In Saturday’s NBA nightcap, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Miami Heat.
The pregame narrative: Portland is stacking plenty of losses this season, but its ATS record is relatively strong. I like the Blazers to cover an alt spread, and I’m backing Anfernee Simons alongside Tyler Herro in the prop market.
Check out my Heat vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.
Heat vs. Trail Blazers predictions
Go to full NBA betting markets
Parlay: Trail Blazers +8.5 + Simons over 4.5 assists + Herro over 22.5 points (+290)
Trail Blazers +8.5 (-240): Portland is closer to the top of the draft lottery than it is to a play-in spot, but the team hasn’t totally quit on what looks like a lost season.
The Trail Blazers have rattled off four ATS victories in a row — all as underdogs — and have covered this number in seven of their past eight.
Miami earned a surprising road win over the Golden State Warriors this past Tuesday, but the team is still in a slump overall.
In their past nine games, the Heat have three outright losses as favourites, and they’ve only covered this number twice.
Oh, and Miami is 1-6 ATS as a road favourite this year. Portland, meanwhile, is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, per Team Rankings.
SGP legs
Simons over 4.5 assists (-165): Simons takes more shots and scores more points for Portland than anyone else. But he’s also the team’s leading passer.
His 5.1 assists per game isn’t a staggering total, but it means he’s good for this over more often than not.
- Simons has cashed this bet in 21/34 games (61.8%).
- He has 5+ assists in 15/19 games since Nov. 27.
Simons hasn’t faced the Heat yet this season, but tonight’s matchup should be a good one for him. Miami allows the eighth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.5/game), according to Betting Pros.
Herro over 22.5 points (-130): With or without Jimmy Butler, Herro has been the Heat’s primary scoring option this year. The sixth-year guard seems to have found a new ceiling as a scorer.
- After three straight seasons averaging between 20.0 and 21.0 PPG, Herro is up to a career-high 23.6 PPG this year.
- Herro is on track for career-best marks in FG%, eFG%, 3PT%, 3PA and FTA.
Over his past 15 games, Herro has cashed this bet nine times. And in 14 games without Butler, he’s averaging 23.2 PPG.
Portland allows the third-most points to opposing point guards (26.2/game).
Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 01/11/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.