Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Best NFL wild-card prop picks: Bet on Josh Allen and Isaiah Likely

A quarterback/tight end tandem in the AFC makes up my NFL wild-card prop picks for this weekend’s slate.

The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has never seen an open patch of turf he didn’t want to run through, and I think the over on his rushing yards prop is a great play for Sunday. I’m also backing Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop.

Check out my NFL prop picks for the 2025 wild-card action.

NFL prop picks

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Best bet: Allen over 41.5 rushing yards (-118)

Welcome back to the playoff Josh Allen experience.

Allen can turn into a two-legged battering ram in any game against any opponent.

But he’s demonstrated a greater willingness to do that when the postseason begins.

Situation	Rush attempts/game	Rush yards/game
Regular season (111 GP)	6.8	37.3
Playoffs (10 GP)	8.3	56.3

Allen tends to obliterate this yardage number in the postseason, not just clear it. He has 65-plus rush yards in five of his past seven playoff games.

The Denver Broncos were one of the toughest teams to run against this year. Their defence ranked No. 2 in rush success rate and No. 4 in EPA per rush, according to rbsdm.com.

But in a way, that makes me feel even better about this pick.

There’s a chance that James Cook and the Bills’ traditional run game can’t get going. Allen will likely have some scripted runs, too, but he’s also an expert at creating with his legs in off-schedule plays.

Look for Allen to show up as a strong playoff runner like usual.

Key stat: In two playoff games last year (both at home), Allen rushed 20 times for 146 yards and three TDs. He cashed this prop both times.

Quick pick

Likely over 26.5 receiving yards (-120): The Baltimore Ravens won’t have their top receiving target, Zay Flowers, available on Saturday night.

That should open doors for some other options, and I think Likely is a guy to key in on.

Baltimore loves using its tight ends as receivers, evidenced by the fact that Mark Andrews and Likely ranked third and fourth on the team, respectively, in both targets and yards this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a tight-end-friendly matchup, too, as they’ve allowed 6.2 catches per game to opposing TEs (tied for second-most in the NFL).

Likely has 104 yards through two games against Pittsburgh this year and has cashed this bet in three straight head-to-head meetings.

NFL picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 01/10/24.

Best NFL wild-card prop picks: Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen should run wild

A pair of star quarterbacks headline my NFL wild-card prop picks for this weekend’s slate.

The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has never seen an open patch of turf he didn’t want to run through, and I think the over on his rushing yards prop is a great play for Sunday. I’m also taking overs involving Jayden Daniels and Isaiah Likely.

Check out my NFL prop picks for the 2025 wild-card action.

NFL prop picks

Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.

Embed: #105879

Best bet: Allen over 41.5 rushing yards (-112)

Welcome back to the playoff Josh Allen experience.

Allen can turn into a two-legged battering ram in any game against any opponent.

But he’s demonstrated a greater willingness to do that when the postseason begins.

Situation	Rush attempts/game	Rush yards/game
Regular season (111 GP)	6.8	37.3
Playoffs (10 GP)	8.3	56.3

Allen tends to obliterate this yardage number in the postseason, not just clear it. He has 65-plus rush yards in five of his past seven playoff games.

The Denver Broncos were one of the toughest teams to run against this year. Their defence ranked No. 2 in rush success rate and No. 4 in EPA per rush, according to rbsdm.com.

But in a way, that makes me feel even better about this pick.

There’s a chance that James Cook and the Bills’ traditional run game can’t get going. Allen will likely have some scripted runs, too, but he’s also an expert at creating with his legs in off-schedule plays.

Look for Allen to show up as a strong playoff runner like usual.

Key stat: In two playoff games last year (both at home), Allen rushed 20 times for 146 yards and three TDs. He cashed this prop both times.

Other prop picks

Likely over 27.5 receiving yards (-118): The Baltimore Ravens won’t have their top receiving target, Zay Flowers, available on Saturday night.

