Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Hawks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Jan. 1: Bet on Denver to win, Trae Young to score

Hawks vs. Nuggets predictions

For the second time in less than a month, the Denver Nuggets and Atlanta Hawks meet on the hardwood.

The pregame narrative: Denver is still one of the best home teams in the NBA, and I expect the Nuggets to kick off the new year with a win. Even so, I like Trae Young to go over his point total as he rides a scoring surge.

Check out my Hawks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 1.

Hawks vs. Nuggets predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104855

Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Over 241.5 points + Young over 21.5 points (+280)

Nuggets moneyline (-215): On Dec. 8, Denver bounced Atlanta on the road, 141-111.

Given how thoroughly dominant the Nuggets were in that game, I think a simple win on home court should be perfectly attainable.

Denver is 46-16 at home since the start of last season. All five of the Nuggets’ home losses this year came against strong teams, who collectively have a .720 win percentage this year.

Atlanta (18-15) is solid, but not in the tier of teams that has pushed Denver at Ball Arena.

The Nuggets have the sixth-best net rating in their past 10 games (+7.9). In the same span, the Hawks’ net rating is +0.9.

SGP legs

Over 241.5 points (-200): Regardless of who wins, one thing I expect from tonight is a lot of points.

The Nuggets have the highest overs percentage in the NBA (21-10, 67.7%), per Team Rankings. Right behind them are the Hawks at 22-11 (66.7%).

As mentioned above, Denver and Atlanta combined for 252 total points when they matched up in December. So although this is a hefty total — higher than any standard line across the league tonight — it’s one I know these teams can clear.

Denver has hit a 250-point total in seven of its past 10 games.

Young over 21.5 points (-143): Young only scored 15 points against Denver last month, but that’s an anomaly compared to his other recent output.

  • 25.2 PPG in his past nine games
  • 22+ points in 7/9 games since Dec. 6

Prior to this nine-game heater, Young had averaged 20.7 PPG over 22 games. Not bad relative to this line, but I’m also heartened by the recent uptick.

Young’s 3-point production has been key to his improved scoring, as he’s shooting 40.5% from deep over his past nine games.

Denver should be a good matchup for him to continue firing. The Nuggets allow the seventh-most made 3s in the NBA.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET 01/01/2025

Notre Dame vs. Georgia CFP same-game parlay predictions: Look for Jeremiyah Love to lead the Irish in playoff quarterfinal

Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions

In the final College Football Playoff matchup of the quarterfinal round, the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl.

The pregame narrative: Jeremiyah Love has produced all year for the Irish, and I think he’ll find the end zone once again on Wednesday. My +320 SGP also includes an alt spread in Notre Dame’s favour and a fade of Georgia receiver Dillon Bell.

Check out my top Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions for this quarterfinal CFP matchup on Jan. 1.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions

Editor’s note: Notre Dame vs. Georgia, originally scheduled for Jan. 1, was postponed to Jan. 2.

Go to full college football betting markets

Embed: #104844

Parlay: Notre Dame +3.5 + Love anytime TD + Bell under 34.5 receiving yards (+320)

Notre Dame +3.5 (-177): My moneyline lean is with Notre Dame, so I’m perfectly content to back the Fighting Irish with a field goal and a hook.

Notre Dame is 10-2-1 ATS this season, which is the third-best mark in Division I. The team covered this number in every game, posting an average point differential of +25.0 points.

Georgia went just 4-9 ATS and failed to cover a -3.5 spread five times — including back-to-back games entering the Sugar Bowl.

With Carson Beck sidelined, Georgia has to turn to an unproven quarterback, Gunner Stockton. The sophomore has just 51 career pass attempts.

By comparison, Notre Dame is led by senior QB Riley Leonard, who’s in his third year as a starter.

In a game of this magnitude, I’d rather hitch my wagon to Leonard and his experience over the uncertainty of Stockton.

Other parlay picks

Love anytime TD (-121): This looks like a great pick as a straight wager, and it fits in well with my belief that ND can at least hang around against Georgia.

