Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

NFL divisional round parlay picks: Fade Lamar Jackson, bet on Commanders to cover alt spread

There are four NFL divisional round games this weekend, and this +310 parlay has picks from three of them.

The pregame narrative: I don’t expect the Washington Commanders to upset the top-seeded Detroit Lions, but I do think it’ll be a relatively tight matchup. I’m also fading Lamar Jackson in Buffalo and calling on Saquon Barkley to find the end zone.

Check out my NFL parlay picks for the 2025 divisional round action.

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Parlay: Commanders +14.5 + Barkley anytime TD + Jackson under 221.5 passing yards (+310)

Commanders +14.5 (-209): Two weeks ago, the Lions’ lasting impression on a franchise-best regular season was a 22-point win over the Minnesota Vikings. That outcome might dissuade you from betting against Detroit in any form or fashion.

I don’t view this as a fade of Detroit, though. I’m just buying some extra points with the expectation that Washington can keep things interesting like it has all year.

Jayden Daniels’ NFL debut didn’t go according to plan. But look at how things have panned out from Week 2 onward:

13-4 SU
11-5-1 ATS
4-1-1 ATS as underdogs

Over their past 17 games, all four of the Commanders’ losses have come by one score. They’ve had plenty of white-knuckle wins, but you could argue that that’s a good thing, too. The team doesn’t quit.

The Lions should absolutely win this game, but I don’t expect it to be a laugher. Especially given how Daniels can affect the game with his legs.

Detroit allowed the most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks this season (6.2) and the fourth-most QB rush yards (454).

Other parlay picks

Barkley anytime TD (-200): Barkley had a big game in the wild-card round, and he probably could’ve capped it with a massive touchdown run in the final minutes.

But the game was out of reach, so he opted to slide instead of going for the house call.

Some bettors may have been punching the air, but that play won’t discourage me from going back to Barkley in an A-plus matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

L.A.’s defence ranked 26th in yards per rush (4.6) this year, and Barkley had quite a hand in that.

Back in Week 12, the talented tailback rushed for 255 yards and two TDs against the Rams. As if that wasn’t enough, he added four catches for 47 yards.

Over his past 12 games, Barkley has scored 10 TDs while averaging 3.9 red zone carries. This is a fantastic spot for him to do damage.

Jackson under 221.5 passing yards (-118): In late September, Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens went into Buffalo and emerged with a 35-10 victory.

Despite Baltimore’s 35-point outburst, Jackson wasn’t needed in a major way as a passer. He threw for just 156 yards on 18 attempts.

Less is often more for Jackson, whose running ability is at least as important to the Ravens’ offensive scheme. And then there’s Derrick Henry, the personification of a bowling ball and a lightning bolt put together.

What I’m saying is that the Ravens don’t need tons of passing yards from Jackson in order to put up points.

Jackson has gone under 219.5 passing yards in 6/8 games since Week 11.

In that span, he’s averaging 209.8 yards.

He’s also gone under 200 passing yards in 5/7 playoff starts (with just 175 yards in the wild-card round vs. Pittsburgh).

As for the Bills, 7/9 opposing quarterbacks have gone under 219.5 yards this year in Buffalo.

Zay Flowers’ availability — or lack thereof — makes a difference, too. Baltimore’s leading receiver missed the wild-card game with a knee injury, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be back for Sunday.

NFL picks made at 1:50 p.m. on 01/15/24.

NFL divisional round parlay picks: Fade Lamar Jackson, bet on Commanders to cover alt spread

There are four NFL divisional round games this weekend, and this +342 parlay has picks from three of them.

The pregame narrative: I don’t expect the Washington Commanders to upset the top-seeded Detroit Lions, but I do think it’ll be a relatively tight matchup. I’m also fading Lamar Jackson in Buffalo and calling on Saquon Barkley to find the end zone.

Check out my NFL parlay picks for the 2025 divisional round action.

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Parlay: Commanders +14.5 + Barkley anytime TD + Jackson under 219.5 passing yards (+342)

Commanders +14.5 (-240): Two weeks ago, the Lions’ lasting impression on a franchise-best regular season was a 22-point win over the Minnesota Vikings. That outcome might dissuade you from betting against Detroit in any form or fashion.

I don’t view this as a fade of Detroit, though. I’m just buying some extra points with the expectation that Washington can keep things interesting like it has all year.

