Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Commanders vs. Lions divisional prop picks: Expect Jameson Williams to stay involved

Jameson Williams and Jayden Daniels are my two prop targets for Saturday night’s playoff matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: The price may not jump off the screen for Williams’ receptions prop, but he’s been such a steady presence for Detroit that I’m still looking to buy in. As for Daniels, there are a handful of reasons why he has value in the passing game.

Check out my Commanders vs. Lions prop picks for the divisional round.

Commanders vs. Lions prop picks

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Best bet: Williams over 3.5 receptions (-175)

There’s a lot of juice on this line, but I still think it’s playable as a straight wager based on Williams’ hefty involvement in the Lions’ game plan over the latter half of the season.

Splitting his season in half, look at how Williams’ statistical averages have climbed:

First 7 games: 5.0 targets, 2.9 catches, 59.1 yards

Past 8 games: 7.0 targets, 4.8 catches, 73.4 yards

Due to injuries and suspensions, it took Williams three seasons to blossom into the wideout Detroit needs him to be.

The 12th overall pick from the 2022 draft is a certified burner, but the Lions aren’t always looking to send him on a go route. Sometimes, it makes more sense to give him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and let him make a play.

Williams’ average depth of target is 11.3 yards this year (versus 15.7 last year and 16.7 as a rookie). Remember, this pick is about volume, not one splash play.

Fortunately for Detroit, Williams can do both. He’s a superb sidekick for Amon-Ra St. Brown, creating a completely different type of matchup issue.

In a game with a sky-high projected total (55.5 points), I like Williams to stay firmly involved for the home team.

Key stat: Williams went over 3.5 receptions in seven of his final eight games during the regular season, totalling 38 catches in that span.

Quick pick

Daniels over 238.5 passing yards (-118): In the wild-card round, Daniels became just the fourth rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win a road playoff start. And although I’m not partial to win stats for individual players, Daniels definitely did his part in the victory.

Last year’s No. 2 overall pick completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 13 times for 36 yards.

Daniels will face a more hostile environment in Detroit than he did in Tampa Bay, but at least he’s gotten some playoff debut jitters (if there even were any) out of the way.

In his past six full games (i.e., excluding his partial performance in Week 18), Daniels has averaged 243.3 passing yards.

Picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.

Commanders vs. Lions divisional prop picks: Expect Jameson Williams to stay involved

Jameson Williams and Jayden Daniels are my two prop targets for Saturday night’s playoff matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: The price may not jump off the screen for Williams’ receptions prop, but he’s been such a steady presence for Detroit that I’m still looking to buy in. As for Daniels, there are a handful of reasons why he has value to be the game’s leading passer.

Check out my Commanders vs. Lions prop picks for the divisional round.

Commanders vs. Lions prop picks

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Best bet: Williams over 3.5 receptions (-148)

There’s a lot of juice on this line, but I still think it’s playable as a straight wager based on Williams’ hefty involvement in the Lions’ game plan over the latter half of the season.

Splitting his season in half, look at how Williams’ statistical averages have climbed:

First 7 games: 5.0 targets, 2.9 catches, 59.1 yards

Past 8 games: 7.0 targets, 4.8 catches, 73.4 yards

Due to injuries and suspensions, it took Williams three seasons to blossom into the wideout Detroit needs him to be.

The 12th overall pick from the 2022 draft is a certified burner, but the Lions aren’t always looking to send him on a go route. Sometimes, it makes more sense to give him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and let him make a play.

Williams’ average depth of target is 11.3 yards this year (versus 15.7 last year and 16.7 as a rookie). Remember, this pick is about volume, not one splash play.

Fortunately for Detroit, Williams can do both. He’s a superb sidekick for Amon-Ra St. Brown, creating a completely different type of matchup issue.

In a game with a sky-high projected total (55.5 points), I like Williams to stay firmly involved for the home team.

Key stat: Williams went over 3.5 receptions in seven of his final eight games during the regular season, totalling 38 catches in that span.