Love isn’t a workhorse back, per se, as he averages 12.8 touches per game. But he always seems to give the Irish their money’s worth.

In 13 games, Love has 18 total touchdowns. And he’s cashed this bet in every matchup.

Against Indiana in the first round of the CFP, Love galloped for a 98-yard score to set the tone early.

https://twitter.com/ESPNCFB/status/1870280793831964739

Don’t let Georgia’s reputation of stout defence fool you. This year’s squad has been good, but not great:

  • 51st in rush EPA/play
  • 42nd in rush success rate
  • 30th in rush yards/attempt

Bell under 34.5 receiving yards (-195): My wariness about Stockton extends to Georgia’s pass-catchers, and I think Bell is a worthwhile player to fade on Wednesday night.

Bell averaged 36.1 yards this year and went under 34.5 yards in eight of 12 games. So unless he’s seeing a particularly encouraging matchup, this is already an iffy line to take the over on.

Notre Dame is far from an encouraging matchup for Bell, given that the Irish rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per pass, according to gameonpaper.com.

The Irish were the only team in the country to hold opponents to a sub-50.0% completion percentage, and they also allowed just 5.6 yards per attempt (third in the NCAA).

Georgia should struggle to move the ball through the air, making this a very attainable under for Bell.

Picks made at 11:05 a.m. on 01/01/25.

Ohio State vs. Oregon CFP same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Jeremiah Smith, Jordan James in +270 playoff parlay

Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks already played one high-flying game against each other this year, and I’m looking for more offensive fireworks in the Rose Bowl.

The pregame narrative: In Wednesday’s College Football Playoff quarterfinal, I like Jeremiah Smith and Tez Johnson to both make their mark in the receiving game. This +270 SGP also includes an anytime touchdown bet on Jordan James.

Check out my top Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions for this quarterfinal CFP matchup on Jan. 1.

Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions

Go to full college football betting markets

Embed: #104828

Parlay: Smith 70+ receiving yards + Johnson 60+ receiving yards + James anytime TD (+270)

Smith 70+ receiving yards (-150): When Ohio State and Oregon met in October, they combined for 63 points and over 950 yards of offence. I want to tap into the offensive firepower that exists on both sides, and that begins with Smith.

The freshman standout receiver torched the Ducks for a season-high nine catches, which he turned into 100 yards and a TD.

  • Smith has 70+ yards in 10/13 games.
  • He averages 79.8 yards per game.
  • Since Oct. 12, Smith has 7+ targets in 6/8 games (lead by 13 targets vs. Oregon).

Smith’s target share is steady, and Oregon didn’t have an answer for him in the first meeting. Ohio State should continue to make him the focal point of the offence.

Other parlay picks

Johnson 60+ receiving yards (-245): Johnson has had a bumpy closing stretch to the season, which started with an injury on Nov. 2 against Michigan.

After that, Oregon’s top receiver missed two games and was sparingly used in his return on Nov. 30 (a 21-point blowout win over Washington).

But Johnson was fully activated in the Big Ten title game, hauling in 11 catches for 181 yards and a score.

When healthy, Johnson is a game-breaker with high usage. He has eight-plus targets and 60+ yards in 8 of 11 games this season.

Against Ohio State, Johnson had seven catches for 75 yards and a TD.

James anytime TD (-230): It’s been a banner season for James, who has 15 TDs and 1,455 scrimmage yards. And he really hasn’t had any down weeks.

James has found the end zone in 11 of 13 games — including each of his past five. In his two TD-free weeks this year, he still churned for 100+ scrimmage yards.

Ohio State’s defence is arguably the best there is, ranking No. 1 in points and yards allowed. But it’s nothing James hasn’t seen before.

In October, James turned 24 touches into 121 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. He’s the go-to guy at the goal line, but he also has home run potential.

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. on 01/01/25.

Penn State vs. Boise State CFP same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Tyler Warren, fade Ashton Jeanty in playoff quarterfinal

Penn State vs. Boise State predictions

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin on New Year’s Eve in a matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Boise State.

