The top teams in a loaded Western Conference meet in the Bay Area tonight as the Golden State Warriors host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The pregame narrative: Golden State and OKC tend to play high-scoring games, so I’ve added an alt over to my +460 SGP. I’m also taking the over on various prop bets involving Steph Curry, Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Check out my Thunder vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 27.
Thunder vs. Warriors predictions
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Parlay: Over 224.5 points + Williams over 21.5 points + Hartenstein over 9.5 rebounds + Curry over 3.5 threes (+460)
Over 224.5 points (-186): Since January 2023, the Thunder and Warriors have cashed the over in nine straight games. Their lowest total in that span was 237 points.
If you’re just looking for a straight wager on this game, taking the over at 229.5 points might be the move. I’ve teased it down a bit for extra cushion, but that probably won’t be necessary.
Golden State ranks seventh in offensive efficiency and fifth in pace. OKC is 10th in offensive efficiency and eighth in pace.
In other words, they both play fast and know how to get buckets.
On Nov. 10, the Warriors and Thunder breezed past a 228.5-point projected total in Golden State’s 127-116 win.
SGP legs
Williams over 21.5 points (-205): Williams finished with 20 points when he saw the Warriors two-and-a-half weeks ago, but that was a game in which he only attempted a pair of 3s.
- Since then, Williams has shot 40.5% from 3-point range on 6.0 attempts per game.
- He’s averaging 26.4 PPG over his past seven games, scoring 25+ points six times in that span.
Williams has always been a stellar 3-point shooter, scoring at a 39.4% clip from deep in his career. If he can stay around 5.0 attempted 3s per night, it’ll really boost his ceiling as a scorer.
Add that to the fact that he’s attempting a career-high 16.9 FGA and shooting 83.7% from the free-throw line, and it’s easy to see how J-Dub can continue to produce.
Hartenstein over 9.5 rebounds (-124): I like this as a straight wager based on Hartenstein’s matchup and opportunity.
Golden State is allowing the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.1), per Betting Pros. Five opposing players have cashed this total in the Warriors’ past five games.
Hartenstein missed OKC’s first 15 games with a fractured hand. He returned a week ago and snatched 14 rebounds in just 29 minutes against the Trail Blazers.
On Monday, Hartenstein’s workload ticked up (32 minutes) and he grabbed 10 rebounds against the Kings.
I could see another slight increase in Hartenstein’s minutes, but even if he stays around the 30-minute mark, he should take advantage of this matchup.
Curry over 3.5 threes (-240): This is the most juiced leg on the ticket, but it correlates positively with the alt over and lifts the SGP price from +320 to +460.
Oh, and Curry has crushed this line in recent matchups against the Thunder:
- 4+ threes in 10/10 games vs. OKC since 2021-22
- Averaging 6.1 threes on 12.3 attempts (49.6%) in those games
- Is collectively 23-for-46 from deep vs. OKC since 2023-24
Curry has cleared this line in 10/14 games this season on 44.4% shooting from 3-point range. He’s remarkably reliable at this number.
Picks made at 10:40 a.m. on 11/27/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.