Quick picks

Most passing yards — Daniels (+141): Based on their season averages, Jared Goff should be a clear favourite over Daniels in this market.

After all, Goff threw for 272.3 yards per game versus Daniels’ 209.9.

But there are a few reasons why I like the plus-money side with Daniels on Saturday night:

Washington is a +9.5 underdog, which means it’ll likely play from behind most of the game. A negative game script typically lends itself to a heavier dose of passing plays.

David Montgomery is back for the Lions, restoring the NFL’s best running back tandem. With two stellar tailbacks, Detroit can opt for a run-heavy offence if it so chooses.

And maybe Detroit should opt for a run-heavy offence, given that the Commanders’ defence ranks 28th in rush yards per attempt (4.8) and 27th in EPA per rush.

Daniels threw for 268 yards on 24-of-35 passing last week in his playoff debut. If he needs to sling it, he can.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 17: Bet on Wembanyama to dominate vs. Grizzlies, Herro to shine in Butler’s return

Victor Wembanyama was a defensive menace against the Memphis Grizzlies two nights ago, and I expect him to run it back on Friday in the same matchup.

The pregame narrative: The over on Wemby’s steals/blocks market comes in at plus money, and I’m buying in. Earlier in the night, look for Tyler Herro to stay hot in Jimmy Butler’s return.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 17.

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Best bet: Herro 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-134)

My initial thought with Herro was to back him over 24.5 points, but with the unpredictability of Butler’s return, I think this catch-all market might be a better play (you know, in case Butler starts heaving one-legged 3s from the corner again).

Herro is listed as a shooting guard, but he’s more like a Swiss Army knife for Miami.

In addition to leading the team in scoring (24.3 PPG), he’s also the leading passer (5.0 APG) and their No. 2 rebounder (5.7 RPG).

Altogether, that works out to an average of 35.0 PRA right on the dot.

Butler is also an accomplished passer and rebounder, but again, we don’t know what we’re getting from him tonight.

After fuelling trade rumours and serving a seven-game suspension, Butler is expected to play on Friday — but for how long and at what intensity?

Herro, on the other hand, has embraced a leadership role and is putting up career-best numbers across the board.

Over his past 15 games, Herro has cashed this bet 10 times while averaging 36.2 PRA.

Key stat: Against the Denver Nuggets (tonight’s opponents) back in November, Herro had 24 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists.

Quick picks

Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 threes (-129): The last time he faced the Orlando Magic, Porzingis went 0-for-4 from deep. Generally speaking, though, he’s dominant against this line.

Porzingis has cashed this bet in 12 of 17 games this year, averaging 2.2 makes on 37.0% shooting.

Yes, Orlando is arguably the worst possible matchup, as the team holds opponents to an NBA-low 11.0 threes per game.

But at Porzingis’ current volume (5.9 attempted threes per game), I don’t think this is too lofty of an ask.

Wembanyama over 5.5 steals/blocks (+102): This is a sky-high line that only Wembanyama could reach. But on the plus side of even money, I’m willing to take a flier on the over.

Two nights ago, Wemby swatted eight shots (all in the first half) and added two steals against the Grizzlies. He’ll see them again tonight, which is part of what makes this an enticing pick.

Memphis’ opponents have tallied the eighth-most steals (9.5/game) and the seventh-most blocks (5.8/game) this season.

The other factor here is that Wemby is a 1-of-1 rim protector. His output of “stocks” over the past 14 games is absurd:

5.1 blocks/game
1.0 steals/game
6+ stocks in 7/14
5+ stocks in 11/14

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/17/2025.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame CFP national championship prop picks: Bet on Howard, Egbuka to shine for Buckeyes

The Ohio State Buckeyes face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Monday night to crown the next national champions of the College Football Playoff.

The pregame narrative: Ohio State has a juggernaut of an offence, but Notre Dame’s strength starts on the defensive side. In a strength-on-strength showdown, I like OSU’s Will Howard and Emeka Egbuka to find ways to win.

