The final week of the NFL regular season is here, and I’ve got a trio of prop bets to cover Sunday’s afternoon action.
The pregame narrative: DK Metcalf is flirting with a milestone yardage total, and I like him to cash in at a plus-money price. Elsewhere, look for Bucky Irving to keep rolling in the ground game and for Marvin Mims to stay involved.
Check out the best NFL Week 18 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 18 prop bets
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Best bet: Mims 30+ receiving yards (-105)
This line just seems way too low for a receiver with big-play upside, who’s also coming off his best target volume of the year.
Last week, Mims caught all of his eight targets — a season-high — and turned them into 103 yards and two TDs.
Mims leads the NFL in punt return yards, and the Denver Broncos have finally figured out that it might be smart to get him the ball on offence, too.
- Mims has seen 25+ offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks (he’d averaged 14.8 snaps before that).
- He has 40+ receiving yards in 5/6 games since Week 11.
- Mims has a catch of 20+ yards in five of his past six games.
Another eight-target week would be great, but it’d be far from necessary. Still, Mims has four-plus targets in five straight games, so I think his floor is secure.
The Kansas City Chiefs boast the No. 4 total defence, and they held Mims to 13 yards in Week 10. But KC has the AFC’s top seed locked up, which means several backups are likely to see action.
Denver needs a win, and Mims should be involved to try to make that happen.
Key stat: Over his past six games, Mims has averaged 63.8 receiving yards.
Quick picks
Irving over 84.5 rushing yards (-113): Irving was the dominant tailback in Tampa Bay’s three-RB system last week. In my view, he’s earned another robust workload for Week 18.
Last Sunday, Irving turned 20 carries into 113 yards while amassing 77 yards as a receiver. His backups, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, totalled 78 scrimmage yards on 16 touches.
With the New Orleans Saints due up, Irving should continue to feast.
- New Orleans ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush (4.9).
- Irving had 105 scrimmage yards (81 rushing) on just 16 touches against the Saints in Week 6.
Irving has cashed this bet in four of his past six games, averaging 90.2 rush yards in that span.
Metcalf 60+ receiving yards (+116): If you’re into NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones, this bet is for you.
Metcalf is 61 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season, which would be his third in a row. It’s time to see how good of a friend Geno Smith is.
Speaking of Smith, he needs 185 passing yards to activate a $2 million bonus. So it’s fair to assume he’ll be motivated to air it out in a game that is otherwise meaningless for the Seattle Seahawks.
The Los Angeles Rams have clinched the NFC West and appear likely to rest at least some of their starters. Last year, Metcalf put up 94 receiving yards in Los Angeles against a full-strength Rams squad.
Picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 01/02/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.