Jordan Horrobin

The Toronto Raptors put their struggling defence to the test on Monday against a hungry Milwaukee Bucks team.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee has dropped four of its past five games but now faces a Toronto defence that has been arguably the worst in the league in recent weeks. I like Damian Lillard as a scorer, and I’m backing Scottie Barnes to pile up assists.

Check out my Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks for Jan. 6.

Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Lillard over 23.5 points (-129)

Toronto has been getting steamrolled on defence recently, so I feel compelled to back someone to put up points for the Bucks.

In their past 15 games, here’s where the Raptors rank on the defensive side:

• 30th in points (121.3/game)
• 30th in free throw attempts (26.5)
• 29th in defensive rating (118.7)
• 29th in rebounding rate (48.3%)

Lillard, who’s averaging 24.7 PPG this year, looks like a strong candidate to take advantage of this matchup.

Over his past 13 games, the veteran point guard has cashed this bet nine times. He also has 30-plus points in four of his past five matchups against Toronto, dating back to January 2023.

One of the nice things about backing Lillard as a scorer is that his stellar free throw shooting can mask a rough night from the field. He ranks No. 4 all-time in free throw percentage (89.8%) and averages 6.8 attempts per game.

Given how often Toronto is sending opponents to the line right now, Lillard should lean into that aspect of his game if needed.

Key stat: The Raptors allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.1), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Barnes over 5.5 assists (-106): Barnes is averaging 6.6 assists per game this season. That alone makes this pick somewhat compelling to me.

Furthermore, with RJ Barrett (questionable) potentially back in the lineup, Barnes might have an additional scoring outlet to feed. The Barnes-to-Barrett connection has worked well in the past.

In their past 25 games together, Barnes has averaged 7.5 assists and cashed this bet 19 times (76.0%).

This season as a whole, Barnes has gone over 5.5 assists in 14 of 22 games (63.6%).

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET 01/06/2025.

With the NFL regular season in the rearview and the NHL going with a light slate on Monday, the NBA will be firmly in the spotlight.

The latest: There are nine NBA games on tap for Monday, concluding with the Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat against the Sacramento Kings. Earlier on, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to snap a 3-6 funk as home favourites against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out our basketball betting lines and NBA schedule for Jan. 6.

NBA schedule: Jan. 6

Visit all of tonight’s NBA markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers

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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Detroit Pistons

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Indiana Pacers vs. Brooklyn Nets

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors

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Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Chicago Bulls

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

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Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings

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Betting insights

• Notable players listed as questionable on the NBA injury report (as of 8:30 a.m.): Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, RJ Barrett and D’Angelo Russell.

• The Suns, who are 1-7 since Dec. 19, are reportedly taking Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic out of their starting lineup on Monday. Phoenix is believed to be among the top suitors for Jimmy Butler. The 76ers are back home after going 4-2 on a recent road trip, which began with a Christmas Day with over the NBA Finals frontrunners, the Boston Celtics.

• The over is 5-0-1 in the Pacers’ past six games. But the last time Indiana played Brooklyn, on Dec. 4, the Pacers saw their third-lowest game total of the year (189 points).

• Chicago beat San Antonio by 15 points last month, but Victor Wembanyama didn’t play in that game. In his past 10 matchups, Wemby has averaged 29.5 PPG and 11.7 RPG while shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.
  
• In Miami’s first game since suspending Butler — who publicly indicated that he wanted out — the Heat lost at home against the Jazz, 136-100. Now they’re road underdogs against a Kings squad that has won four in a row, with wins over the Warriors, Grizzlies and Mavericks in that span.

In the NBA’s final matchup of the night, the Los Angeles Clippers host the Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard is expected to make his season debut for L.A., but I’m looking elsewhere on the prop market. My +400 SGP has picks on James Harden, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels.

Check out my Hawks vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 4.

Hawks vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Harden over 2.5 threes + Johnson over 18.5 points + Daniels over 2.5 steals/blocks (+400)

Harden over 2.5 threes (-148): Atlanta is the absolute best team to bet against at the 3-point line.

The Hawks allow the most 3s per game (15.5) at the highest 3PT% (38.4).

Enter Harden, who’s been solid against this line all season:

• 2.8 threes per game
• 3+ threes in 12/22 games since Nov. 11

Even in a mediocre matchup, Harden would look like a good play at this number.

The expectant return of Leonard could affect how many 3s Harden attempts, but he’s still a solid volume shooter when both players are on the court.

In 61 games alongside Leonard last season, Harden averaged 2.6 threes on 39.2% shooting.

SGP legs

Johnson over 18.5 points (-122): In Year 4, Johnson continues taking more and more ownership in the Hawks’ offence.

The small forward is averaging 19.8 PPG in 32 games. He’s shooting more and getting to the free-throw line more than ever before.

Johnson should be oozing with confidence after scoring a career-high 30 points on Boxing Day. He now has 19-plus points in 12 of his past 17 games, as well as 20 of 32 games on the season (62.5%).

Daniels over 2.5 steals/blocks (-148): For my money, Daniels has the best nickname in the NBA — the Great Barrier Thief.

The Aussie guard has swiped a league-high 3.2 steals per game to go with 0.8 blocks. That’s 4.0 “stocks,” which is well above this line.