The pregame narrative: Penn State had its way with SMU in the first round of the playoff, and I think the Nittany Lions’ defence will show up again in the quarterfinals. My +275 SGP includes a teased-up under, an Ashton Jeanty fade and a prop bet tailing Tyler Warren.

Check out my top Penn State vs. Boise State predictions for this quarterfinal CFP matchup on Dec. 31.

Penn State vs. Boise State predictions

Go to full college football betting markets

Embed: #104613

Parlay: Under 57.5 points + Jeanty under 139.5 rushing yards + Warren 60+ receiving yards (+275)

Under 57.5 points (-200): This is a lot of points, especially with one of college football’s top defences on the field.

  • Penn State ranks inside the top five in both yards allowed (280.1/game) and points allowed (15.7/game).
  • The Nittany Lions went under this total in 10 of 14 games.

In fairness, Boise State scored a boatload of points this year (39.1 PPG, third in FBS). But the Broncos played in the defensively inept Mountain West Conference.

Boise had the 84th-ranked strength of schedule out of 134 teams, per ESPN. That’s easily the weakest of the CFP field.

Also, the Broncos went under this total in six of their past eight games.

Other parlay picks

Jeanty under 139.5 rushing yards (-157): I’ve faded Jeanty before and it blew up in my face. If he fools me twice, the shame is all mine.

Jeanty put up absurd numbers this season, stampeding for 192.1 rush yards per game en route to a runner-up finish in the Heisman Trophy vote.

With that in mind, how could I possibly fade him at this number?

Well, Penn State’s defence is a hell of a lot different than what he’s accustomed to seeing.

  • PSU ranks 6th in defensive EPA per rush, according to gameonpaper.com.
  • Only one of Boise’s opponents ranked inside the top 80 for defensive EPA per rush (UNLV, 38th), and none ranked inside the top 30.
  • PSU has only allowed one 100-yard rusher this season (USC’s Jo’quavious Marks, 111 yards).

The Broncos are double-digit underdogs, which means a negative game script is likely. Jeanty should be very heavily involved no matter what, but I like the Nittany Lions’ chances of selling out and keeping him below his usual yardage.

Warren 60+ receiving yards (-235): At 6-foot-6 and 261 pounds, Warren presents a size mismatch from the tight end position that I don’t think Boise will be able to handle.

Warren is coming off a down week in a blowout win (four catches, 33 yards), but the Nittany Lions should be looking his way on Tuesday night.

Boise State has allowed 256.6 passing yards per game this season. That’s 113th in the country.

Prior to his quiet showing in the CFP first round, Warren cashed this bet in five straight games.

The winner of the Mackey Award — given to college football’s top tight end — has averaged 7.7 catches and 89.6 yards over his past seven games.

Picks made at 3:05 p.m. on 12/29/24.

Falcons vs. Commanders Week 17 SNF prop picks: Michael Penix is worth backing on Sunday Night Football

Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks

Two exciting rookie quarterbacks take the field for Sunday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons face the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Michael Penix Jr. is back under centre for the Falcons after making his first NFL start last weekend. I’m backing him to clear a modest yardage total as my best bet, and I expect Terry McLaurin to continue producing for the Commanders.

Check out my Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 29.

Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks

Go to full NFL betting markets

Best Bet: Penix over 197.5 passing yards (-118)

Penix made his first NFL start last week, and it wasn’t great. But it wasn’t terrible, either, and his efficiency was an encouraging takeaway.

The eighth-overall pick completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 202 yards. He didn’t throw any TD passes, but he averaged a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt — identical to Joe Burrow’s career average.

You never know exactly what you’ll get out of a rookie, and Sunday night will be the first road start of his career. But I believe in Penix’s pedigree after an epic college career.

Prior to becoming a top-10 NFL draft pick, Penix threw for nearly 5,000 yards in his final collegiate season — en route to a Heisman runner-up finish.

He knows how to sling it, and Atlanta might need him to do more of that as a road underdog.

In a game script that should encourage passing, 200 yards isn’t much to ask for from an NFL quarterback. As long as he’s in the ballpark of 30-ish pass attempts, I like this prop bet a lot.

Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards this year, but that’s because it’s also faced the third-fewest pass attempts.

From an efficiency standpoint, the Commanders are a nice matchup for opposing QBs.

Key stat: The Commanders rank 24th in defensive EPA per dropback and 16th in defensive dropback success rate, per rbsdm.com.

Quick pick

McLaurin over 64.5 receiving yards (-118): Last week, McLaurin secured his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He also hit the 60-yard milestone for the fourth game in a row.

McLaurin is the clear-cut top target in Washington’s high-octane offence. The Commanders rank fourth in scoring and fifth in yardage.

As for McLaurin, he’s 18 catches and almost 500 yards ahead of any of his teammates in the stat department.

Simply put, this isn’t a huge total for a WR1. Atlanta has allowed 13 players to hit the 60-yard mark over its past 10 games.

Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET 12/29/2024.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop picks Dec. 29: Bet on Trae Young, Gradey Dick to fill the net

Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets

The Toronto Raptors face the Atlanta Hawks for the first time this season in Sunday’s highest-projected scoring matchup.

The pregame narrative: At a projected over/under hovering near 240 points, both teams should light up the box score at Scotiabank Arena. I’m backing one shooter from each side — Gradey Dick and Trae Young — to do just that.

Check out my Hawks vs. Raptors prop picks for Dec. 29.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best Bet: Dick over 2.5 threes (-112)

Atlanta is truly 1-of-1 as a matchup for opposing 3-point shooters.

  • Most made 3s allowed (16.0/game)
  • Most attempted 3s allowed (41.6/game)
  • 2nd-highest 3PT% (38.4)

Atlanta allows a league-high volume of 3-pointers at a sky-high efficiency. This is a dream for anyone who likes to fire from deep.

And Dick is one of those guys, hoisting 7.1 threes per game this season. The second-year shooting guard is a full-time starter, and his shot volume has essentially doubled compared to his rookie campaign.

Since the start of December, Dick has attempted 7.4 threes per game and cashed 2.8 of them. Those numbers both pace the Raptors.

Last year, Dick went 6-for-13 (46.2%) from beyond the arc over three matchups against the Hawks. He came off the bench in each of those games and only cleared this prop once.

As a starter and the team’s top gunner from 3-point range, I expect Dick to fire away freely against Atlanta tonight.

Key stat: Dick has gone over 2.5 threes in seven of his past 12 games, averaging 2.7 makes in that span.

Quick pick

Young over 23.5 points (-118): Young has cut back on shooting and is taking his facilitating game to new heights. But in what should be a high-scoring matchup, this is still a number he can clear.

The NBA’s assists leader (12.2 APG) has 27-plus points in three of his past five games.

He may not be shooting as much from the field — averaging 16.7 FGA, his fewest since 2018-19 — but Young is still in the league’s top 20 for free throw attempts (6.6/game).

Toronto yields the most free throw attempts per game to its opponents.

Last season, Young hit the 30-point mark in three of four matchups against the Raptors.

Picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET 12/29/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 29: Expect big things from Chris Paul, Zach Edey

NBA prop bets

Sunday’s NBA prop bets feature Jaylen Brown, Zach Edey and Chris Paul.

The pregame narrative: These three players are all different sizes, and I’m backing them in different ways on the prop market. I like the over for Brown’s point total, Edey’s rebound total and Paul’s assist total.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 29.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Edey over 8.5 rebounds (-130)

Ja Morant is out tonight, which means the Memphis Grizzlies will be down a solid rebounding guard. But this pick has a lot more to do with the Grizzlies’ opponent.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are among the very worst rebounding teams in the NBA.

  • 2nd-most rebounds allowed
  • 4th-most rebounds allowed to centres
  • 4th-worst rebounding rate

Maybe it’ll look okay for the Thunder when both of their 7-footers, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, are healthy simultaneously. But that hasn’t happened yet, which has shone a bright light on the lack of size elsewhere on the roster.

Hartenstein is probably due for 10-plus rebounds tonight, but Edey should still grab his share. He’s been impressively active on the glass since returning from an ankle injury.

