Jordan Horrobin

In the final NBA matchup of the night, the Phoenix Suns host the Charlotte Hornets.

The pregame narrative: Sunday’s game in the desert has rock fight potential, as both teams have been hitting unders at a high clip lately. Along with an alt total, this +285 SGP features prop bets on Devin Booker and Brandon Miller.

Check out my Hornets vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 12.

Hornets vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Under 230.5 points + Booker 6+ assists + Miller over 17.5 points (+285)

Under 230.5 points (-235): Charlotte’s combination of slow pace and inefficient offence has made it the most under-friendly team in the NBA.

• 29th in offensive rating
• 22nd in possessions per game
• Unders are 23-12-0

Phoenix also plays slow (23rd in possessions/game) and is on an ironclad run of unders lately. Since Dec. 15, unders are 10-1-2 in Suns games.

That includes the matchup between these teams last Tuesday, which finished with 219 total points.

Each of the Hornets’ past eight games has finished with 223 total points or fewer. This looks like a safe number to me.

SGP legs

Booker 6+ assists (-360): Booker exploded for 39 points when he faced the Hornets last week, but that wasn’t his only statistical highlight. The standout guard added 10 assists, too.

Though he’s listed as a shooting guard, Booker is actually the Suns’ primary passer. He averages 6.9 assists per game, as well as 12.0 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to shots).

Over his past 11 games, Booker has cashed this bet nine times while averaging 7.9 APG.

Miller over 17.5 points (-132): This is the riskiest leg of the ticket — made even riskier by the alt under — but it really doesn’t feel like much of an ask for Miller.

• He’s averaging 21.2 PPG on the season.

• Over his past 16 games, Miller has cashed this bet 14 times.

• Miller averages 18.3 FGA and 11.0 3PA.

One of Miller’s toughest nights of the season came against the Suns, as he shot just 5-of-16 from the floor and finished with 13 points.

Given that the Suns aren’t known as a particularly strong defensive team (22nd in defensive rating), I’m comfortable chalking that up to a blip on the radar.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 01/12/24.

Paolo Banchero looked fantastic in his return to the court two days ago, and now he’s headlining my Sunday NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I like Banchero to clear his points/rebounds/assists prop in a home date against the Philadelphia 76ers. In the same 6 p.m. ET window, I’m backing Jarrett Allen and Trey Murphy to produce.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 12.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Banchero 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-121)

After missing 34 games with an oblique injury, Banchero knocked the rust off immediately on Friday night in a triumphant return.

In just 26 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks, Banchero’s stat line suggested he’d hardly skipped a beat:

• 34 points
• 7 rebounds
• 3 assists
• 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%)
• 5-of-8 threes (62.5%)

The Bucks are a top-10 squad in terms of defensive rating. Tonight’s opponents, the 76ers, are a middling 16th in that category.

One risk for Banchero’s overall production is that the Magic and Sixers are two of the three slowest teams in the NBA. A measly 206-point projected total for tonight’s matchup reflects that.

But given how efficient Banchero was in his return — nearly clearing this PRA line with just his point total — he hopefully won’t need an excessive volume of opportunities to put up stats.

What really makes this a compelling pick is that Franz Wagner is still out for the Magic. Without his co-star, Banchero tends to run wild.

In 12 career games without Wagner, Banchero has averaged 24.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists (36.9 PRA).

Key stat: Banchero has the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA (33.1%), ahead of top-notch scorers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama.

Quick picks

Murphy over 17.5 points (-114): The New Orleans Pelicans are primarily composed of good-not-great players, and sometimes it’s difficult to discern which one(s) will shine on any given night.

But Murphy looks like that guy right now, and the Pelicans should continue to feed him the ball.

Over his past 12 games, Murphy is averaging 23.7 points. He’s cashed this bet 10 times.

No one in New Orleans attempts more 3s than Murphy (8.6/game), and he’ll likely need to fire away on Sunday against the Boston Celtics. Boston attempts 49.5 threes per game, easily pacing the league.

Murphy has missed the past three games with an ankle sprain but is listed as available for Sunday.

Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-107): Like Murphy, Allen is a player who’s hot right now that I’m looking to ride with.

The Cleveland Cavaliers centre has averaged 19.1 points and 11.3 rebounds (30.4 PR) over his past seven games, cashing this bet five times.

What’s been particularly encouraging in that span is Allen’s high floor as a rebounder. The 6-foot-11 centre has nine-plus rebounds in seven consecutive games.

Tonight’s opponents, the Indiana Pacers, allow the ninth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.7), per Betting Pros. If Allen hovers around the double-digit mark for rebounds, he should do enough as a scorer to cash this.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/12/2025.

In Saturday’s NBA nightcap, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: Portland is stacking plenty of losses this season, but its ATS record is relatively strong. I like the Blazers to cover an alt spread, and I’m backing Anfernee Simons alongside Tyler Herro in the prop market.

Check out my Heat vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.

Heat vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Trail Blazers +8.5 + Simons over 4.5 assists + Herro over 22.5 points (+290)

Trail Blazers +8.5 (-240): Portland is closer to the top of the draft lottery than it is to a play-in spot, but the team hasn’t totally quit on what looks like a lost season.

The Trail Blazers have rattled off four ATS victories in a row — all as underdogs — and have covered this number in seven of their past eight.

Miami earned a surprising road win over the Golden State Warriors this past Tuesday, but the team is still in a slump overall.

In their past nine games, the Heat have three outright losses as favourites, and they’ve only covered this number twice.

Oh, and Miami is 1-6 ATS as a road favourite this year. Portland, meanwhile, is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Simons over 4.5 assists (-165): Simons takes more shots and scores more points for Portland than anyone else. But he’s also the team’s leading passer.

His 5.1 assists per game isn’t a staggering total, but it means he’s good for this over more often than not.

• Simons has cashed this bet in 21/34 games (61.8%).

• He has 5+ assists in 15/19 games since Nov. 27.

Simons hasn’t faced the Heat yet this season, but tonight’s matchup should be a good one for him. Miami allows the eighth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.5/game), according to Betting Pros.

Herro over 22.5 points (-130): With or without Jimmy Butler, Herro has been the Heat’s primary scoring option this year. The sixth-year guard seems to have found a new ceiling as a scorer.

• After three straight seasons averaging between 20.0 and 21.0 PPG, Herro is up to a career-high 23.6 PPG this year.

• Herro is on track for career-best marks in FG%, eFG%, 3PT%, 3PA and FTA.

Over his past 15 games, Herro has cashed this bet nine times. And in 14 games without Butler, he’s averaging 23.2 PPG.

Portland allows the third-most points to opposing point guards (26.2/game).

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 01/11/2025

There are only four NBA games on Saturday, and my focus is on the two late ones.

The pregame narrative: In Minnesota, I like Anthony Edwards to continue firing at will from the 3-point line — but Zach Edey looks like a fade. And in Portland, look for visiting forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. to continue to produce from a starting role.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 11.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Jaquez over 18.5 points/assists (-113)

The Miami Heat are beginning to see what life is like without Jimmy Butler, and for an inexperienced player like Jaquez, the future is now.

The 2023 first-round draftee has stepped back into a starting role in the past three games and handled himself quite well:

• Jan. 6 (at Kings): 16 points, 10 assists
• Jan. 7 (at Warriors): 18 points, 1 assist
• Jan. 9 (at Jazz): 20 points, 7 assists

In that span, Jaquez is shooting 55.3% from the floor and 40.0% from 3-point range (on 3.3 attempts/game).

Though he’s only averaging 9.5 points and 2.7 assists (12.2 PA) on the season, it’s not fair to use those numbers as a yardstick for Jaquez tonight. He sees more opportunities as a starter, naturally, and that puts this prop line within his range.

In seven starts this year, Jaquez has averaged 15.0 points and 3.7 assists (18.7 PA).

The Portland Trail Blazers should be a good matchup for Jaquez to stay hot. Portland ranks 26th in defensive rating and allows the fourth-highest opponent field goal percentage (47.7%).

