Jameson Williams and Jayden Daniels are my two prop targets for Saturday night’s playoff matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: The price may not jump off the screen for Williams’ receptions prop, but he’s been such a steady presence for Detroit that I’m still looking to buy in. As for Daniels, there are a handful of reasons why he has value in the passing game.
Check out my Commanders vs. Lions prop picks for the divisional round.
Commanders vs. Lions prop picks
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Best bet: Williams over 3.5 receptions (-175)
There’s a lot of juice on this line, but I still think it’s playable as a straight wager based on Williams’ hefty involvement in the Lions’ game plan over the latter half of the season.
Splitting his season in half, look at how Williams’ statistical averages have climbed:
- First 7 games: 5.0 targets, 2.9 catches, 59.1 yards
- Past 8 games: 7.0 targets, 4.8 catches, 73.4 yards
Due to injuries and suspensions, it took Williams three seasons to blossom into the wideout Detroit needs him to be.
The 12th overall pick from the 2022 draft is a certified burner, but the Lions aren’t always looking to send him on a go route. Sometimes, it makes more sense to give him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and let him make a play.
Williams’ average depth of target is 11.3 yards this year (versus 15.7 last year and 16.7 as a rookie). Remember, this pick is about volume, not one splash play.
Fortunately for Detroit, Williams can do both. He’s a superb sidekick for Amon-Ra St. Brown, creating a completely different type of matchup issue.
In a game with a sky-high projected total (55.5 points), I like Williams to stay firmly involved for the home team.
Key stat: Williams went over 3.5 receptions in seven of his final eight games during the regular season, totalling 38 catches in that span.
Quick pick
Daniels over 238.5 passing yards (-118): In the wild-card round, Daniels became just the fourth rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win a road playoff start. And although I’m not partial to win stats for individual players, Daniels definitely did his part in the victory.
Last year’s No. 2 overall pick completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 13 times for 36 yards.
Daniels will face a more hostile environment in Detroit than he did in Tampa Bay, but at least he’s gotten some playoff debut jitters (if there even were any) out of the way.
In his past six full games (i.e., excluding his partial performance in Week 18), Daniels has averaged 243.3 passing yards.
Picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.