Jayden Daniels’ NFL debut didn’t go according to plan. But look at how things have panned out from Week 2 onward:

13-4 SU
11-5-1 ATS
4-1-1 ATS as underdogs

Over their past 17 games, all four of the Commanders’ losses have come by one score. They’ve had plenty of white-knuckle wins, but you could argue that that’s a good thing, too. The team doesn’t quit.

The Lions should absolutely win this game, but I don’t expect it to be a laugher. Especially given how Daniels can affect the game with his legs.

Detroit allowed the most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks this season (6.2) and the fourth-most QB rush yards (454).

Other parlay picks

Barkley anytime TD (-175): Barkley had a big game in the wild-card round, and he probably could’ve capped it with a massive touchdown run in the final minutes.

But the game was out of reach, so he opted to slide instead of going for the house call.

Some bettors may have been punching the air, but that play won’t discourage me from going back to Barkley in an A-plus matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

L.A.’s defence ranked 26th in yards per rush (4.6) this year, and Barkley had quite a hand in that.

Back in Week 12, the talented tailback rushed for 255 yards and two TDs against the Rams. As if that wasn’t enough, he added four catches for 47 yards.

Over his past 12 games, Barkley has scored 10 TDs while averaging 3.9 red zone carries. This is a fantastic spot for him to do damage.

Jackson under 219.5 passing yards (-104): In late September, Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens went into Buffalo and emerged with a 35-10 victory.

Despite Baltimore’s 35-point outburst, Jackson wasn’t needed in a major way as a passer. He threw for just 156 yards on 18 attempts.

Less is often more for Jackson, whose running ability is at least as important to the Ravens’ offensive scheme. And then there’s Derrick Henry, the personification of a bowling ball and a lightning bolt put together.

What I’m saying is that the Ravens don’t need tons of passing yards from Jackson in order to put up points.

Jackson has gone under 219.5 passing yards in 6/8 games since Week 11.

In that span, he’s averaging 209.8 yards.

He’s also gone under 200 passing yards in 5/7 playoff starts (with just 175 yards in the wild-card round vs. Pittsburgh).

As for the Bills, 7/9 opposing quarterbacks have gone under 219.5 yards this year in Buffalo.

Zay Flowers’ availability — or lack thereof — makes a difference, too. Baltimore’s leading receiver missed the wild-card game with a knee injury, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be back for Sunday.

NFL picks made at 11:48 a.m. on 01/15/24.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 15: Bet on big nights for Curry, Miller and Banchero

Steph Curry and Paolo Banchero headline my NBA prop bets for Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Curry is a do-it-all star for the Golden State Warriors, and I like him to put up a solid rebounds/assists total tonight in Minnesota. But my best bet is on Brandon Miller, who I expect to shoot his way out of a small rough patch.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 15.

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Best bet: Brandon Miller 20+ points (-110)

I’d like to see Miller break out of a mini-slump, and that should happen at some point based on his shot volume.

In the past five games, the second-year small forward has struggled to fill the net:

17.2 PPG
38.2 FG%
Under 19.5 points in 4/5 games

But in that span, he’s still attempted 15.2 shots per game — including 9.8 attempts from 3-point range. When a guy shoots that much, a 20-point night is never out of reach.

Miller was a machine against that number just before this little skid. He had a 12-game stretch in which he cashed this bet every time, averaging 27.0 points on 21.8 FGA.

So, yes, the shot attempts are down a bit in his more recent games. But not to the point where he can’t hit this mark.

Tonight, Miller and the Charlotte Hornets face the Utah Jazz. Utah allows the fifth-most points and the third-most attempted 3s in the league.

If Miller keeps firing, I like his chances of turning things around — especially in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Utah allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (23.4), per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Banchero 25+ points (-112): I wish I could ask Banchero what happened on Sunday. In a narrow win over the Philadelphia 76ers, he only attempted eight shots.

Banchero finished with 20 points thanks to some efficient shooting (5-of-8 from the floor, 9-of-11 from the free throw line), but that only adds to my puzzlement.

Why not keep shooting when it’s going well?

The third-year power forward was only in his second game back from an oblique injury, but that hadn’t slowed him down in this previous matchup.

Against a solid Milwaukee Bucks defence, Banchero had 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting (in just 27 minutes) on Jan. 10.

Banchero faces Milwaukee again tonight. Hopefully he starts to see a bit of a minutes uptick, but either way, I know he’s capable of cashing.