Also, opposing small forwards average 4.4 assists against Portland (fourth-most in the NBA), per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Jaquez has gone over 18.5 points/assists in five of seven starts this year.

Quick picks

Edey under 15.5 points/rebounds (-113): After missing a couple of games due to migraine issues, Zach Edey has yet to bounce back in the box score.

Tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves likely won’t make life any easier on him.

Minnesota is a lock-down defensive squad, holding opponents to the fourth-fewest points and eighth-fewest rebounds per game.

The T-Wolves have defended the paint particularly well in recent games, too. Their tied for the third-fewest opponent points in the paint over their past 15 games.

Edey has gone under this total in three of four games since his return, averaging 5.5 points and 4.8 rebounds. The 7-foot-4 Canadian is still favoured to win Rookie of the Year, but that doesn’t mean he’s in for a big night on Saturday.

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-130): Edwards is a volume shooter from beyond the arc, and the Memphis Grizzlies seem to encourage that sort of behaviour.

Memphis’ opponents attempt 39.6 threes per game, which is the fourth-most in the NBA. That has only equated to a 34.3% shooting percentage, but I still think this makes sense as a volume play.

• Edwards has attempted 11+ threes in four straight games, cashing this bet each time.

• He’s averaging 4.3 threes on a career-high 10.0 attempts this year.

Last game, Edwards went 4-of-11 from deep against the Orlando Magic, who allow a league-low 30.9 attempted threes per game.

Edwards might just be matchup-proof.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Friday night’s NBA action wraps up in the Mile High City, where the Denver Nuggets host a shorthanded Brooklyn Nets squad.

The pregame narrative: Brooklyn just lost three straight home games by 14-plus points, so this one could get ugly. But I still like Ben Simmons and Nic Claxton to produce for the visitors, while Nikola Jokic has been money from beyond the arc all season.

Check out my Nets vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 10.

Nets vs. Nuggets predictions

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Parlay: Jokic 2+ threes + Simmons 8+ assists + Claxton 6+ rebounds (+250)

Jokic 2+ threes (-155): Whenever I’m researching a same-game parlay involving the Nuggets, I have to at least check the price on this prop.

More often than not, it comes out looking like a value to me.

• Jokic has seriously upped his 3-point volume this year, averaging 4.8 attempts per game (his career average is 3.0).
  
• Has the added volume hurt his efficiency? No, actually, it’s had the opposite effect. Jokic is shooting a league-best 47.3% from deep (his career average is 35.9%).
  
• The three-time MVP has 2+ threes in 22/31 games this season (71.0%).

Jokic has one game this year where he didn’t attempt a 3-pointer, and that was on Oct. 29 against the Nets.

In fairness, Brooklyn is a relatively stingy squad in this facet, yielding the third-fewest attempted 3s per game (36.1).

Then again, the Nets also allow the third-highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.7%).

Jokic has been too effective this year to go silent beyond the arc again. He’s listed as questionable with an illness, but if he plays, he should cash this bet.

SGP legs

Simmons 8+ assists (-134): This pick asks Simmons to outperform his season assists average (6.9), but Denver provides a plus matchup that should give him a good chance.

The Nuggets allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (10.3/game), per Betting Pros, as well as the most assists overall (29.5/game).

Denver plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA, which is a primary driver of those data points. More possessions lead to more opportunities for assists.

As stated, this line requires an above-average output from Simmons. But he’s been solid against this line recently.

In his past 13 games, Simmons has averaged 7.3 APG and hit this milestone eight times.

Claxton 6+ rebounds (-420): Claxton posted a season-high 12 rebounds against the Nuggets back in October, and that’s when he was coming off the bench.

The 6-foot-11 centre has enjoyed a starter’s role for the better part of two months, and he routinely hits this mark.

• 6+ rebounds in 22/31 games this season
• 7.4 RPG since Dec. 1

Maybe you’re asking yourself if it’s worth it to add a -420 leg to an SGP. In this case, the Claxton leg takes this ticket from +170 odds to +250, and that’s compelling enough for me.

Since March 2023, Claxton has hit this mark in all five games against the Nuggets, averaging 10.2 rebounds.

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 01/10/2025