback change work out as well as it as for Reed and the No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies.
Reed, who began the year holding a clipboard for third-year QB Conner Weigman, saved the day in the second half against LSU and never looked back.
In that Oct. 26 matchup, Reed took over for a struggling Weigman and rushed for 62 yards and three TDs on nine carries. He also completed both of his pass attempts for 70 yards.
The rushing work is what I’m focused on for Reed. As he’s taken on starting QB duties for three games this month, he hasn’t stopped doing damage with his legs.
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Here’s what Reed’s rushing volume has looked like over the past three games:
- 16 carries, 46 yards (Nov. 2)
- 4 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD (Nov. 16)
- 21 carries, 66 yards (Nov. 23)
The overall volume is great, and it’s unsurprising given that Texas A&M is a run-first team. The Aggies run on 59.6% of their plays, which ranks 21st in the country.
And with lead tailback Le’Veon Moss still sidelined with a leg injury, Reed is a perfect guy to pick up the slack.
The No. 3 Texas Longhorns aren’t a fun team to try running against, but they’re even more stout against the pass. Texas’ defence ranks No. 2 in the nation in EPA per pass and No. 18 in EPA per rush, per gameonpaper.com.
This isn’t too tall of an ask for a capable runner who should see his fair share of carries.
Key stat: Reed has 40-plus rushing yards in seven of eight games this year in which he played for more than two offensive possessions.
Quick picks
James over 94.5 rushing yards (-113): The No. 1 Oregon Ducks should be able to get their top running back going in Saturday’s rivalry game.
James, who’s averaging 97.0 rush yards per game, faces a Washington Huskies that seems far better equipped to defend the pass than the run.
- Washington’s defence ranks 94th in EPA per rush and fifth in EPA per pass.
- The Huskies allow 152.0 rush yards/game (69th in NCAA).
As Oregon’s backup last year, James had 35 rush yards against Washington on five efficient carries. He’s the lead dog this year and is averaging 17.4 carries per game.
Having cashed this bet in seven of 11 games, I like James’ chances of running up a big yardage total again.
Warren over 79.5 receiving yards (-125): Saturday marks Warren’s last opportunity to boost his resume for the Mackey Award, which is given to the country’s top tight end.
He already has a strong case, with 75 receptions and 910 yards through 11 games. But he should be able to add to those numbers against the Maryland Terrapins’ feeble pass defence.
Maryland is 99th in yards per pass attempt (7.9) and 106th in pass yards per game (254.7).
Warren is coming off three straight games with eight catches, as well as back-to-back games with 100-plus receiving yards.
If someone is going to feast for the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions, I expect it’ll be him.
Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 11/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.