Check out my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prop picks for the CFP national championship on Jan. 20.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prop picks

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Best Bet: Howard 250+ passing yards (-129)

Leonard Moore, Notre Dame’s stellar cornerback and FWAA Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, made a noteworthy claim on Wednesday regarding how the Irish aim to defend Ohio State’s offence:

“We’re going to play man coverage like we do every week,” Moore said. “We’re going to go out there and challenge the receivers.”

If I was Howard, I’d be thinking, “Challenge accepted.”

Ohio State has three highly capable route winners in its receiving corps for Howard to throw to:

Jeremiah Smith: No. 1 overall recruit in the 2024 class, Big Ten leader in receiving TDs (14) and viewed by many as the top receiver in the country.

Emeka Egbuka: 26 TDs and 2,804 yards in his collegiate career, expected to be a first-round pick in April’s NFL draft.

Carnell Tate: No. 3-ranked wideout in the 2023 class, has 50 catches and 698 yards as the team’s WR3.

If you’re willing to believe Moore’s claim that Notre Dame will commit to playing man coverage, you should also believe that someone on Ohio State’s side can take advantage and get open for Howard.

Notre Dame does have the No. 1 pass defence in the country, at least based on EPA per pass (-0.42), success rate (32.2%) and opponent completion percentage (50.7%).

Then again, Ohio State’s passing offence is near the top of the heap, too:

4th in EPA/pass (0.31)
2nd in success rate (52.5%)
6th in yards/attempt (9.2)

Ohio State’s WR room has no equal, and I think Notre Dame is about to find that out the hard way.

Key stat: Howard has cashed this bet in all three CFP matchups, throwing for 289-plus yards in each game.

Quick picks

Egbuka over 5.5 receptions (+128): Given that I’m riding with Ohio State’s passing offence, I wanted to back at least one receiver. This is somewhat of a hedge against Notre Dame either locking up Smith or bracketing him the way Texas did:

https://twitter.com/Jermiah_Smith1/status/1878112970615513443

Egbuka, a senior, is the go-to option for the Buckeyes on third down. He’s a sure-handed safety blanket that should get a fair share of looks on Monday night.

He’s only cashed this bet once in his past five games, but he also landed on exactly five catches three other times. In that five-game span, Egbuka has averaged 7.0 targets and 5.2 receptions.

Riley Leonard under 37.5 rushing yards (-117): Leonard has 167 rush attempts this year, which leads the way for the Irish, and the veteran quarterback will likely call his own number several times in the title game.

But volume isn’t enough of a sell for me to take the over on his yardage prop. After all, he turned 18 carries into just 36 yards against Penn State in the CFP semifinal.

Ohio State should be daring Leonard to throw and loading up the box to slow his legs.

Also, the Buckeyes have registered four or more sacks in all three playoff games — and sacks count against QB rushing yards.

Leonard has gone under this total in four of his past six games, averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per rush.

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET 01/17/2025.

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Texans vs. Chiefs divisional same-game parlay predictions: Fade Stroud, bet on Kansas City to win in +410 SGP

The NFL divisional round opens on Saturday afternoon in Kansas City, where the Chiefs host the Houston Texans.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Kansas City, the AFC’s top seed, to win in my +410 SGP. A trio of prop bets, featuring C.J. Stroud, John Metchie and DeAndre Hopkins, round out this ticket.

Check out my Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions.

Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Stroud under 239.5 pass yards + Metchie over 24.5 rec. yards + Hopkins over 24.5 rec. yards + Chiefs ML (+410)

Stroud under 239.5 passing yards (-177): Stroud just snuck past this line when he faced the Chiefs in Week 15, inefficiently turning 39 pass attempts into 244 yards. But I think he’s poised to go under on Saturday.

Outdoor road games have been a thorn in Stroud’s side so far in his young career.

12 games (incl. one playoff game)
58.8% completion rate
190.8 yards/game
83.8 QB rating

Last year, he threw for just 175 yards in the divisional round against Baltimore. And he threw for 191.0 yards in five outdoor road games this year (excluding his abbreviated start against Tennessee in Week 18).

