Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Top NFL Week 18 TD picks: Bet on Daniels and Thielen to score

I’ve got a quarterback and a receiver featured in my NFL Week 18 TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Jayden Daniels should have plenty of chances to score in a plus matchup. At the same time, Adam Thielen is a worthwhile play based on his recent production.

Check out the best NFL Week 18 TD picks for Sunday’s football games.

NFL Week 18 TD picks

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Best bet: Daniels anytime TD (+110): Daniels ran all over the Dallas Cowboys earlier this season, and he’s far from the only player to do that.

In Week 12, Daniels rushed seven times for 74 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Dallas has given up a league-high 24 rushing TDs.

Daniels hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in three straight games, but his overall output in that span (274 rush yards on 36 attempts) is superb.

Key stat: Daniels has three-plus red zone carries in three of his past four games.

Quick picks

Thielen anytime TD (+175): Thielen is finishing his age-34 season strong, and he’s clearly the most reliable red zone target for the Carolina Panthers right now.

The 11-year vet has put on a clinic over his past five games:

4 TDs
1+ red zone targets in 4/5 games
6+ targets in 5/5 games
5+ catches in 5/5 games

Xavier Legette has only been targeted in the red zone in one of Carolina’s past five games, and tailback Raheem Blackshear was abysmal last week in his first start (eight rushes, 20 yards).

If the Panthers get into the prime scoring area, expect Thielen to be Bryce Young’s primary option.

Picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 01/03/2025.

Top NFL Week 18 TD picks: Bet on Guerendo to score vs. Cardinals

I’ve got one running back, one quarterback and one receiver featured in my NFL Week 18 TD picks.

The pregame narrative: In the 4 p.m. slate, Isaac Guerendo should have plenty of opportunities to score in a plus matchup. Earlier on, both Jayden Daniels and Adam Thielen are worthwhile plays based on recent production.

Check out the best NFL Week 18 TD picks for Sunday’s football games.

NFL Week 18 TD picks

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Best bet: Guerendo anytime TD (+125)

You may not have known who Guerendo was when the NFL season began … but here he is as the last man standing in the San Francisco 49ers’ running back room.

With Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell on injured reserve, Guerendo has risen to the top of the depth chart.

Over the past four weeks, Guerendo’s numbers are solid:

3 TDs
6 red zone carries
79.5 scrimmage yards/game

On the season, Guerendo ranks in the 99th percentile in average yards after contact (4.0), per Rotowire. And now he draws a juicy matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

According to rbsdm.com, Arizona’s defence ranks 25th in EPA per rush and rush success rate. Back in October, San Francisco rushed for 153 yards against the Cardinals at 5.9 yards per carry.

Mason did most of the damage, but now it’s Guerendo’s show.

Keep in mind that this is a meaningless game for both sides. The 49ers should lean on their rookie, especially with QB Brock Purdy out and other key contributors dealing with injuries (George Kittle, Deebo Samuel).

Key stat: Guerendo has five carries inside the 10-yard line over the past three weeks.

Quick picks

Daniels anytime TD (+138): Daniels ran all over the Dallas Cowboys earlier this season, and he’s far from the only player to do that.

In Week 12, Daniels rushed seven times for 74 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Dallas has given up a league-high 24 rushing TDs.

Daniels hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in three straight games, but his overall output in that span (274 rush yards on 36 attempts) is superb.

Also, he has three-plus red zone carries in three of his past four games.

Thielen anytime TD (+175): Thielen is finishing his age-34 season strong, and he’s clearly the most reliable red zone target for the Carolina Panthers right now.

The 11-year vet has put on a clinic over his past five games:

4 TDs
1+ red zone targets in 4/5 games
6+ targets in 5/5 games
5+ catches in 5/5 games

Xavier Legette has only been targeted in the red zone in one of Carolina’s past five games, and tailback Raheem Blackshear was abysmal last week in his first start (eight rushes, 20 yards).