That should open doors for some other options, and I think Likely is a guy to key in on.

Baltimore loves using its tight ends as receivers, evidenced by the fact that Mark Andrews and Likely ranked third and fourth on the team, respectively, in both targets and yards this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a tight-end-friendly matchup, too, as they’ve allowed 6.2 catches per game to opposing TEs (tied for second-most in the NFL).

Likely has 104 yards through two games against Pittsburgh this year and has cashed this bet in three straight head-to-head meetings.

Daniels over 287.5 passing/rushing yards (-114): Daniels made his NFL debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, flashing with 88 rushing yards on 16 carries.

He completed 17 of 24 passes that game, too, but fell short of this line with 272 passing/rushing yards in total.

Still, it was a promising start for what turned into a Rookie-of-the-Year-calibre season.

Aside from his Week 18 start, in which Daniels rested for the second half, the ex-LSU quarterback has cleared this total in four of his past five games — averaging 314.8 passing/rushing yards in those games.

The Bucs’ defence ranks 27th in dropback success rate and 19th in EPA per dropback.

Daniels is dangerous as a runner, but he should find success through the air in this matchup, too.

NFL picks made at 11:48 a.m. on 01/10/24.

Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks Jan. 10: Fade Brunson, bet on Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists prop

For the second consecutive Friday, the Oklahoma City Thunder square off against the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson are two of the best point guards in the game, and I’ve got prop bets on both of them tonight. I’m also taking the over on Isaiah Hartenstein’s rebounds/assists prop.

Check out my Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks for Jan. 10.

Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks

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Best Bet: Brunson under 23.5 points (-110)

The Thunder are about as tough of a matchup as Brunson could face right now, and that’s the main reason I’m looking to fade him.

In their past 15 games, the Thunder have the NBA’s No. 1 defensive rating (102.7).

OKC has also allowed the fewest points per game (103.1) and the lowest opponent field goal percentage (43.2%) in that span.

Point guards are scoring just 21.3 PPG vs. OKC this year, which is the lowest average in the league, per Betting Pros.

The Thunder are undersized, but they make up for it with quickness and aggressiveness on defence. No team has forced more turnovers than OKC this year (18.7 per game).

Last week, Brunson scored 22 points against the Thunder on 9-of-23 shooting. Not great.

Though he’s averaging 25.0 PPG on the season, this looks like a solid spot to bet on Brunson turning in a below-average performance.

Key stat: Brunson is averaging 21.0 PPG at home this season, hitting this under in nine of 16 games.

Quick picks

Hartenstein over 16.5 rebounds/assists (-110): Hartenstein feasted against the Knicks last Friday, snagging 14 rebounds to go with seven assists (21 RA).

Is there any extra motivation for the 7-footer to perform against his old team? Maybe, but that’s not really what this is about.

Hartenstein should be the Thunder’s primary rebounder on a nightly basis (at least while Chet Holmgren is out). He’s four-plus inches taller than each of OKC’s other rotation players.

In the first Thunder/Knicks game of the season, Hartenstein and Knicks centre Karl-Anthony Towns accounted for 36 of the game’s 83 rebounds (43.4%). And with KAT listed as questionable tonight, even more of those boards could funnel to Hartenstein.

Keep in mind that Hartenstein is an unselfish big, too. He averages the second-most passes per game on OKC and has four-plus assists in six of his past seven.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists (+100): Hopefully Hartenstein isn’t hogging all the assists, because this is a very playable number for SGA.

Though he’s averaging 30-plus points for a third straight season, the Canadian superstar still dishes the rock plenty.

Gilgeous-Alexander averages 6.1 assists per game and has cleared this total in six of his past eight — including a seven-assist effort against the Knicks on Jan. 3.

He’s also averaging 12.5 potential assists per game, which equates to his total passes that lead directly to a shot.

For context, all 25 NBA players averaging at least 11.0 potential assists per game are also averaging at least 5.5 assists.

Picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET 01/10/2024.

Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks Jan. 10: Fade Brunson, bet on Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists prop

For the second consecutive Friday, the Oklahoma City Thunder square off against the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson are two of the best point guards in the game, and I’ve got prop bets on both of them tonight. I’m also taking the over on Isaiah Hartenstein’s rebounds/assists prop.

Check out my Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks for Jan. 10.

Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

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Best Bet: Brunson under 23.5 points (-109)

The Thunder are about as tough of a matchup as Brunson could face right now, and that’s the main reason I’m looking to fade him.

In their past 15 games, the Thunder have the NBA’s No. 1 defensive rating (102.7).

OKC has also allowed the fewest points per game (103.1) and the lowest opponent field goal percentage (43.2%) in that span.

Point guards are scoring just 21.3 PPG vs. OKC this year, which is the lowest average in the league, per Betting Pros.

The Thunder are undersized, but they make up for it with quickness and aggressiveness on defence. No team has forced more turnovers than OKC this year (18.7 per game).

Last week, Brunson scored 22 points against the Thunder on 9-of-23 shooting. Not great.

Though he’s averaging 25.0 PPG on the season, this looks like a solid spot to bet on Brunson turning in a below-average performance.

Key stat: Brunson is averaging 21.0 PPG at home this season, hitting this under in nine of 16 games.

Quick picks

Hartenstein over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-132): Hartenstein feasted against the Knicks last Friday, snagging 14 rebounds to go with seven assists (21 RA).

Is there any extra motivation for the 7-footer to perform against his old team? Maybe, but that’s not really what this is about.

Hartenstein should be the Thunder’s primary rebounder on a nightly basis (at least while Chet Holmgren is out). He’s four-plus inches taller than each of OKC’s other rotation players.

In the first Thunder/Knicks game of the season, Hartenstein and Knicks centre Karl-Anthony Towns accounted for 36 of the game’s 83 rebounds (43.4%). And with KAT listed as questionable tonight, even more of those boards could funnel to Hartenstein.

Keep in mind that Hartenstein is an unselfish big, too. He averages the second-most passes per game on OKC and has four-plus assists in six of his past seven.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists (-114): Hopefully Hartenstein isn’t hogging all the assists, because this is a very playable number for SGA.

Though he’s averaging 30-plus points for a third straight season, the Canadian superstar still dishes the rock plenty.

Gilgeous-Alexander averages 6.1 assists per game and has cleared this total in six of his past eight — including a seven-assist effort against the Knicks on Jan. 3.

He’s also averaging 12.5 potential assists per game, which equates to his total passes that lead directly to a shot.

For context, all 25 NBA players averaging at least 11.0 potential assists per game are also averaging at least 5.5 assists.

Picks made at 9:22 a.m. ET 01/10/2024.

Ohio State vs. Texas Cotton Bowl prop picks: Fade Quinn Ewers in CFP semifinal vs. former team

On Friday, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns meet in the Cotton Bowl for a berth in the national championship.

The pregame narrative: Ohio State is a 6-point favourite in the second College Football Playoff semifinal. I expect a big game from freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, and I think Quinn Ewers is worth fading.

Check out my Ohio State vs. Texas prop picks for the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 10.

Ohio State vs. Texas prop picks

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Embed: #105794

Best Bet: Smith 90+ receiving yards (-121)

True freshmen aren’t supposed to do what Smith has done this season.

Led the Big Ten in receiving yards (1,224) and receiving TDs (14)
Scored 1+ TDs in 11/14 games
Collected 70+ yards in 11/14 games

A lot of folks think Smith is ready to be a top-five NFL draft pick today, and I agree with them. At 19, he plays like a man among boys at the collegiate level.

Texas is undoubtedly aware that Smith is the guy to have eyes on. But that doesn’t mean the Longhorns can stop him.

