For the third (and final) time this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers face the Baltimore Ravens in a grudge match fit for the playoffs.
The pregame narrative: Baltimore finished strong down the stretch while Pittsburgh faltered, and now the Ravens are the heaviest favourites of wild-card weekend. My +310 SGP for Saturday’s matchup features two prop targets (Derrick Henry and Calvin Austin) and an alt spread.
Check out my Steelers vs. Ravens same-game parlay predictions.
Steelers vs. Ravens same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Ravens -6.5 + Henry anytime TD + Austin over 24.5 receiving yards (+310)
Ravens -6.5 (-182): Bettors who are hyper-focused on head-to-head history may pause at this pick.
The Steelers, inexplicably, have won eight of 10 games against the Ravens since the 2020 season. Pittsburgh was the underdog in six of those victories.
I’m not leaning into any sort of AFC North voodoo, though. What has my attention is the way these teams closed out the 2024-25 season.
- Pittsburgh went 0-4 (1-3 ATS) with a -52 point differential. The Steelers scored no more than 17 points in any of those games.
- Baltimore went 4-0 (4-0 ATS) with a +92 point differential. The Ravens scored no fewer than 31 points in any of those games.
The key to all of this is that the Ravens just beat the Steelers, 34-17, in Baltimore on Dec. 21. Pittsburgh’s offence is in shambles right now, while Baltimore is enjoying its best surge of the season.
Head-to-head history be damned. It’s time for the Ravens to roll.
Other parlay picks
Henry anytime TD (-190): Henry had a four-game TD drought from Weeks 12-16, but he got back to business in the Ravens’ final two games.
On the season, Henry scored in 13 of 17 matchups and matched a career-high with 18 total TDs.
His numbers against the Steelers were also superb:
- Week 11: 13 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD (5.0 YPC)
- Week 16: 24 carries, 162 yards (6.8 YPC)
Henry averaged 21.3 carries and 122.7 yards (5.8 YPC) over his final six games in Year 1 as a Raven. We’ve known for a long time than he thrives in a bell-cow role, and he’s proving it once again.
With Zay Flowers (knee) ruled out, the Ravens should be encouraged to lean on Henry even more. And the red zone opportunities should follow.
Austin over 24.5 receiving yards (-120): Last week was a nightmare for every Steelers receiver, but I’m not ready to lose faith in Austin.
Prior to his catch-free Week 18, Austin posted these averages over an 11-game span:
- 4.1 targets
- 37.9 yards
- 25+ yards in 8/11 games
In his second full NFL season, Austin blossomed into a steady producer for an up-and-down Steelers offence.
During Pittsburgh’s recent struggles, Austin has remained a bright spot.
Three weeks ago in Baltimore, Austin paced Steelers receivers with 65 yards on five targets.
Picks made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.