If the Panthers get into the prime scoring area, expect Thielen to be Bryce Young’s primary option.

Picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 01/03/2025.

Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks Jan. 3: Bet on Malik Monk to shine in increased role

The Sacramento Kings host the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA’s late-night Friday slate.

The pregame narrative: Malik Monk has taken an increased role for the Kings and run with it, which is why I like him tonight in a game with major scoring upside. For the Grizzlies, look to Jaren Jackson Jr. on a plus-money prop.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks for Jan. 3.

Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks

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Best Bet: Monk over 18.5 points (-115)

Monk has long been one of the league’s top players off the bench, and he was the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up a season ago. But right now, he’s running with the ones — and thriving.

Since Nov. 27, Monk has played 30-plus minutes (i.e., starter’s minutes) in 16 straight games. Here’s how he’s fared:

18.1 PPG
19+ points in 8/16 games
14.7 FGA (8.1 3PA)

Prior to this stretch of extended work, Monk averaged 12.7 PPG on 10.5 shots (4.5 threes).

Though his scoring average with starter’s minutes still falls a hair below this line, Monk is a good bet to cash the over against the lightning-quick Grizzlies.

Memphis is playing at a pace of 105.5 possessions per game. That’s on track to be the NBA’s fastest pace in over 30 years.

That helps explain why tonight’s matchup has the highest projected total of the night (240 points) despite Memphis owning the league’s fourth-best defensive rating.

With tons of possessions to go around, Monk should get plenty of shots up. This prop should also be aided by the fact that Keegan Murray (10.9 FGA) is doubtful for the Kings.

In two games without Murray this season, Monk has scored 20-plus points both times.

Key stat: Monk has cashed this bet in three of four games against the Grizzlies since last season.

Quick pick

Jackson over 2.5 assists (+105): Jackson only averages 1.8 assists per game and will never be a primary facilitator from the centre position. But he’s been more active as a passer in recent games.

3.7 assists/game in his past seven games
3+ assists in five straight

Jackson collected four assists in back-to-back games, which coincided with the injury absence of point guard Ja Morant. With Morant sidelined again tonight, other players will have to step up.

The Kings allow the 10th-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.5), per Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 01/03/2025.

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Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech college football SGP predictions: Look for Brosmer, Spencer to lead Gophers in Duke’s Mayo Bowl

On Friday night, the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Virginia Tech Hokies duke it out in the penultimate non-playoff bowl game: The Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

The pregame narrative: Virginia Tech will have several glaring absences in this matchup, which has me leaning toward Minnesota on an alt spread. This +275 SGP also features prop picks on Max Brosmer and Elijah Spencer for the Gophers.

Check out my Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech prop picks for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Jan. 3.

Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech predictions

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Parlay: Minnesota -5.5 + Brosmer over 189.5 passing yards + Spencer over 49.5 receiving yards (+275)

Minnesota -5.5 (-195): Opt-outs and transfers have ravaged both sides, but I think Virginia Tech was hit particularly hard.

The Hokies are tracking to be down 13-14 starters, including …

RB1, Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 rush yards)
WR1, Jaylin Lane (582 scrimmage yards)
ACC sack leader, Antwaun Powell-Ryland (16.0 sacks)

Two of four starters in the secondary are out, while the other two could miss after entering the transfer portal.

Oh, and starting quarterback Kyron Drones, who’s dealing with multiple injuries, is doubtful.

Minnesota will likely miss eight or nine starters, but its QB1, RB1 and most of the defence is in tact.

Continuity matters to me — as does the Gophers’ shimmering ATS record. Minnesota is 9-2-1 ATS this season, going 4-for-4 when laying six or fewer points.

Other parlay picks

Brosmer over 189.5 passing yards (-175): Again, opt-outs on the Virginia Tech side play a key role in this pick.

