For the NFL divisional round, I’ve got prop bets on players from three of the four games.
The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels and Khalil Shakir all performed well during the wild-card round, and I’m backing overs for each of them this weekend. Barkley, in particular, has a compelling rushing yards line in a matchup he’s dominated before.
Check out my NFL prop picks for the 2025 divisional action.
NFL prop picks
Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.
Best bet: Barkley 110+ rushing yards (-125)
The Philadelphia Eagles are very deliberate about how they intend to beat their opponents. They want to run the ball (a lot), and Barkley is the man for the job.
Philly runs the ball on 55.9% of its plays, per Team Rankings, which paces the NFL. Barkley, the newest member of the 2,000-yard rusher club, hasn’t slowed down over the long season.
Check out Barkley’s rushing production over his past eight games:
- 24.9 attempts/game
- 141.6 yards/game
- 115+ yards in 6/8 games
Barkley galloped for a career-high 255 rushing yards against the Rams back in Week 12, and another big performance wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.
The Rams’ defence ranks 26th in yards per rush (4.6) and 20th in EPA per rush, according to rbsdm.com.
Again, the Eagles aren’t all that secretive about what they want to do offensively. Barkley should get the ball a bunch of times, and he should churn for a bunch of yards.
But even when teams know what’s coming, very few have been able to stop it.
Key stat: Barkley has averaged an NFL-best 124.9 rush yards this season.
Other prop bets
Daniels over 289.5 passing/rushing yards (-114): Last week, Daniels became just the fourth rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win a road playoff start. And although I’m not partial to win stats for individual players, Daniels definitely did his part in the victory.
Last year’s No. 2 overall pick completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 13 times for 36 yards.
Daniels will face a more hostile environment in Detroit than he did in Tampa Bay, but at least he’s gotten some playoff debut jitters (if there even were any) out of the way.
In his past six full games (i.e., excluding his partial performance in Week 18), Daniels has cashed this bet five times while averaging 313.0 passing/rushing yards.
Shakir 50+ receiving yards (-122): Shakir finished second in the NFL in yards after the catch this season, behind only Ja’Marr Chase.
He’s a highlight waiting to happen, and the Bills should continue finding consistent touches for him.
Dating back to Week 7, Shakir now has six-plus targets in 11 straight games. He finished with 61 yards on a team-high six catches in the wild-card round.
This is a comfortable total for Shakir, who’s hit the 50-yard mark in 10 of 16 games on the season. That includes a Week 4 matchup in Baltimore (four catches, 62 yards).
NFL picks made at 12:08 p.m. on 01/16/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.