The Chiefs, who ranked No. 9 in total defence this year, should give Stroud some problems — and the sub-zero temperatures throughout the game won’t help, either.

Other parlay picks

Metchie over 24.5 receiving yards (-220): Nico Collins is the main man in Houston’s wide receiver room, but he can’t command all the targets.

Metchie has put together a healthy target share over his past four games, with 24 targets in that span. He and Collins led the Texans with eight targets apiece in the wild-card round.

In fairness, Metchie hasn’t done a ton with his recent influx of opportunities. But opportunities themselves are valuable, and this is not a very hefty yardage total.

If Metchie sees four-plus targets again — in what would be a fifth-straight game — he should absolutely cash this bet.

Hopkins over 24.5 receiving yards (-162): Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs in their time of need, with Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice sidelined. He’s been a steady contributor for KC, and I expect that to continue.

Since joining the Chiefs in Week 8, Hopkins has averaged 43.7 yards per game. He’s seen four-plus targets in nine of 10 games in that span, and he’s cashed this bet nine times, too.

Applying similar logic here as I did to the Metchie pick, four-plus targets is a stellar floor for a yardage bet this low.

Chiefs moneyline (-455): Steer clear of this pick if you’d like, but it bumps the SGP up from +310 to +410, and that’s compelling enough for me.

Kansas City is 8-0 at home this season. Its spotless home record includes a 27-19 win over Houston in Week 16.

I’ve already spoken to Stroud’s struggles in an outdoor road setting. The Chiefs are thoroughly well-rested and should roll into their seventh consecutive AFC championship game.

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 01/16/2025.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame national championship best bets: Bet on Buckeyes to cover in a low-scoring battle

The Ohio State Buckeyes aim to cap off a dominant run through the College Football Playoff when they face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the national championship.

The pregame narrative: Ohio State looks like a team on a mission after blowing out a trio of quality opponents in the postseason. I like the Buckeyes to cover, but I also believe this lands under the projected total.

Check out my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best bets for the CFP national championship on Jan. 20.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best bets

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Best Bet: Ohio State -8 (-110)

The standard line is -9.5, but it doesn’t cost much to buy a couple of extra points. The Buckeyes are on a take-no-prisoner run of terror, and I expect them to secure a multi-score win.

You can’t tell the story of Ohio State’s season without mentioning its inexplicable 13-10 loss to Michigan on Nov. 30.

This year’s Wolverines were a hollowed-out version of the squad that won last year’s national championship. There was no excuse for the Buckeyes to lose as 19.5-point home favourites.

But since then, Ohio State has looked like the type of war machine that roughly $20 million in NIL funds is supposed to buy.

Ohio State thrashed Tennessee, 42-17, at home in Columbus in the first round of the CFP. Up next was a rematch against then-unbeaten Oregon, in which the Buckeyes had the game won at half and cruised to a 41-21 win.

And finally, in what was nearly a true road venue at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Ohio State handled Texas in a 14-point semifinal victory.

Notre Dame is a worthy opponent, but many of its typical advantages over other opponents don’t hold up against Ohio State.

Coaching: Marcus Freeman is great, and he might field some NFL offers this winter. But Ohio State’s enviable coordinator tandem of Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles is at least on the same playing field.

QB experience: Ohio State sees ND’s fourth-year quarterback, Riley Leonard, and raises it with fifth-year quarterback Will Howard.

Offensive line: ND is down one starter, and another is questionable. Ohio State is at full strength on the line, and the Buckeyes allowed the ninth-fewest sacks in the country this year (0.9/game).

Ohio State comes in hotter, healthier and with more talent. Covering this number wouldn’t surprise anyone.

Key stat: Ohio State has won six of its past seven games by 14-plus points.

Quick picks

Under 46.5 points (-110): Once again, I’m buying a bit of cushion to deviate from the standard line. And with the top-two scoring defences set to take the field, why not?