Curry over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-112): At 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, Curry isn’t someone you’d expect to pull down a bunch of rebounds. But he’s been crushing it on the glass lately.

6+ rebounds in 6/7 games since Dec. 28.
5.1 RPG on the year

I don’t expect a huge rebounding total for Curry against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that’s where his passing prowess comes in. Curry is averaging 6.1 assists this year, meaning he’s averaging 11.2 RA collectively.

In 31 games, Curry has cashed this bet 20 times (64.5%). That includes two of three meetings against the T-Wolves last month.

Draymond Green, who’s second on the Warriors in both rebounds and assists, is questionable due to an illness and a back injury. If he’s out, that could mean more opportunities for Curry.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 15: Bet on big nights for Curry, Miller and Banchero

Steph Curry and Paolo Banchero headline my NBA prop bets for Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Curry is a do-it-all star for the Golden State Warriors, and I like him to put up a solid rebounds/assists total tonight in Minnesota. But my best bet is on Brandon Miller, who I expect to shoot his way out of a small rough patch.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 15.

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Best bet: Brandon Miller 20+ points (-109)

I’d like to see Miller break out of a mini-slump, and that should happen at some point based on his shot volume.

In the past five games, the second-year small forward has struggled to fill the net:

17.2 PPG
38.2 FG%
Under 19.5 points in 4/5 games

But in that span, he’s still attempted 15.2 shots per game — including 9.8 attempts from 3-point range. When a guy shoots that much, a 20-point night is never out of reach.

Miller was a machine against that number just before this little skid. He had a 12-game stretch in which he cashed this bet every time, averaging 27.0 points on 21.8 FGA.

So, yes, the shot attempts are down a bit in his more recent games. But not to the point where he can’t hit this mark.

Tonight, Miller and the Charlotte Hornets face the Utah Jazz. Utah allows the fifth-most points and the third-most attempted 3s in the league.

If Miller keeps firing, I like his chances of turning things around — especially in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Utah allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (23.4), per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Banchero 25+ points (-113): I wish I could ask Banchero what happened on Sunday. In a narrow win over the Philadelphia 76ers, he only attempted eight shots.

Banchero finished with 20 points thanks to some efficient shooting (5-of-8 from the floor, 9-of-11 from the free throw line), but that only adds to my puzzlement.

Why not keep shooting when it’s going well?

The third-year power forward was only in his second game back from an oblique injury, but that hadn’t slowed him down in this previous matchup.

Against a solid Milwaukee Bucks defence, Banchero had 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting (in just 27 minutes) on Jan. 10.

Banchero faces Milwaukee again tonight. Hopefully he starts to see a bit of a minutes uptick, but either way, I know he’s capable of cashing.

Curry over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-115): At 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, Curry isn’t someone you’d expect to pull down a bunch of rebounds. But he’s been crushing it on the glass lately.

6+ rebounds in 6/7 games since Dec. 28.
5.1 RPG on the year

I don’t expect a huge rebounding total for Curry against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that’s where his passing prowess comes in. Curry is averaging 6.1 assists this year, meaning he’s averaging 11.2 RA collectively.

In 31 games, Curry has cashed this bet 20 times (64.5%). That includes two of three meetings against the T-Wolves last month.

Draymond Green, who’s second on the Warriors in both rebounds and assists, is questionable due to an illness and a back injury. If he’s out, that could mean more opportunities for Curry.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.

Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Fade James Harden but bet on L.A. to win

The Los Angeles Clippers look to lean into their home-court advantage tonight against the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: L.A. has been one of the league’s strongest home squads, and I like the Clippers on an alt spread in this +475 SGP. Even so, I think James Harden is worth fading as a scorer while Bam Adebayo should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Heat vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers -3.5 + Harden under 20.5 points + Adebayo over 3.5 assists (+475)

Clippers -3.5 (-175): For the Clippers, getting a stadium all to themselves has been worth the wait.

In Year 1 at the Intuit Dome, the Clips are 12-6 straight up and ATS. They also have the NBA’s top ATS record as home favourites (7-2-0).

In each of its past five games as a home favourite, Los Angeles won by a double-digit margin. That includes victories over the Hawks and Warriors within the past three weeks.

Miami has won three games in a row amid a six-game West Coast swing, but I’m still not confident backing the Heat in a spot like this.

The Heat are 8-11 ATS as visitors this season, and they recently lost by 36 points at home against the lowly Jazz (Jan. 4).

