Victor Wembanyama was a defensive menace against the Memphis Grizzlies two nights ago, and I expect him to run it back on Friday in the same matchup.
The pregame narrative: The over on Wemby’s steals/blocks market comes in at plus money, and I’m buying in. Earlier in the night, look for Tyler Herro to stay hot in Jimmy Butler’s return.
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Best bet: Herro 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-134)
My initial thought with Herro was to back him over 24.5 points, but with the unpredictability of Butler’s return, I think this catch-all market might be a better play (you know, in case Butler starts heaving one-legged 3s from the corner again).
Herro is listed as a shooting guard, but he’s more like a Swiss Army knife for Miami.
In addition to leading the team in scoring (24.3 PPG), he’s also the leading passer (5.0 APG) and their No. 2 rebounder (5.7 RPG).
Altogether, that works out to an average of 35.0 PRA right on the dot.
Butler is also an accomplished passer and rebounder, but again, we don’t know what we’re getting from him tonight.
After fuelling trade rumours and serving a seven-game suspension, Butler is expected to play on Friday — but for how long and at what intensity?
Herro, on the other hand, has embraced a leadership role and is putting up career-best numbers across the board.
Over his past 15 games, Herro has cashed this bet 10 times while averaging 36.2 PRA.
Key stat: Against the Denver Nuggets (tonight’s opponents) back in November, Herro had 24 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists.
Quick picks
Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 threes (-129): The last time he faced the Orlando Magic, Porzingis went 0-for-4 from deep. Generally speaking, though, he’s dominant against this line.
Porzingis has cashed this bet in 12 of 17 games this year, averaging 2.2 makes on 37.0% shooting.
Yes, Orlando is arguably the worst possible matchup, as the team holds opponents to an NBA-low 11.0 threes per game.
But at Porzingis’ current volume (5.9 attempted threes per game), I don’t think this is too lofty of an ask.
Wembanyama over 5.5 steals/blocks (+102): This is a sky-high line that only Wembanyama could reach. But on the plus side of even money, I’m willing to take a flier on the over.
Two nights ago, Wemby swatted eight shots (all in the first half) and added two steals against the Grizzlies. He’ll see them again tonight, which is part of what makes this an enticing pick.
Memphis’ opponents have tallied the eighth-most steals (9.5/game) and the seventh-most blocks (5.8/game) this season.
The other factor here is that Wemby is a 1-of-1 rim protector. His output of “stocks” over the past 14 games is absurd:
- 5.1 blocks/game
- 1.0 steals/game
- 6+ stocks in 7/14
- 5+ stocks in 11/14
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.