NFL Week 14 opens with a titanic Thursday Night Football clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: Detroit is the Super Bowl favourite, while Green Bay is in a stable wild-card position. I expect a close game, which is why I’m banking points with the Packers — but Jahmyr Gibbs is in my best bet spotlight.
Check out my Packers vs. Lions best bets for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 5.
Packers vs. Lions best bets
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Best Bet: Gibbs over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)
One of the frustrating things about betting on Gibbs is that his ceiling is lowered in Detroit’s platoon system.
The Lions have an enviable problem: Both Gibbs and running mate David Montgomery are productive backfield options that deserve a relatively equal piece of the offensive pie.
The good news is that Gibbs and Montgomery can co-exist in a way that allows Gibbs to go for 65-plus rushing yards. After all, he’s hit that mark in 10 of 12 games this season.
One of those games was against the Packers, when Gibbs landed on exactly 65 rush yards in 11 carries.
Green Bay’s defence is solid, but its run defence isn’t in elite company. The Packers’ defence ranks 13th in EPA per rush and 13th in rush success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
Gibbs, who’s averaging 81.1 rush yards/game this season, had nine carries for 87 yards last week. He’s among the league’s top RBs in some key categories:
- 2nd in yards/attempt (6.0)
- 4th in rushes of 20+ yards (8)
- 6th in rush yards over expectation/attempt (1.16)
The second-year tailback often does his best work at home, and I expect that to continue.
Key stat: Gibbs is averaging 7.0 yards per rush at home this season.
Quick pick
Packers +3.5 (-114): Green Bay lost by 10 at home against the Lions back in Week 9, but the game was closer than the final score indicated.
The Packers outgained the Lions by 150 yards and were ultimately undone by three Detroit plays:
- 4th-and-goal touchdown in the second quarter
- A pick-six inside the final minute of the first half
- 4th-and-goal touchdown in the third quarter
If one of those three plays doesn’t go the Lions’ way, we’re looking at a Green Bay cover.
Green Bay dominated at home the past two weeks, but it’s a capable road squad, too. The Packers are 4-1 straight up as visitors this season.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET 12/03/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.