SGP legs

Harden under 20.5 points (-120): Harden has cleared this point total more often than not this season, but that’s because of a bloated shot volume.

The 16-year vet is shooting a career-low 38.9% from the floor, and that dreadful inefficiency seems to finally be catching up.

Look at Harden’s numbers over his past eight games:

18.8 PPG
37.8 FG%
28.6 3PT%
Under 20.5 points in 5/8

Kawhi Leonard isn’t on the injury report, so he should be in tonight. If Leonard can get more involved — after only making his season debut on Jan. 4 — Harden should be disincentivized to shoot at will.

Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-130): In the right matchup, Adebayo should be cashing this bet with ease. He averages 4.6 assists per game, after all.

And as it turns out, the Clippers look like the type of matchup where Adebayo can take advantage.

Adebayo has 4+ assists in 3/5 games vs. LAC since 2022 (finishing with exactly three assists in one of the outliers).

This season, LAC has allowed the third-most assists to opposing centres (4.9/game), per Betting Pros.

Adebayo has gone over 3.5 assists in 15 of his past 24 games (62.5%), averaging 5.0 APG in that span. Miami doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 facilitator, and the veteran centre takes his turn.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/13/24.

Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Fade James Harden but bet on L.A. to win

The Los Angeles Clippers look to lean into their home-court advantage tonight against the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: L.A. has been one of the league’s strongest home squads, and I like the Clippers on an alt spread in this +430 SGP. Even so, I think James Harden is worth fading as a scorer while Bam Adebayo should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Heat vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers -3.5 + Harden under 20.5 points + Adebayo over 3.5 assists (+430)

Clippers -3.5 (-186): For the Clippers, getting a stadium all to themselves has been worth the wait.

In Year 1 at the Intuit Dome, the Clips are 12-6 straight up and ATS. They also have the NBA’s top ATS record as home favourites (7-2-0).

In each of its past five games as a home favourite, Los Angeles won by a double-digit margin. That includes victories over the Hawks and Warriors within the past three weeks.

Miami has won three games in a row amid a six-game West Coast swing, but I’m still not confident backing the Heat in a spot like this.

The Heat are 8-11 ATS as visitors this season, and they recently lost by 36 points at home against the lowly Jazz (Jan. 4).

SGP legs

Harden under 20.5 points (-120): Harden has cleared this point total more often than not this season, but that’s because of a bloated shot volume.

The 16-year vet is shooting a career-low 38.9% from the floor, and that dreadful inefficiency seems to finally be catching up.

Look at Harden’s numbers over his past eight games:

18.8 PPG
37.8 FG%
28.6 3PT%
Under 20.5 points in 5/8

Kawhi Leonard isn’t on the injury report, so he should be in tonight. If Leonard can get more involved — after only making his season debut on Jan. 4 — Harden should be disincentivized to shoot at will.

Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-175): In the right matchup, Adebayo should be cashing this bet with ease. He averages 4.6 assists per game, after all.

And as it turns out, the Clippers look like the type of matchup where Adebayo can take advantage.

Adebayo has 4+ assists in 3/5 games vs. LAC since 2022 (finishing with exactly three assists in one of the outliers).

This season, LAC has allowed the third-most assists to opposing centres (4.9/game), per Betting Pros.

Adebayo has gone over 3.5 assists in 15 of his past 24 games (62.5%), averaging 5.0 APG in that span. Miami doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 facilitator, and the veteran centre takes his turn.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/13/24.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 13: Bet on Randle, fade Ja Morant on Monday night

I have two prop bets — an over and an under pick — for tonight’s NBA action.

The pregame narrative: Ja Morant faces a tough matchup he has struggled in, while Julius Randle should take advantage of the downtrodden Washington Wizards.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 13.

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Best bet: Morant under 6.5 assists (-150)

Morant recently missed time with a shoulder injury, but that didn’t prevent him from firing at will against the Houston Rockets on Thursday.

Coming out of a five-game absence, Morant scored 27 points against Houston on 9-of-22 shooting. He only had three assists, which was his second-lowest total of the season.

Morant’s lowest assist total of the season? That came on Oct. 25, when he had two helpers … against the Rockets.

Given that Morant averages 7.5 assists per game, taking this under with extra juice is typically ill-advised. But Monday’s matchup suggests otherwise.

Houston allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros, as well as the second-fewest assists overall.