• Daniels has cashed this bet in 19 of his past 25 games.

• The Clippers yield the second-most steals per game to opponents (9.9).

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 01/04/2025

Saturday’s NBA prop bets are headlined by Jaren Jackson Jr. and James Harden.

The pregame narrative: I’m fading Harden tonight as his rebound/assist volume has really waned in recent matchups. Earlier on, look for Jackson to stay active as a passer and for Duncan Robinson to fill the net from 3-point range.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 4.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Jackson over 2.5 assists (-143)

On Friday, I backed Jackson over 2.5 assists and cashed it at +105. In fact, it cashed easily on a night in which Jackson had five helpers.

Going back to the well comes with a price hike tonight, but I’m still keen to do so.

Although Jackson has only averaged 1.9 assists this season (33 games), his current situation has elevated his passing opportunities.

Ja Morant, the Memphis Grizzlies’ star point guard and assist leader, is out with a shoulder injury. Other players have had to step up in his absence, and Jackson is one of them.

• With Morant out for the past three games, Jackson has tallied 13 assists and cashed this bet each time.

• Jackson has 3+ assists in six straight now, averaging 4.2 APG in that span.

In his past six matchups, Jackson has generated 6.7 potential assists per game (i.e., passes that led to immediate shots). If that trend continues, clearing 2.5 assists should be a cinch.

The Grizzlies are on a back-to-back, which hopefully won’t affect Jackson’s workload much. And their opponent, the Golden State Warriors, are a good team for him to attack as a passer.

Key stat: Golden State allows the third-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.8), per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Robinson over 2.5 threes (-121): The Jimmy Butler saga took an interesting turn Friday, as the Miami Heat suspended their star veteran following his public trade request.

Miami had already been weaning off Butler since the back half of December. The six-time all-star played in only three of the team’s past eight games, attempting just 11 total shots in those matchups.

And in that time, Robinson has been one of the players filling in the gaps on offence.

• Robinson has 3+ threes in 7/11 games since Dec. 7.

• In that span, he’s shooting 41.9% from 3-point range.

Tonight’s opponent, the Utah Jazz, is one that Robinson should be encouraged to attack from deep. The Jazz allow the fifth-most attempted 3s per game (39.6) and the ninth-highest 3PT% (36.5).

Harden under 12.5 rebounds/assists (+107): Kawhi Leonard is reportedly expected to make his season debut tonight, which is certainly good news for the Los Angeles Clippers.

But what will it mean for Harden? After all, Leonard has averaged 6.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists in his four years with L.A.

Harden is averaging 13.9 RA this season, so taking the under at 12.5 RA for tonight might seem questionable. But I do think some of those opportunities will be ceded to Leonard.

Also, Harden has struggled against this number in recent weeks.

Since Dec. 3, Harden has averaged 9.1 RA and hit this under in nine of 10 games.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 01/04/2025.

For Saturday night’s matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Indiana Pacers, I’m going big with a +450 same-game parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Suns are sliding right now, and I don’t think a trip to the Midwest is going to get their new year off to a good start. In the player prop market, I think Kevin Durant and Pascal Siakam are both in good spots to contribute.

Check out my Suns vs. Pacers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 4.

Suns vs. Pacers predictions

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Parlay: Pacers moneyline + Durant over 26.5 points + Siakam over 2.5 assists (+450)

Pacers moneyline (-121): After finishing as the No. 6 seeds in their respective conferences last year, the Pacers and Suns are on a play-in trajectory — or worse.

In a battle of sub-.500 squads, Indiana’s home-court advantage means something to me. Or rather, Phoenix’s disadvantage of playing on the road.

The Suns are 5-9 away from Footprint Center, which includes a 1-8 record as road underdogs.

Road underdogs are supposed to lose, so that shouldn’t be much of a surprise. But it’s also not a surprise why Phoenix is an underdog on Saturday.

On Dec. 19, the Pacers beat the Suns in the desert, 120-111, as 6-point underdogs. That was the first of six losses in a seven-game span for Phoenix.

Indiana, meanwhile, is 7-3 in its past 10.

SGP legs

Durant over 26.5 points (-132): Phoenix’s recent struggles haven’t rubbed off on Durant. He’s the only reason things haven’t been even uglier.

During the Suns’ 1-6 skid, Durant has put up big minutes and big scoring numbers:

• 32.1 PPG
• .500/.405/.857 shooting
• 27+ points in 6/7 games

In a losing effort against the Pacers, Durant had 37 points on 15-of-27 shooting. None of his teammates even hit the 20-point threshold.

With Bradley Beal questionable to go tonight, Durant could see even more opportunities. But he’s already doing plenty with what he has.

Indiana has hit the over in five straight games, and another high-scoring environment would be a boon for this pick.

Siakam over 2.5 assists (-167): Playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Siakam isn’t asked to pass the rock as often as he was in Toronto.

Still, this line is too low for a guy who’s averaging 3.4 assists per game and playing in a plus matchup.

The Suns allow 5.1 APG to opposing power forwards, per Betting Pros, which is the fourth-most in the NBA.

Siakam has cashed this bet in eight of his past 11 games — including the Dec. 19 matchup against Phoenix.

Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET 01/04/2025