The Sacramento Kings host the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA’s late-night Friday slate.
The pregame narrative: Malik Monk has taken an increased role for the Kings and run with it, which is why I like him tonight in a game with major scoring upside. For the Grizzlies, look to Jaren Jackson Jr. on a plus-money prop.
Check out my Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks for Jan. 3.
Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks
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Best Bet: Monk over 18.5 points (-115)
Monk has long been one of the league’s top players off the bench, and he was the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up a season ago. But right now, he’s running with the ones — and thriving.
Since Nov. 27, Monk has played 30-plus minutes (i.e., starter’s minutes) in 16 straight games. Here’s how he’s fared:
- 18.1 PPG
- 19+ points in 8/16 games
- 14.7 FGA (8.1 3PA)
Prior to this stretch of extended work, Monk averaged 12.7 PPG on 10.5 shots (4.5 threes).
Though his scoring average with starter’s minutes still falls a hair below this line, Monk is a good bet to cash the over against the lightning-quick Grizzlies.
Memphis is playing at a pace of 105.5 possessions per game. That’s on track to be the NBA’s fastest pace in over 30 years.
That helps explain why tonight’s matchup has the highest projected total of the night (240 points) despite Memphis owning the league’s fourth-best defensive rating.
With tons of possessions to go around, Monk should get plenty of shots up. This prop should also be aided by the fact that Keegan Murray (10.9 FGA) is doubtful for the Kings.
In two games without Murray this season, Monk has scored 20-plus points both times.
Key stat: Monk has cashed this bet in three of four games against the Grizzlies since last season.
Quick pick
Jackson over 2.5 assists (+105): Jackson only averages 1.8 assists per game and will never be a primary facilitator from the centre position. But he’s been more active as a passer in recent games.
- 3.7 assists/game in his past seven games
- 3+ assists in five straight
Jackson collected four assists in back-to-back games, which coincided with the injury absence of point guard Ja Morant. With Morant sidelined again tonight, other players will have to step up.
The Kings allow the 10th-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.5), per Betting Pros.
Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 01/03/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.