Defensive acumen has been the primary driver of Houston’s stellar season. The Rockets make life difficult on their opponents — especially in the backcourt — and I think Morant will struggle again tonight.

Key stat: Morant has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past seven games, which includes a matchup against the Rockets.

Quick pick

Randle over 6.5 rebounds (-150): This pick asks for Randle to at least land on his season average (7.0 RPG), and it’s a reasonable play in my view.

Randle and the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing a beaten-down Wizards squad that has lost five of its past six games by 12 or more points. Things are bleak in DC.

The Wizards, who got trounced at home last night, allow the most rebounds per game in the NBA. Positionally, they also allow the most to power forwards.

Randle has cashed this bet in seven of his past 11 games, averaging 7.8 RPG in that span.

Picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 13: Fade Austin Reaves and Ja Morant on Monday night

Anyone else in a Monday mood? Two of my three NBA prop bets for tonight’s action are fades.

The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves and Ja Morant both face tough matchups that they’ve struggled in before, while Julius Randle should take advantage of the downtrodden Washington Wizards.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 13.

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Best bet: Morant under 6.5 assists (-136)

Morant recently missed time with a shoulder injury, but that didn’t prevent him from firing at will against the Houston Rockets on Thursday.

Coming out of a five-game absence, Morant scored 27 points against Houston on 9-of-22 shooting. He only had three assists, which was his second-lowest total of the season.

Morant’s lowest assist total of the season? That came on Oct. 25, when he had two helpers … against the Rockets.

Given that Morant averages 7.5 assists per game, taking this under with extra juice is typically ill-advised. But Monday’s matchup suggests otherwise.

Houston allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros, as well as the second-fewest assists overall.

Defensive acumen has been the primary driver of Houston’s stellar season. The Rockets make life difficult on their opponents — especially in the backcourt — and I think Morant will struggle again tonight.

Key stat: Morant has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past seven games, which includes a matchup against the Rockets.

Quick picks

Randle 8+ rebounds (+117): This pick asks for a full rebound more than Randle’s season average (7.0 RPG), but it’s a reasonable plus-money play in my view.

Randle and the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing a beaten-down Wizards squad that has lost five of its past six games by 12 or more points. Things are bleak in DC.

The Wizards, who got trounced at home last night, allow the most rebounds per game in the NBA. Positionally, they also allow the most to power forwards.

Randle has cashed this bet in six of his past 11 games, averaging 7.8 RPG in that span.

Reaves under 23.5 points/rebounds (-113): Reaves had a five-game stretch from Christmas Day through Jan. 3 where this line would’ve been far too low.

But outside of that heater, the under has been a more successful side this year.

Reaves is averaging 18.3 points and 4.3 rebounds (22.6 PR).

He’s gone under 23.5 PR in 21/31 games (67.7%).

In a matchup with Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama on the court, I’m not sure there’ll be many rebounds on the scrap heap for Reaves to grab.

The Wemby-era Spurs have already proven to be a tough matchup for Reaves, too.

In five games against Wemby’s Spurs, Reaves has hit this under four times while averaging 15.8 points and 4.2 rebounds.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Vikings vs. Rams wild-card prop picks: Tail Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop, fade Aaron Jones

The NFL wild-card weekend concludes on Monday Night Football in a showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams.

The pregame narrative: Matthew Stafford knows how to perform in the postseason, and I think he has a very attainable passing yards prop on Monday. I’m also banking on Tyler Higbee to make noise, while Aaron Jones is a logical fade candidate.

Check out my Vikings vs. Rams prop picks for the wild-card round.

Vikings vs. Rams prop picks

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Best bet: Stafford over 239.5 passing yards (-118)

As you might expect, the health of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes a world of difference for the Rams. When Stafford has his top two weapons, the offence is truly dangerous.

Minnesota saw that firsthand on Oct. 24, when Kupp and Nacua combined for 12 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown.

That was part of a banner day for Stafford: 25-for-34 passing (73.5%), 279 yards, 4 TDs.

The Vikings finished with the No. 5 scoring defence this year, but they allowed plenty of damage through the air. A key reason is because Minnesota’s opponents were often playing from behind, but I’ll take the yards any way they come.

Minnesota allowed 242.0 pass yards per game this year (28th in the NFL).

Stafford’s Rams are underdogs on Monday, and we have plenty of recent evidence that the 36-year-old can step up on the playoff stage. Over the past three postseasons, Stafford has 280-plus yards in four straight games.

