On Friday, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns meet in the Cotton Bowl for a berth in the national championship.
The pregame narrative: Ohio State is a 6-point favourite in the second College Football Playoff semifinal. I expect a big game from freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, and I think Quinn Ewers is worth fading.
Check out my Ohio State vs. Texas prop picks for the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 10.
Ohio State vs. Texas prop picks
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Best Bet: Smith 90+ receiving yards (-121)
True freshmen aren’t supposed to do what Smith has done this season.
- Led the Big Ten in receiving yards (1,224) and receiving TDs (14)
- Scored 1+ TDs in 11/14 games
- Collected 70+ yards in 11/14 games
A lot of folks think Smith is ready to be a top-five NFL draft pick today, and I agree with them. At 19, he plays like a man among boys at the collegiate level.
Texas is undoubtedly aware that Smith is the guy to have eyes on. But that doesn’t mean the Longhorns can stop him.
All season long, Texas was regarded as one of the top pass defences in the country. The Longhorns rank No. 2 in defensive EPA per pass and No. 3 in defensive pass success rate, per gameonpaper.com. But they’ve gotten torched through the air in the CFP.
After allowing no more than 211 pass yards to any of its first 13 opponents, Texas allowed 336 pass yards to Clemson and 296 to Arizona State.
Both Clemson and Arizona State had a receiver clear this yardage total, too.
In any one-on-one setting, Jeremiah Smith will have the upper hand. He’s been a menace in the playoffs so far and that should continue.
Key stat: Smith has 100-plus receiving yards in three of his past five games — cashing this prop in both CFP matchups (290 total receiving yards vs. Tennessee and Oregon).
Quick pick
Ewers under 239.5 passing yards (-118): Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel is the only quarterback to throw for more than 201 yards against Ohio State this season. Not that the Buckeyes faced a bunch of A-list college QBs, but that’s still quite a feat.
I like the idea of a revenge game for Ewers, a former No. 1 overall recruit who signed with Ohio State and then transferred before ever throwing a pass. But the numbers don’t work in his favour.
Ewers has gone under this mark in four of his past six games, and he’s about to face arguably the country’s best defence.
Ohio State ranks …
- 1st in defensive success rate
- 3rd in defensive EPA/pass
- 3rd in sacks/game
Based on the fact Ewers was never replaced by Arch Manning during Texas’ perilous quarterfinal matchup against Arizona State, it seems unlikely he’d be benched on Friday.
But even if Ewers is on the field the whole time, that doesn’t mean he’ll be racking up yards.
Picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET 01/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.