Without Powell-Ryland up front, the Hokies lack a game-breaker on the defensive line who would otherwise make Brosmer’s life exceptionally difficult. Minnesota will be without three starters on the offensive line, but Powell-Ryland’s absence eases that concern.

And again, at least half — but potentially all — of Virginia Tech’s starting secondary will sit out.

With all of that in mind, this becomes a very attainable yardage total for Brosmer.

The FCS New Hampshire transfer threw for 190-plus yards in nine of 12 games this season.

Spencer over 49.5 receiving yards (-113): Will Minnesota’s WR1, Daniel Jackson, play in this bowl game? Ryan Burns from 247 Sports doesn’t think so, and that’s a key reason why I like this pick.

Jackson is a target hog, commanding 9.7 looks per game from Brosmer this season. If he opts out, that leaves a lot of vacated opportunities.

I’m hunting WR1 upside for Spencer here. But even if Jackson plays, Spencer has proven he can clear this yardage total.

60+ rec. yards in 4/5 games since Week 9
7+ targets in 4/5 games since Week 9
Team-high 75 yards vs. Wisconsin in season finale

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET 01/03/2025.

Best NFL Week 18 prop bets: DK Metcalf, Marvin Mims should shine in season finale

The final week of the NFL regular season is here, and I’ve got a pair of prop bets to cover Sunday’s late afternoon action.

The pregame narrative: DK Metcalf is flirting with a milestone yardage total, and I like him to cash in at a plus-money price. Elsewhere, look for Marvin Mims to stay involved in a pivotal matchup.

Check out the best NFL Week 18 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 18 prop bets

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Best bet: Mims over 28.5 receiving yards (-120)

This line just seems way too low for a receiver with big-play upside, who’s also coming off his best target volume of the year.

Last week, Mims caught all of his eight targets — a season-high — and turned them into 103 yards and two TDs.

Mims leads the NFL in punt return yards, and the Denver Broncos have finally figured out that it might be smart to get him the ball on offence, too.

Mims has seen 25+ offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks (he’d averaged 14.8 snaps before that).

He has 40+ receiving yards in 5/6 games since Week 11.

Mims has a catch of 20+ yards in five of his past six games.

Another eight-target week would be great, but it’d be far from necessary. Still, Mims has four-plus targets in five straight games, so I think his floor is secure.

The Kansas City Chiefs boast the No. 4 total defence, and they held Mims to 13 yards in Week 10. But KC has the AFC’s top seed locked up, which means several backups are likely to see action.

Denver needs a win, and Mims should be involved to try to make that happen.

Key stat: Over his past six games, Mims has averaged 63.8 receiving yards.

Quick pick

Metcalf over 57.5 receiving yards (-118): If you’re into NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones, this bet is for you.

Metcalf is 61 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season, which would be his third in a row. It’s time to see how good of a friend Geno Smith is.

Speaking of Smith, he needs 185 passing yards to activate a $2 million bonus. So it’s fair to assume he’ll be motivated to air it out in a game that is otherwise meaningless for the Seattle Seahawks.

The Los Angeles Rams have clinched the NFC West and appear likely to rest at least some of their starters. Last year, Metcalf put up 94 receiving yards in Los Angeles against a full-strength Rams squad.

Picks made at 3:35 p.m. ET on 01/02/2024.

Best NFL Week 18 prop bets: DK Metcalf, Marvin Mims should shine in season finale

The final week of the NFL regular season is here, and I’ve got a trio of prop bets to cover Sunday’s afternoon action.

The pregame narrative: DK Metcalf is flirting with a milestone yardage total, and I like him to cash in at a plus-money price. Elsewhere, look for Bucky Irving to keep rolling in the ground game and for Marvin Mims to stay involved.

Check out the best NFL Week 18 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 18 prop bets

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Best bet: Mims 30+ receiving yards (-105)

This line just seems way too low for a receiver with big-play upside, who’s also coming off his best target volume of the year.

Last week, Mims caught all of his eight targets — a season-high — and turned them into 103 yards and two TDs.