Ohio State allowed 12.2 PPG this season. Since Week 5, eight of its 12 games have gone under 46.5 points.

Notre Dame allowed 14.3 PPG this season. Only six of its 15 games went under this number, but it never faced a defence quite like the one the Buckeyes wield.

And in fairness to the Fighting Irish, they have the personnel to slow down the Buckeyes’ offence to some extent.

Notre Dame’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in success rate and in EPA per play, per gameonpaper.com.

Ohio State’s offence, led by freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith and potential 2025 first-round draftee Emeka Egbuka, is largely built to win through the air.

With arguably the two best defences in the country and a notable clash of styles, I don’t expect a scoring explosion.

Picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 01/06/2025.

Best NFL divisional prop picks: Bet overs on Shakir, Daniels and Barkley

For the NFL divisional round, I’ve got prop bets on players from three of the four games.

The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels and Khalil Shakir all performed well during the wild-card round, and I’m backing overs for each of them this weekend. Barkley, in particular, has a compelling rushing yards line in a matchup he’s dominated before.

Check out my NFL prop picks for the 2025 divisional action.

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Best bet: Barkley 110+ rushing yards (-125)

The Philadelphia Eagles are very deliberate about how they intend to beat their opponents. They want to run the ball (a lot), and Barkley is the man for the job.

Philly runs the ball on 55.9% of its plays, per Team Rankings, which paces the NFL. Barkley, the newest member of the 2,000-yard rusher club, hasn’t slowed down over the long season.

Check out Barkley’s rushing production over his past eight games:

24.9 attempts/game
141.6 yards/game
115+ yards in 6/8 games

Barkley galloped for a career-high 255 rushing yards against the Rams back in Week 12, and another big performance wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.

The Rams’ defence ranks 26th in yards per rush (4.6) and 20th in EPA per rush, according to rbsdm.com.

Again, the Eagles aren’t all that secretive about what they want to do offensively. Barkley should get the ball a bunch of times, and he should churn for a bunch of yards.

But even when teams know what’s coming, very few have been able to stop it.

Key stat: Barkley has averaged an NFL-best 124.9 rush yards this season.

Other prop bets

Daniels over 289.5 passing/rushing yards (-114): Last week, Daniels became just the fourth rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win a road playoff start. And although I’m not partial to win stats for individual players, Daniels definitely did his part in the victory.

Last year’s No. 2 overall pick completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 13 times for 36 yards.

Daniels will face a more hostile environment in Detroit than he did in Tampa Bay, but at least he’s gotten some playoff debut jitters (if there even were any) out of the way.

In his past six full games (i.e., excluding his partial performance in Week 18), Daniels has cashed this bet five times while averaging 313.0 passing/rushing yards.

Shakir 50+ receiving yards (-122): Shakir finished second in the NFL in yards after the catch this season, behind only Ja’Marr Chase.

He’s a highlight waiting to happen, and the Bills should continue finding consistent touches for him.

Dating back to Week 7, Shakir now has six-plus targets in 11 straight games. He finished with 61 yards on a team-high six catches in the wild-card round.

This is a comfortable total for Shakir, who’s hit the 50-yard mark in 10 of 16 games on the season. That includes a Week 4 matchup in Baltimore (four catches, 62 yards).

NFL picks made at 12:08 p.m. on 01/16/24.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 16: Ride with Powell, Henderson in Clippers vs. Trail Blazers matchup

I’m locking into tonight’s Los Angeles Clippers versus Portland Trail Blazers matchup with a pair of prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Norman Powell is shooting (and scoring) in bunches, and he looks like a great play tonight against a struggling Blazers squad. I also think Scoot Henderson can build off a career night, while Cade Cunningham is worth a look at plus money.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 16.

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Best bet: Powell 25+ points (-115)

Powell just continues to crush it in his first season as a starter for the Clippers.

The 10-year veteran is playing more and shooting more than ever before, which has led to a career-high scoring average (23.7 PPG).

