The Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday night with a national championship berth at stake.
The pregame narrative: In the Orange Bowl, the Irish are slight favourites and I’m backing them straight up. I don’t expect a ton of offence in a game between two stellar defensive units, but Riley Leonard has my attention as an anytime TD scorer.
Check out my Notre Dame vs. Penn State best bets for the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State best bets
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Best Bet: Under 45.5 points (-110)
The game total has been trimmed by a point and a half since the line opened, but I still think there’s value with the under in this matchup.
Notre Dame and Penn State both possess top-10 scoring defences, collectively allowing an average of 29.4 points per game.
Their offences are strong, too, but it’s worth noting that both defences are best at stopping the opposing team’s main offensive strength.
- Notre Dame ranks ninth offensively in EPA per rush, according to gameonpaper.com. But Penn State’s defence ranks sixth in EPA per rush.
- Penn State ranks sixth offensively in EPA per pass. But Notre Dame’s defence ranks first in EPA per pass.
Notre Dame has rushed for 190-plus yards in 10 of 14 games, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Penn State, meanwhile, hasn’t allowed a single team to rush for 190-plus yards all season.
On the flip side, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar completed 67.4% of his passes this year (12th in FBS). But Notre Dame has allowed the lowest completion rate in the country (50.6%).
These are strength-on-strength showdowns, and I’m backing the defences to win more often than not.
Key stat: Unders are 2-0 for both Notre Dame and Penn State so far in the College Football Playoff.
Quick picks
Notre Dame moneyline (-132): Notre Dame has the worst defeat of any CFP team, losing at home against unranked Northern Illinois. But that was four months ago.
Since then, the Irish are on a 12-game win streak, and they’ve won 11 of those games by a double-digit margin. That includes a convincing 23-10 win over Georgia in the CFP quarterfinal.
Penn State’s season looks great on paper … but where are its chest-thumping wins?
The Nittany Lions are 0-2 straight up and ATS in their only two games as underdogs this season (vs. Ohio State, vs. Oregon).
Yes, Penn State cruised through its first two CFP games. But those came in a home game against a warm-weather school playing out of its element (SMU) and a Cinderella-turned-auto-bye school that was undeserving of its seed (Boise State).
To me, Notre Dame fits into the same talent pool as Ohio State and Oregon. And Penn State hasn’t beaten a team of that calibre yet.
Leonard anytime TD (-121): Leonard has almost as many touchdowns rushing (15) as he does passing (18) this season. That’s a testament to his willingness to turn into a human battering ram.
He’s not quite Josh Allen-sized, but Leonard is similarly shifty — and fearless. He’s averaging 10.6 carries this season to go with 5.6 yards per rush.
Leonard didn’t score in the CFP quarterfinal win over Georgia, but he did handle a season-high 14 carries. And he’s cashed this bet in 10 of 14 games on the season.
Picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 01/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.