Mims leads the NFL in punt return yards, and the Denver Broncos have finally figured out that it might be smart to get him the ball on offence, too.

Mims has seen 25+ offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks (he’d averaged 14.8 snaps before that).

He has 40+ receiving yards in 5/6 games since Week 11.

Mims has a catch of 20+ yards in five of his past six games.

Another eight-target week would be great, but it’d be far from necessary. Still, Mims has four-plus targets in five straight games, so I think his floor is secure.

The Kansas City Chiefs boast the No. 4 total defence, and they held Mims to 13 yards in Week 10. But KC has the AFC’s top seed locked up, which means several backups are likely to see action.

Denver needs a win, and Mims should be involved to try to make that happen.

Key stat: Over his past six games, Mims has averaged 63.8 receiving yards.

Quick picks

Irving over 84.5 rushing yards (-113): Irving was the dominant tailback in Tampa Bay’s three-RB system last week. In my view, he’s earned another robust workload for Week 18.

Last Sunday, Irving turned 20 carries into 113 yards while amassing 77 yards as a receiver. His backups, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, totalled 78 scrimmage yards on 16 touches.

With the New Orleans Saints due up, Irving should continue to feast.

New Orleans ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush (4.9).

Irving had 105 scrimmage yards (81 rushing) on just 16 touches against the Saints in Week 6.

Irving has cashed this bet in four of his past six games, averaging 90.2 rush yards in that span.

Metcalf 60+ receiving yards (+116): If you’re into NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones, this bet is for you.

Metcalf is 61 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season, which would be his third in a row. It’s time to see how good of a friend Geno Smith is.

Speaking of Smith, he needs 185 passing yards to activate a $2 million bonus. So it’s fair to assume he’ll be motivated to air it out in a game that is otherwise meaningless for the Seattle Seahawks.

The Los Angeles Rams have clinched the NFC West and appear likely to rest at least some of their starters. Last year, Metcalf put up 94 receiving yards in Los Angeles against a full-strength Rams squad.

Picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 01/02/2024.

Duke vs. Ole Miss Gator Bowl prop picks: Bet on Jaxson Dart, Cayden Lee to show up for Rebels

The No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels cap off their season as heavy favourites in the Gator Bowl against the Duke Blue Devils.

The pregame narrative: Ole Miss star quarterback Jaxson Dart will play, which is a key reason why the Rebels are laying a bunch of points. I’ve got prop bets on Dart and Ole Miss receiver Cayden Lee in what should be a rout.

Check out my Duke vs. Ole Miss prop picks for the Gator Bowl on Jan. 2.

Duke vs. Ole Miss prop picks

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Best Bet: Lee 60+ receiving yards (-120)

Tre Harris, arguably the best receiver in the SEC this year, declared for the NFL draft and won’t suit up for the Rebels. That means Dart will have to air it out elsewhere.

Enter Lee, who’s carved out a nice role in the Ole Miss offence over the latter half of the season. Keep in mind that Harris injured his hamstring in Week 7 and played only 16 snaps down the stretch.

Since Harris’ injury on Oct. 12, here’s what Lee has accomplished:

7.0 targets/game
5.2 catches/game
86.7 yards/game

Lee’s consistency has been commendable, too. He has five-plus targets in six straight games.

Jordan Watkins is probably the Rebels’ WR1, but it’s close.

And given that Ole Miss’ starting running back, Henry Parrish Jr., will miss the bowl game, there should be plenty of opportunities for Lee to get involved.

The Gator Bowl will be Dart’s final chance to add to his NFL draft tape as a Rebel, and I expect him to find success chucking the ball to Lee.

Key stat: Lee has 60-plus receiving yards in four of his past six games, while also finishing with exactly 59 yards once.

Quick picks

Dart over 29.5 rushing yards (-107): There’s always a fear that draft-worthy college prospects might get hurt in their bowl games. As such, you’d think Dart will be at least somewhat cautious when tucking and running.