He’s not just benefiting from volume, though. Powell is shooting the lights out, especially from 3-point range. His 44.7% shooting beyond the arc ranks second in the NBA.

Last night, Powell finished with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting (3-of-4 from deep). I’m sure he would’ve done more damage, but in a game the Clippers won by 59 points, he spent most of the second half on the bench.

Now he’ll face the Portland Trail Blazers, who are a plus matchup for talented shooting guards:

29th in points by opposing SGs
28th in defensive rating
27th in opponent 3PT%

Prior to last night’s abridged appearance, Powell had scored 25-plus points in nine of 12 games. This is a smash spot.

Key stat: Powell finished with 30 points in both previous matchups against the Blazers this season.

Quick picks

Henderson over 1.5 threes (-129): Two nights ago, Henderson re-entered Portland’s starting lineup and enjoyed the best game of his very young and embattled career:

39 minutes
39 points
13-of-18 shooting (8/10 3PT)

With multiple would-be starters slated to miss tonight’s game, Henderson should slot back into a starting spot.

Combine a minutes boost with what should be a confidence boost after his 39-point night, and I think we’re in business here.

Henderson has cashed this bet in six of his past 12 games, and he came off the bench in 11 of those games. The Clippers aren’t an ideal matchup, but on the heels of a back-to-back, he might be catching them at the right time.

Cunningham over 2.5 threes (+108): Cunningham is having a moment right now, making a serious push for his first all-star bid in the final days of fan voting.

The Detroit Pistons’ floor general has scored 30-plus points in four of his past six games, and I think they’ll need to lean on him in a key matchup against the Indiana Pacers.

Cunningham’s markets are looking bloated these days thanks to his strong output, but I think plus-money odds on this 3s line has value.

In two previous matchups vs. Indiana this year, Cunningham is 6-of-12 (50.0%) from deep.

Cunningham has 3+ threes in 13/19 games since Nov. 29, shooting 40.2% beyond the arc in that span.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 01/16/2025.

Nets vs. Clippers prop picks Jan. 15: Bet on Kawhi Leonard in plus-money wager

The Brooklyn Nets’ six-game West Coast swing continues on Wednesday night with a matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard looks like a great value play on this 3s prop, with a modest over priced at plus money. On the Nets’ side of things, I think Ziaire Williams is worth fading as a scorer.

Check out my Nets vs. Clippers prop picks for Jan. 15.

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Best Bet: Leonard over 1.5 threes (+143)

Leonard is only three games into his 2024-25 season after spending months recovering from a right knee injury. So we don’t have much to go off yet.

But this is a great price to back a talented 3-point shooter whose opportunities will hopefully start to tick up soon.

Leonard has played between 19 and 21 minutes in his three games so far.

He’s 5-for-13 (38.5%) from deep, cashing this bet in 2/3 games.

Leonard has a history of being an effective 3-point shooter, which is part of what I’m leaning into for this pick.

In his past six healthy seasons (i.e., since 2018-19), Leonard has averaged 2.0 threes on 5.1 attempts (39.5%). He’s averaged 1.7 threes on at least 37.1% shooting in each of those seasons individually, too.

Now he’ll face a Nets squad that has struggled to defend the perimeter this season. Brooklyn allows the third-highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.9%).

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Leonard has cashed this bet in 47 of 71 games (66.2%).

Quick pick

Williams under 13.5 points (-104): Williams has spent almost half his season as a starter, and his numbers have seen a notable boost in that span.

Still, he’s not involved enough as a scorer for me to take the over on this line.

Starter (13 games): 25.9 minutes, 12.2 points (9.4 FGA)

Reserve (15 games): 19.9 minutes, 7.5 points (6.5 FGA)

Williams, in his first season with Brooklyn, has gone under this point total in nine of 13 starts.

