The Los Angeles Clippers look to lean into their home-court advantage tonight against the Miami Heat.
The pregame narrative: L.A. has been one of the league’s strongest home squads, and I like the Clippers on an alt spread in this +475 SGP. Even so, I think James Harden is worth fading as a scorer while Bam Adebayo should hit the over on his assists prop.
Check out my Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.
Heat vs. Clippers predictions
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Parlay: Clippers -3.5 + Harden under 20.5 points + Adebayo over 3.5 assists (+475)
Clippers -3.5 (-175): For the Clippers, getting a stadium all to themselves has been worth the wait.
In Year 1 at the Intuit Dome, the Clips are 12-6 straight up and ATS. They also have the NBA’s top ATS record as home favourites (7-2-0).
In each of its past five games as a home favourite, Los Angeles won by a double-digit margin. That includes victories over the Hawks and Warriors within the past three weeks.
Miami has won three games in a row amid a six-game West Coast swing, but I’m still not confident backing the Heat in a spot like this.
The Heat are 8-11 ATS as visitors this season, and they recently lost by 36 points at home against the lowly Jazz (Jan. 4).
SGP legs
Harden under 20.5 points (-120): Harden has cleared this point total more often than not this season, but that’s because of a bloated shot volume.
The 16-year vet is shooting a career-low 38.9% from the floor, and that dreadful inefficiency seems to finally be catching up.
Look at Harden’s numbers over his past eight games:
- 18.8 PPG
- 37.8 FG%
- 28.6 3PT%
- Under 20.5 points in 5/8
Kawhi Leonard isn’t on the injury report, so he should be in tonight. If Leonard can get more involved — after only making his season debut on Jan. 4 — Harden should be disincentivized to shoot at will.
Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-130): In the right matchup, Adebayo should be cashing this bet with ease. He averages 4.6 assists per game, after all.
And as it turns out, the Clippers look like the type of matchup where Adebayo can take advantage.
- Adebayo has 4+ assists in 3/5 games vs. LAC since 2022 (finishing with exactly three assists in one of the outliers).
- This season, LAC has allowed the third-most assists to opposing centres (4.9/game), per Betting Pros.
Adebayo has gone over 3.5 assists in 15 of his past 24 games (62.5%), averaging 5.0 APG in that span. Miami doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 facilitator, and the veteran centre takes his turn.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/13/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.