But as I said, this is his last chance to boost his draft stock as a Rebel. Escapability is paramount for modern NFL quarterbacks, and Dart can flash that skill set.

Dart rushed for 45-plus yards in four straight games to close out the regular season.

He had a season-high 77 rush yards in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.

On the year, Dart averaged 37.7 rush yards and cashed this bet in seven of 12 games.

With Parrish sidelined, Dart is the Rebels’ active leading rusher. And though I doubt his volume of carries will be high, this is a bar he can definitely clear.

Henry Belin IV 175+ passing yards (-127): Maalik Murphy transferred, which means Belin will make his second collegiate start on Thursday night.

As you can imagine, there are plenty of unknowns about how this will play out. The former three-star recruit has completed just 19 passes in three seasons at Duke.

Enter at your own risk with this pick, but I think it makes sense on paper.

As a 17.5-point underdog, Duke will likely be in a position to throw all game.

Ole Miss ranks No. 1 in yards allowed per rush, so running the ball likely won’t be effective anyway.

Duke’s top running back, Star Thomas, is in the transfer portal and will not play.

Whether or not he’s efficient, I see a path to this yardage milestone for Belin based on opportunity. And I’m sure he’s relishing the chance to show Duke what he can do.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.

Celtics vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Jan. 2: Take the under but bet on Jayson Tatum

The Boston Celtics enter 2025 on a four-game Western Conference road trip, which begins on Thursday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are strong on defence, so I’m backing a teased-up under in this +370 SGP. But I also like Jayson Tatum to clear his points prop, and for Rudy Gobert to succeed on the glass.

Check out my Celtics vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 2.

Celtics vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Under 225.5 points + Tatum over 25.5 points + Gobert over 9.5 rebounds (+370)

Under 225.5 points (-210): Only one-third of the NBA’s 30 teams are cashing unders at an above-50% clip this year. And two of those squads are the Celtics and Timberwolves.

Boston allows 108.9 PPG (7th in the NBA), while Minnesota allows 107.4 PPG (4th).

Each of their past three matchups in Minnesota went under 225.5 points.

In their lone matchup this season (in Boston), the Celtics and Timberwolves combined for 212 points.

Both sides are strong defensively, but I also like this under because neither team plays particularly fast. Boston and Minnesota rank 21st and 25th, respectively, in possessions per game.

In their past 15 games, the T-Wolves have hit this under 14 times.

SGP legs

Tatum over 25.5 points (-134): A teased-up under on the game total doesn’t have me shying away from backing Tatum.

The eighth-year forward is on career-high paces for rebounds and assists this year, but he’s still made room for a 28.3 PPG scoring average.

That has plenty to do with Boston’s 3-point-heavy philosophy. Tatum is attempting a career-high 10.5 threes, which certainly raises his scoring floor.

Tatum has cashed this bet in 19 of 30 games this season, which includes a Nov. 24 matchup against Minnesota. He finished with 26 points that night despite struggling from the floor (8-for-21).

Also, Tatum has cashed this bet in 11 of 13 road games.

Gobert over 9.5 rebounds (-148): Gobert grabbed a season-high 20 rebounds when he faced the Celtics in November. I’m only asking for half of that tonight in this SGP.

The one-time rebounding champ isn’t at the peak of his powers, but he’s still on track to average more than 10.0 rebounds for a 10th consecutive year.

Since the 2021-22 season, Gobert has averaged 12.2 RPG against the Celtics and cashed this bet in five of six matchups.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET 01/02/2025

Bengals vs. Steelers Week 18 prop picks: Mike Gesicki should stay involved on Saturday night

On Saturday night, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers play a meaningful matchup in their season finale.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have playoff-related implications that will require them to play at full strength. I’m backing yardage overs for one player per side, Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson and Cincinnati’s Mike Gesicki.