That seems like the sensible prediction again, given that the Clippers allow the fifth-fewest points per game in the NBA.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 01/15/2024.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame national championship best bets: Bet on Buckeyes to cover, Jeremiyah Love to score

The Ohio State Buckeyes aim to cap off a dominant run through the College Football Playoff when they face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the national championship.

The pregame narrative: Ohio State looks like a team on a mission after blowing out a trio of quality opponents in the postseason. I like the Buckeyes to cover, but I also believe Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has value as an anytime TD scorer.

Check out my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best bets for the CFP national championship on Jan. 20.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best bets

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Best Bet: Ohio State -7.5 (-125)

The standard line is -9.5, but it doesn’t cost much to buy a couple of extra points. The Buckeyes are on a take-no-prisoner run of terror, and I expect them to secure a multi-score win.

You can’t tell the story of Ohio State’s season without mentioning its inexplicable 13-10 loss to Michigan on Nov. 30.

This year’s Wolverines were a hollowed-out version of the squad that won last year’s national championship. There was no excuse for the Buckeyes to lose as 19.5-point home favourites.

But since then, Ohio State has looked like the type of war machine that roughly $20 million in NIL funds is supposed to buy.

Ohio State thrashed Tennessee, 42-17, at home in Columbus in the first round of the CFP. Up next was a rematch against then-unbeaten Oregon, in which the Buckeyes had the game won at half and cruised to a 41-21 win.

And finally, in what was nearly a true road venue at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Ohio State handled Texas in a 14-point semifinal victory.

Notre Dame is a worthy opponent, but many of its typical advantages over other opponents don’t hold up against Ohio State.

Coaching: Marcus Freeman is great, and he might field some NFL offers this winter. But Ohio State’s enviable coordinator tandem of Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles is at least on the same playing field.

QB experience: Ohio State sees ND’s fourth-year quarterback, Riley Leonard, and raises it with fifth-year quarterback Will Howard.

Offensive line: ND is down one starter, and another is questionable. Ohio State is at full strength on the line, and the Buckeyes allowed the ninth-fewest sacks in the country this year (0.9/game).

Ohio State comes in hotter, healthier and with more talent. Covering this number wouldn’t surprise anyone.

Key stat: Ohio State has won six of its past seven games by 14-plus points.

Quick picks

Under 46.5 points (-124): Once again, I’m buying a bit of cushion to deviate from the standard line. And with the top-two scoring defences set to take the field, why not?

Ohio State allowed 12.2 PPG this season. Since Week 5, eight of its 12 games have gone under 46.5 points.

Notre Dame allowed 14.3 PPG this season. Only six of its 15 games went under this number, but it never faced a defence quite like the one the Buckeyes wield.

And in fairness to the Fighting Irish, they have the personnel to slow down the Buckeyes’ offence to some extent.

Notre Dame’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in success rate and in EPA per play, per gameonpaper.com.

Ohio State’s offence, led by freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith and potential 2025 first-round draftee Emeka Egbuka, is largely built to win through the air.

With arguably the two best defences in the country and a notable clash of styles, I don’t expect a scoring explosion.

Love anytime TD (+140): If you’ve gotten this far into the article, you know I’ve spent a lot of it bashing Notre Dame. But here’s an Irish-friendly pick that I think has fantastic value.

Love has had a nose for the end zone all season, scoring with remarkable consistency:

19 total TDs
1+ TDs in 14/15 games

His only TD-free performance was in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia when he tweaked his knee and saw limited touches.

Fortunately, Love was back to his angry-running self in the CFP semifinal.

JEREMIYAH. LOVE. #GoIrish

pic.twitter.com/BanhJnX7ir
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 10, 2025

Ohio State might have the best defence in FBS, but it’s rarely perfect. Notre Dame will likely try to grind down the Buckeyes through the run game, and Love is the featured back of the bunch.

Also, the Buckeyes allowed 11 receptions and two TDs to Texas running backs in the semifinal. None of Notre Dame’s running backs see a ton of receiving work, but Love is at the forefront in that regard, too (26 catches for 232 yards and two TDs this year).

Picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 01/06/2025.