Saturday’s NBA prop bets are headlined by Jaren Jackson Jr. and James Harden.
The pregame narrative: I’m fading Harden tonight as his rebound/assist volume has really waned in recent matchups. Earlier on, look for Jackson to stay active as a passer and for Duncan Robinson to fill the net from 3-point range.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 4.
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Best bet: Jackson over 2.5 assists (-143)
On Friday, I backed Jackson over 2.5 assists and cashed it at +105. In fact, it cashed easily on a night in which Jackson had five helpers.
Going back to the well comes with a price hike tonight, but I’m still keen to do so.
Although Jackson has only averaged 1.9 assists this season (33 games), his current situation has elevated his passing opportunities.
Ja Morant, the Memphis Grizzlies’ star point guard and assist leader, is out with a shoulder injury. Other players have had to step up in his absence, and Jackson is one of them.
- With Morant out for the past three games, Jackson has tallied 13 assists and cashed this bet each time.
- Jackson has 3+ assists in six straight now, averaging 4.2 APG in that span.
In his past six matchups, Jackson has generated 6.7 potential assists per game (i.e., passes that led to immediate shots). If that trend continues, clearing 2.5 assists should be a cinch.
The Grizzlies are on a back-to-back, which hopefully won’t affect Jackson’s workload much. And their opponent, the Golden State Warriors, are a good team for him to attack as a passer.
Key stat: Golden State allows the third-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.8), per Betting Pros.
Quick picks
Robinson over 2.5 threes (-121): The Jimmy Butler saga took an interesting turn Friday, as the Miami Heat suspended their star veteran following his public trade request.
Miami had already been weaning off Butler since the back half of December. The six-time all-star played in only three of the team’s past eight games, attempting just 11 total shots in those matchups.
And in that time, Robinson has been one of the players filling in the gaps on offence.
- Robinson has 3+ threes in 7/11 games since Dec. 7.
- In that span, he’s shooting 41.9% from 3-point range.
Tonight’s opponent, the Utah Jazz, is one that Robinson should be encouraged to attack from deep. The Jazz allow the fifth-most attempted 3s per game (39.6) and the ninth-highest 3PT% (36.5).
Harden under 12.5 rebounds/assists (+107): Kawhi Leonard is reportedly expected to make his season debut tonight, which is certainly good news for the Los Angeles Clippers.
But what will it mean for Harden? After all, Leonard has averaged 6.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists in his four years with L.A.
Harden is averaging 13.9 RA this season, so taking the under at 12.5 RA for tonight might seem questionable. But I do think some of those opportunities will be ceded to Leonard.
Also, Harden has struggled against this number in recent weeks.
Since Dec. 3, Harden has averaged 9.1 RA and hit this under in nine of 10 games.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 01/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.