From Nassau, Bahamas, the Buffalo Bulls battle the Liberty Flames in the final non-playoff bowl game of the season.
The pregame narrative: Liberty underwhelmed this year, while Buffalo outperformed most people’s expectations — and now it’s the Bulls who are favoured in this paradisal showdown. I’ll lay the points with Buffalo, a team that should also clear its point total.
Check out my Buffalo vs. Liberty best bets for the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.
Buffalo vs. Liberty best bets
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Best Bet: Buffalo -3 (-110)
Kaidon Salter was supposed to lead Liberty back to the Conference USA mountaintop, but that didn’t happen. And after an 8-3 season (with one game postponed due to weather), Salter has sauntered off to Colorado via the transfer portal.
The redshirt junior QB is far from Liberty’s only absence in the Bahamas Bowl. Other notable players include:
- RB1 Quinton Cooley (1,254 rush yards)
- Starting LB Jerome Jolly Jr. (55 tackles)
- Two starting offensive linemen
Appalachian State transfer Ryan Burger steps in at quarterback, and he’ll be a complete unknown after attempting just 24 passes over three seasons.
One thing we do know is that Burger doesn’t possess Salter’s talent as a runner. Salter scampered for 579 yards and seven TDs on 5.1 yards/carry this year.
Buffalo probably had less talent to begin with compared to Liberty, but the Bulls have also had much less of a talent drain via opt-outs and transfer portal moves.
None of Buffalo’s starters are expected to miss Saturday’s game. And the Bulls will have the best player on either side, linebacker Shaun Dolac, who landed AP first-team All-American honours.
Buffalo (8-4) won by at least a field goal in each of its victories. And all four of its losses came against teams that have since won a bowl game.
Key stat: Liberty went 3-8 ATS this season.
Quick pick
Buffalo over 26.5 points (-118): Buffalo had a pretty terrible offence this year, at least from an efficiency standpoint.
Out of 134 schools, the Bulls ranked 113th in success rate and 130th in yards per play, according to gameonpaper.com.
But a full-strength Liberty squad let Kennesaw State put up 27 points this year, and the Owls had arguably the worst offence in the country: 132nd in success rate, 134th in yards per play.
Seven of Liberty’s 11 opponents scored 24-plus points, so the Flames are familiar with allowing a point total that’s at least in this range.
As for Buffalo, the team has gone over 26.5 points in six of its past seven games. The Bulls played a lot of feeble Mid-American Conference schools in that stretch, mind you, but that’s still nice to see.
With at least three key contributors out on defence for Liberty, this is an attainable number.
Picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET 01/03/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.