All season long, Texas was regarded as one of the top pass defences in the country. The Longhorns rank No. 2 in defensive EPA per pass and No. 3 in defensive pass success rate, per gameonpaper.com. But they’ve gotten torched through the air in the CFP.

After allowing no more than 211 pass yards to any of its first 13 opponents, Texas allowed 336 pass yards to Clemson and 296 to Arizona State.

Both Clemson and Arizona State had a receiver clear this yardage total, too.

In any one-on-one setting, Jeremiah Smith will have the upper hand. He’s been a menace in the playoffs so far and that should continue.

Key stat: Smith has 100-plus receiving yards in three of his past five games — cashing this prop in both CFP matchups (290 total receiving yards vs. Tennessee and Oregon).

Quick pick

Ewers under 239.5 passing yards (-118): Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel is the only quarterback to throw for more than 201 yards against Ohio State this season. Not that the Buckeyes faced a bunch of A-list college QBs, but that’s still quite a feat.

I like the idea of a revenge game for Ewers, a former No. 1 overall recruit who signed with Ohio State and then transferred before ever throwing a pass. But the numbers don’t work in his favour.

Ewers has gone under this mark in four of his past six games, and he’s about to face arguably the country’s best defence.

Ohio State ranks …

1st in defensive success rate
3rd in defensive EPA/pass
3rd in sacks/game

Based on the fact Ewers was never replaced by Arch Manning during Texas’ perilous quarterfinal matchup against Arizona State, it seems unlikely he’d be benched on Friday.

But even if Ewers is on the field the whole time, that doesn’t mean he’ll be racking up yards.

Picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET 01/09/2025.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Orange Bowl SGP predictions: Fade Allar, look for Love to bounce back in CFP semifinal

The College Football Playoff is back on Thursday night with a semifinal matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions.

The pregame narrative: One team will emerge from the Orange Bowl and earn a berth in the national championship game. Instead of picking a side, my +390 SGP includes an alt under to go with prop picks on Jordan Faison, Jeremiyah Love and Drew Allar.

Check out my Notre Dame vs. Penn State same-game parlay predictions for the semifinal CFP matchup on Jan. 9.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions

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Embed: #105754

Parlay: Under 50.5 points + Faison 30+ receiving yards + Love 30+ rushing yards + Allar under 219.5 passing/rushing yards (+390)

Under 50.5 points (-240): My favourite straight wager for this game is the under on the standard line, so I had to work a teased-up under into this SGP.

Notre Dame and Penn State both wield top-10 scoring defences, allowing a collective 29.4 PPG.

Their defences also seem to thrive where it’ll matter most on Thursday, too:

ND has 190+ rush yards in 10/14 games … but PSU hasn’t allowed 190 rush yards to any team this season.

Allar has a 67.4% completion rate for PSU … but ND has the lowest opponent completion rate in the country (50.6%).

Oh, and unders are 2-0 for both of these teams in the CFP so far.

Other parlay picks

Faison 30+ receiving yards (-215): After being used sparingly in the first eight weeks of the season, something changed for Faison against Navy on Oct. 26.

Since that game, Faison has been a consistently productive weapon in the Fighting Irish’s offence:

4+ targets in 5/7 games
2+ catches in 7/7 games
42.3 yards/game

Faison’s best work has come in the playoffs, where he has 11 catches for 135 yards. He’s cashed this bet both times.

The sophomore receiver has been reliable for Notre Dame and should continue to see looks — especially if the run game breaks down against a ferocious Penn State front.

Love 30+ rushing yards (-245): Speaking of Notre Dame’s run game … Love is perfectly capable of clearing this line even if things don’t go swimmingly.

The primary risk with Love is that he tweaked his knee during the CFP quarterfinal round, finishing with just six carries for 19 yards. But there’ve been some encouraging reports about Love leading up to this game.

Though Love was seen wearing a knee brace in practice during the week, he wasn’t listed on the injury report.

