The struggling Phoenix Suns host the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night in the desert.
The pregame narrative: Phoenix, which is 2-8 in its past 10 games, will need to continue to lean on Kevin Durant in order to turn things around. I’m taking the over on Durant’s points prop as my best bet, while tailing Bradley Beal and Zaccharie Risacher in other ways.
Check out my Hawks vs. Suns prop picks for Jan. 9.
Hawks vs. Suns prop picks
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Best Bet: Durant over 26.5 points (-114)
Durant’s career scoring average is 27.3 PPG. Amazingly, he’s putting up 27.4 PPG right now in Year 17.
The four-time scoring champ can get a bucket from anywhere, which makes him a great guy to bet on in numerous matchups.
Facing a team that struggles to defend the 3-point line? Durant is shooting 40.8% from deep this year on 5.7 attempts.
Facing a team that takes too many fouls? Durant has an 84.2% free throw rate on 6.8 attempts.
Of these two camps, Atlanta falls into the former. The Hawks allow the most attempted 3s per game (40.5) and the highest opponent 3PT% (38.4).
In a more general sense, the Hawks allow the third-most points per game (119.8).
This is clearly a plus matchup, and Durant’s points prop asks less of him than his season average. That’s enough to sell me.
In his past five matchups against the Hawks (since April 2022), Durant has averaged 33.8 points.
Key stat: Durant has gone over 26.5 points in 13 of 25 games this season.
Quick pick
Beal over 3.5 assists (-104): Beal has come off the bench for the Suns in back-to-back games, but he still played 30-plus minutes in both matchups. In other words, it’s been more of a realignment than a demotion.
As a shooting guard, Beal doesn’t tend to rack up assists, but this line isn’t asking too much of him. He’s gone over 3.5 assists in eight of his past 14 games — including both as Phoenix’s sixth man.
Also, Atlanta is a great matchup for anyone looking to pass the rock:
- 3rd-most assists allowed overall (28.7)
- 4th-most assists allowed to SGs (5.6), per Betting Pros
Beal had 19 assists in two matchups against the Hawks last winter, easily cashing this bet in both games.
Risacher over 4.5 rebounds (+110): I like this plus-money flier on Risacher, who’s cashed this bet in four of his past seven games while averaging 4.7 RPG in that span.
Risacher has three-plus rebounds in each of his past seven games. That’s easily his most consistent production on the glass all year.
Some folks may have expected more from last June’s No. 1 overall pick, but not everyone can step in to play like Victor Wembanyama.
Phoenix allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing small forwards (8.3), so this should be a nice opportunity for Risacher to stay active in that regard.
Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 01/09/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.