For tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, I’m hoping a couple of players are feeling generous.
The pregame narrative: My two best bets for Saturday are assist props for Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Durant is only a few games removed from injury but has fared well against a modest assist line all season.
Check out my Warriors vs. Suns prop picks for Nov. 30.
Warriors vs. Suns prop picks
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Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 assists (-130)
Durant doesn’t get a ton of assists, but he does tend to at least flirt with this number on a nightly basis.
- On the season, Durant is averaging 3.2 assists.
- After recording zero assists in the Suns’ season opener, Durant has 2+ assists in 10 straight games.
- Prior to his injury, Durant had 3+ assists in 5/8 games
A calf strain caused Durant to miss about two weeks of action in November, and he still hasn’t gotten back to a full workload since returning. But perhaps that changes tonight.
Pre-injury, Durant averaged 38.8 minutes. He’s played 30 and 33 minutes, respectively, in two games since returning to the court.
Given how often Durant is within range of this assist total, a handful of extra minutes might make the difference.
And for how low the assist number is that I’m asking for, Durant does his part as a passer. He averages 6.3 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com’s player tracking, which means 6.3 passes that immediately turn into an assist-eligible shot.
Key stat: Durant had 12 assists in three games against the Warriors last season and cashed this prop twice.
Quick pick
Green over 6.5 assists (+100): Based on how Green has played recently, this price looks like a value.
Here’s how things have gone for Green over his past nine games:
- 7.4 assists per game
- 12.2 potential assists per game
- 7+ assists in 7/9 games
From the power forward position, Green is consistently at the centre of the Warriors’ offensive action.
Phoenix is allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing PFs, according to Betting Pros.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 11/30/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.