Key stat: With Kupp and Nacua healthy, Stafford has thrown for 240-plus yards in seven of 11 games this season.

Quick picks

Higbee over 24.5 receiving yards (-112): Higbee suffered a devastating knee injury in last year’s wild-card game in Detroit. He spent most of this year on the sidelines, but I expect him to contribute on Monday.

Higbee slowly ramped up through Weeks 16-18, seeing his snap share increase each game (28%, 31%, 42%). He was the snap leader in the Rams’ tight end room in the season finale.

L.A.’s Week 18 matchup was meaningless for the team, but I’d argue it meant something for Higbee. He caught five of seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. That should give him some confidence entering the playoffs.

Last year, prior to his injury on his very first target of the postseason, Higbee had cashed this bet in five straight games.

Jones under 59.5 rushing yards (-120): The Rams’ run defence has struggled this year, but I’m not confident that Jones can take advantage.

L.A. allowed 4.6 yards per rush this season, which ranked 26th in the NFL. Jones had 58 yards on 19 carries (3.1 YPC) when they matched up in October.

In recent weeks, Jones hasn’t seen nearly as much action in the run game.

Jones has averaged 12.7 rushes and 56.7 yards over his past six games.

In the same span, he has seen a snap share of 30% or greater four times.

All three Vikings running backs (including Ty Chandler) popped up on the injury report this week. They all missed at least some practice time, though none are expected to be out on Monday.

There’s too much RB-by-committee risk for me to take the over on Jones.

Picks made at 3:53 p.m. ET on 01/12/2025.

Vikings vs. Rams wild-card prop picks: Tail Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop, fade Aaron Jones

The NFL wild-card weekend concludes on Monday Night Football in a showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams.

The pregame narrative: Matthew Stafford knows how to perform in the postseason, and I think he has a very attainable passing yards prop on Monday. I’m also banking on Tyler Higbee to make noise, while Aaron Jones is a logical fade candidate.

Check out my Vikings vs. Rams prop picks for the wild-card round.

Vikings vs. Rams prop picks

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Best bet: Stafford over 239.5 passing yards (-114)

As you might expect, the health of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes a world of difference for the Rams. When Stafford has his top two weapons, the offence is truly dangerous.

Minnesota saw that firsthand on Oct. 24, when Kupp and Nacua combined for 12 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown.

That was part of a banner day for Stafford: 25-for-34 passing (73.5%), 279 yards, 4 TDs.

The Vikings finished with the No. 5 scoring defence this year, but they allowed plenty of damage through the air. A key reason is because Minnesota’s opponents were often playing from behind, but I’ll take the yards any way they come.

Minnesota allowed 242.0 pass yards per game this year (28th in the NFL).

Stafford’s Rams are underdogs on Monday, and we have plenty of recent evidence that the 36-year-old can step up on the playoff stage. Over the past three postseasons, Stafford has 280-plus yards in four straight games.

Key stat: With Kupp and Nacua healthy, Stafford has thrown for 240-plus yards in seven of 11 games this season.

Quick picks

Higbee over 24.5 receiving yards (-103): Higbee suffered a devastating knee injury in last year’s wild-card game in Detroit. He spent most of this year on the sidelines, but I expect him to contribute on Monday.

Higbee slowly ramped up through Weeks 16-18, seeing his snap share increase each game (28%, 31%, 42%). He was the snap leader in the Rams’ tight end room in the season finale.

L.A.’s Week 18 matchup was meaningless for the team, but I’d argue it meant something for Higbee. He caught five of seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. That should give him some confidence entering the playoffs.

Last year, prior to his injury on his very first target of the postseason, Higbee had cashed this bet in five straight games.

Jones under 59.5 rushing yards (-114): The Rams’ run defence has struggled this year, but I’m not confident that Jones can take advantage.

L.A. allowed 4.6 yards per rush this season, which ranked 26th in the NFL. Jones had 58 yards on 19 carries (3.1 YPC) when they matched up in October.

In recent weeks, Jones hasn’t seen nearly as much action in the run game.

Jones has averaged 12.7 rushes and 56.7 yards over his past six games.

In the same span, he has seen a snap share of 30% or greater four times.

All three Vikings running backs (including Ty Chandler) popped up on the injury report this week. They all missed at least some practice time, though none are expected to be out on Monday.

There’s too much RB-by-committee risk for me to take the over on Jones.

Picks made at 1:53 p.m. ET on 01/12/2025.