In the NBA’s final matchup of the night, the Los Angeles Clippers host the Atlanta Hawks.
The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard is expected to make his season debut for L.A., but I’m looking elsewhere on the prop market. My +400 SGP has picks on James Harden, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels.
Check out my Hawks vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 4.
Hawks vs. Clippers predictions
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Parlay: Harden over 2.5 threes + Johnson over 18.5 points + Daniels over 2.5 steals/blocks (+400)
Harden over 2.5 threes (-148): Atlanta is the absolute best team to bet against at the 3-point line.
The Hawks allow the most 3s per game (15.5) at the highest 3PT% (38.4).
Enter Harden, who’s been solid against this line all season:
- 2.8 threes per game
- 3+ threes in 12/22 games since Nov. 11
Even in a mediocre matchup, Harden would look like a good play at this number.
The expectant return of Leonard could affect how many 3s Harden attempts, but he’s still a solid volume shooter when both players are on the court.
In 61 games alongside Leonard last season, Harden averaged 2.6 threes on 39.2% shooting.
SGP legs
Johnson over 18.5 points (-122): In Year 4, Johnson continues taking more and more ownership in the Hawks’ offence.
The small forward is averaging 19.8 PPG in 32 games. He’s shooting more and getting to the free-throw line more than ever before.
Johnson should be oozing with confidence after scoring a career-high 30 points on Boxing Day. He now has 19-plus points in 12 of his past 17 games, as well as 20 of 32 games on the season (62.5%).
Daniels over 2.5 steals/blocks (-148): For my money, Daniels has the best nickname in the NBA — the Great Barrier Thief.
The Aussie guard has swiped a league-high 3.2 steals per game to go with 0.8 blocks. That’s 4.0 “stocks,” which is well above this line.
- Daniels has cashed this bet in 19 of his past 25 games.
- The Clippers yield the second-most steals per game to opponents (9.9).
Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 01/04/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.