The Cincinnati Bengals are in must-win mode at home on Sunday with the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers in town.
The pregame narrative: My +460 SGP includes prop bets on Chase Brown and Jaylen Warren. Both backs have seen ample opportunities in recent weeks and are trending positively ahead of this Week 13 battle.
Check out my Steelers vs. Bengals same-game parlay predictions for Week 13 below.
Steelers vs. Bengals same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Under 54.5 points + Brown anytime TD + Warren over 57.5 rushing/receiving yards (+460)
Under 54.5 points (-278): Based solely on how the Bengals are playing this year, this is a bit of a risky pick. But I expect a tighter game in this divisional clash.
Yes, the Bengals have gone over this total in three straight games, but now they have to deal with the stout Steelers defence.
Pittsburgh ranks No. 3 in scoring defence and No. 7 in total defence. The Steelers’ average game total this year is 39.8 points, and 10 of 11 games have gone under this number.
Two weeks ago, Pittsburgh held down the Baltimore Ravens’ No. 2 scoring offence in an 18-16 win.
Nine of the past 10 Steelers/Bengals games went under 54.5 points. This teased-up total should leave plenty of room for offence without things getting out of hand.
Other parlay picks
Brown anytime TD (-162): Pittsburgh is a tough team to run against, but Brown doesn’t need a boatload of yards to find the end zone. His red zone usage is what I’m keen on.
Ever since Zack Moss landed on the injured reserve, Brown has staked his claim on the most crucial part of the field.
In Cincy’s past three games, Brown has …
- 13 red zone carries
- 11 carries inside the 10-yard line
- 2 TDs
Brown has seen at least one carry inside the five-yard line in four straight games, per Rotowire. He’s also been targeted inside the 10-yard line as a receiver in three straight.
With seven TDs over his past eight games — and plenty of Grade A chances in recent weeks — Brown is a logical pick to score.
Warren over 57.5 rushing/receiving yards (-113): Warren is in a timeshare with Najee Harris, and I don’t expect that to change. But the undrafted back has enough usage for me to like him against this number.
- Warren has seen 11+ touches six times this season, including five straight games.
- Every time he’s had 11+ touches, Warren has finished over 57.5 scrimmage yards.
Cincinnati’s defence has been its undoing this season, allowing 355.5 yards per game (10th-most in the NFL).
Last year in the Queen City, Warren finished with 62 scrimmage yards on 16 touches.
On Sunday, I expect him to go over 57.5 scrimmage yards for a sixth consecutive game.
Picks made at 2:55 p.m. on 11/30/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.