ND coach Marcus Freeman said Love “had a good week of practice” and that he’ll be “good to go.”

Love has cashed this bet in 12 of 14 games, averaging 76.9 yards on the year. Can he scrounge together half his usual production in a game the Irish have to have? I think so.

Allar under 219.5 passing/rushing yards (-186): I’ve already stated my case for the under in this game, but even if Penn State puts up points, it won’t necessarily need a big effort from Allar.

The Nittany Lions have scored 31-plus points in four straight games, and Allar has gone under this number in three of them.

Allar’s toughest test this year came against Ohio State, and he didn’t fare well. The junior QB completed 12 of 20 passes for 146 yards while adding 31 on the ground.

Notre Dame is in the same tier of defence as Ohio State. The Irish rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per pass, defensive pass success rate and defensive net EPA, per gameonpaper.com.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 01/09/2025.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks Jan. 9: Bet on Durant, Risacher to produce

The struggling Phoenix Suns host the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night in the desert.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix, which is 2-8 in its past 10 games, will need to continue to lean on Kevin Durant in order to turn things around. I’m taking the over on Durant’s points prop as my best bet, while tailing Bradley Beal and Zaccharie Risacher in other ways.

Check out my Hawks vs. Suns prop picks for Jan. 9.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks

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Best Bet: Durant over 26.5 points (-108)

Durant’s career scoring average is 27.3 PPG. Amazingly, he’s putting up 27.4 PPG right now in Year 17.

The four-time scoring champ can get a bucket from anywhere, which makes him a great guy to bet on in numerous matchups.

Facing a team that struggles to defend the 3-point line? Durant is shooting 40.8% from deep this year on 5.7 attempts.

Facing a team that takes too many fouls? Durant has an 84.2% free throw rate on 6.8 attempts.

Of these two camps, Atlanta falls into the former. The Hawks allow the most attempted 3s per game (40.5) and the highest opponent 3PT% (38.4).

In a more general sense, the Hawks allow the third-most points per game (119.8).

This is clearly a plus matchup, and Durant’s points prop asks less of him than his season average. That’s enough to sell me.

In his past five matchups against the Hawks (since April 2022), Durant has averaged 33.8 points.

Key stat: Durant has gone over 26.5 points in 13 of 25 games this season.

Quick pick

Beal over 3.5 assists (+115): Beal has come off the bench for the Suns in back-to-back games, but he still played 30-plus minutes in both matchups. In other words, it’s been more of a realignment than a demotion.

As a shooting guard, Beal doesn’t tend to rack up assists, but this line isn’t asking too much of him. He’s gone over 3.5 assists in eight of his past 14 games — including both as Phoenix’s sixth man.

Also, Atlanta is a great matchup for anyone looking to pass the rock:

3rd-most assists allowed overall (28.7)
4th-most assists allowed to SGs (5.6), per Betting Pros

Beal had 19 assists in two matchups against the Hawks last winter, easily cashing this bet in both games.

Risacher over 4.5 rebounds (-112): Risacher has cashed this bet in four of his past seven games while averaging 4.7 RPG in that span.

He also has three-plus rebounds in each of his past seven games, which is easily his most consistent production on the glass all year.

Some folks may have expected more from last June’s No. 1 overall pick, but not everyone can step in and play like Victor Wembanyama.

Phoenix allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing small forwards (8.3), so this should be a nice opportunity for Risacher to stay active in that regard.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET 01/09/2024.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks Jan. 9: Bet on Durant, Risacher to produce

The struggling Phoenix Suns host the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night in the desert.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix, which is 2-8 in its past 10 games, will need to continue to lean on Kevin Durant in order to turn things around. I’m taking the over on Durant’s points prop as my best bet, while tailing Bradley Beal and Zaccharie Risacher in other ways.

Check out my Hawks vs. Suns prop picks for Jan. 9.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks

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Best Bet: Durant over 26.5 points (-114)