A quarterback/tight end tandem in the AFC makes up my NFL wild-card prop picks for this weekend’s slate.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has never seen an open patch of turf he didn’t want to run through, and I think the over on his rushing yards prop is a great play for Sunday. I’m also backing Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop.
Check out my NFL prop picks for the 2025 wild-card action.
NFL prop picks
Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.
Best bet: Allen over 41.5 rushing yards (-118)
Welcome back to the playoff Josh Allen experience.
Allen can turn into a two-legged battering ram in any game against any opponent.
But he’s demonstrated a greater willingness to do that when the postseason begins.
| Situation | Rush attempts/game | Rush yards/game |
| Regular season (111 GP) | 6.8 | 37.3 |
| Playoffs (10 GP) | 8.3 | 56.3 |
Allen tends to obliterate this yardage number in the postseason, not just clear it. He has 65-plus rush yards in five of his past seven playoff games.
The Denver Broncos were one of the toughest teams to run against this year. Their defence ranked No. 2 in rush success rate and No. 4 in EPA per rush, according to rbsdm.com.
But in a way, that makes me feel even better about this pick.
There’s a chance that James Cook and the Bills’ traditional run game can’t get going. Allen will likely have some scripted runs, too, but he’s also an expert at creating with his legs in off-schedule plays.
Look for Allen to show up as a strong playoff runner like usual.
Key stat: In two playoff games last year (both at home), Allen rushed 20 times for 146 yards and three TDs. He cashed this prop both times.
Quick pick
Likely over 26.5 receiving yards (-120): The Baltimore Ravens won’t have their top receiving target, Zay Flowers, available on Saturday night.
That should open doors for some other options, and I think Likely is a guy to key in on.
Baltimore loves using its tight ends as receivers, evidenced by the fact that Mark Andrews and Likely ranked third and fourth on the team, respectively, in both targets and yards this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a tight-end-friendly matchup, too, as they’ve allowed 6.2 catches per game to opposing TEs (tied for second-most in the NFL).
Likely has 104 yards through two games against Pittsburgh this year and has cashed this bet in three straight head-to-head meetings.
NFL picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 01/10/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.