Check out my Bengals vs. Steelers prop picks for their Week 18 game on Jan. 4.

Bengals vs. Steelers prop picks

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Best Bet: Gesicki over 30.5 yards (-118)

Gesicki had a massive day last weekend to help the Bengals keep their season alive. He should stay involved enough to cash this over in Week 18.

Last Saturday against the Denver Broncos, Gesicki enjoyed season highs in targets (12) and receptions (10). He turned that opportunity into 86 receiving yards, including a pair of catches in overtime.

It’d be rash to assume Gesicki will see that kind of work again, but he doesn’t need anything close to it to cash this bet.

Since Week 8, Gesicki has 30+ yards in 6/9 games.

He’s averaged 5.7 targets and 46.3 yards in that span.

On Dec. 1, Gesicki had five catches for 53 yards vs. PIT.

Chase Brown (ankle) was a non-participant in practice to start the week. If he’s out — or at least limited — that should cement a greater role in the short-yardage passing game for Gesicki.

Key stat: Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends (5.8).

Quick picks

Wilson over 225.5 passing yards (-120): Let’s see if a date with the Bengals can get Wilson out of a funk.

Wilson has thrown for fewer than 220 yards in four consecutive games. The Steelers have also lost three in a row, scoring 17 or fewer points in each of those matchups.

But let’s not forget how porous Cincy’s defence has been — and the fact that Wilson did his best work against that group last month.

The Bengals rank 29th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed this season. In Week 12, Wilson carved them up for 414 yards and three TDs on 29-of-38 passing.

Pittsburgh’s top receiver, George Pickens, missed three of the team’s past four games. That’s a critical piece of Wilson’s recent woes.

With a healthy Pickens and a juicy matchup, I like Wilson to put up some solid yardage.

Picks made at 3:50 p.m. ET 01/01/2025.

Bengals vs. Steelers Week 18 prop picks: Mike Gesicki should stay involved on Saturday night

On Saturday night, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers play a meaningful matchup in their season finale.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have playoff-related implications that will require them to play at full strength. I’m backing yardage overs for one player per side, Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson and Cincinnati’s Mike Gesicki.

Check out my Bengals vs. Steelers prop picks for their Week 18 game on Jan. 4.

Bengals vs. Steelers prop picks

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Best Bet: Gesicki over 27.5 yards (-114)

Gesicki had a massive day last weekend to help the Bengals keep their season alive. He should stay involved enough to cash this over in Week 18.

Last Saturday against the Denver Broncos, Gesicki enjoyed season highs in targets (12) and receptions (10). He turned that opportunity into 86 receiving yards, including a pair of catches in overtime.

It’d be rash to assume Gesicki will see that kind of work again, but he doesn’t need anything close to it to cash this bet.

Since Week 8, Gesicki has 30+ yards in 6/9 games.

He’s averaged 5.7 targets and 46.3 yards in that span.

On Dec. 1, Gesicki had five catches for 53 yards vs. PIT.

Chase Brown (ankle) was a non-participant in practice to start the week. If he’s out — or at least limited — that should cement a greater role in the short-yardage passing game for Gesicki.

Key stat: Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends (5.8).

Quick picks

Wilson over 235.5 passing yards (-114): Let’s see if a date with the Bengals can get Wilson out of a funk.

Wilson has thrown for fewer than 220 yards in four consecutive games. The Steelers have also lost three in a row, scoring 17 or fewer points in each of those matchups.

But let’s not forget how porous Cincy’s defence has been — and the fact that Wilson did his best work against that group last month.

The Bengals rank 29th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed this season. In Week 12, Wilson carved them up for 414 yards and three TDs on 29-of-38 passing.

Pittsburgh’s top receiver, George Pickens, missed three of the team’s past four games. That’s a critical piece of Wilson’s recent woes.

With a healthy Pickens and a juicy matchup, I like Wilson to put up some solid yardage.

Picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET 01/01/2025.