Edey has gone over 8.5 rebounds in four of six games since his return. That includes a career-high 16 rebounds on Boxing Day against the Raptors — a top-10 team in rebounding rate.

OKC presents a much cushier matchup for the Toronto native, and I expect him to make the most of it.

Key stat: Edey is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game in his past six matchups.

Quick picks

Brown over 25.5 points (-108): The Indiana Pacers tend to play fast and loose, and Brown is known to take advantage of it.

This season, Indiana has played at the seventh-fastest pace while posting the eighth-worst defensive rating. Put that together, and you get a team allowing the ninth-most points per game.

Brown’s Boston Celtics saw the Pacers just two days ago, and he finished with 44 points on 16-of-24 shooting.

In his past 10 games against Indiana — dating back to December 2023 — Brown has averaged 31.4 PPG and cashed this bet seven times.

Paul over 7.5 assists (-106): It’s Year 20 in Paul’s esteemed NBA career, and he can still dish the rock at a high level.

The five-time assist champ is averaging 8.2 assists this season while starting all 31 games for the San Antonio Spurs. He’s down to a career-low 7.5 field goal attempts per game, ensuring that passing is a priority.

Paul has gone over 7.5 assists in nine of his past 12 games overall. He’s also cashed this bet in both matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Minnesota is a stout defensive team, but this isn’t a big ask from San Antonio’s pass-happy floor general.

Picks made at 1:04 p.m. ET on 12/29/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 29: Expect big things from Chris Paul, Zach Edey

NBA prop bets

Sunday’s NBA prop bets feature Jaylen Brown, Zach Edey and Chris Paul.

The pregame narrative: These three players are all different sizes, and I’m backing them in different ways on the prop market. I like the over for Brown’s point total, Edey’s rebound total and Paul’s assist total.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 29.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104572

Best bet: Edey over 8.5 rebounds (-121)

Ja Morant is out tonight, which means the Memphis Grizzlies will be down a solid rebounding guard. But this pick has a lot more to do with the Grizzlies’ opponent.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are among the very worst rebounding teams in the NBA.

  • 2nd-most rebounds allowed
  • 4th-most rebounds allowed to centres
  • 4th-worst rebounding rate

Maybe it’ll look okay for the Thunder when both of their 7-footers, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, are healthy simultaneously. But that hasn’t happened yet, which has shone a bright light on the lack of size elsewhere on the roster.

Hartenstein is probably due for 10-plus rebounds tonight, but Edey should still grab his share. He’s been impressively active on the glass since returning from an ankle injury.

Edey has gone over 8.5 rebounds in four of six games since his return. That includes a career-high 16 rebounds on Boxing Day against the Raptors — a top-10 team in rebounding rate.

OKC presents a much cushier matchup for the Toronto native, and I expect him to make the most of it.

Key stat: Edey is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game in his past six matchups.

Quick picks

Brown over 25.5 points (-121): The Indiana Pacers tend to play fast and loose, and Brown is known to take advantage of it.

This season, Indiana has played at the seventh-fastest pace while posting the eighth-worst defensive rating. Put that together, and you get a team allowing the ninth-most points per game.

Brown’s Boston Celtics saw the Pacers just two days ago, and he finished with 44 points on 16-of-24 shooting.

In his past 10 games against Indiana — dating back to December 2023 — Brown has averaged 31.4 PPG and cashed this bet seven times.

Paul over 7.5 assists (-120): It’s Year 20 in Paul’s esteemed NBA career, and he can still dish the rock at a high level.

The five-time assist champ is averaging 8.2 assists this season while starting all 31 games for the San Antonio Spurs. He’s down to a career-low 7.5 field goal attempts per game, ensuring that passing is a priority.

Paul has gone over 7.5 assists in nine of his past 12 games overall. He’s also cashed this bet in both matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Minnesota is a stout defensive team, but this isn’t a big ask from San Antonio’s pass-happy floor general.

Picks made at 11:04 a.m. ET on 12/29/2024.

Lions vs. 49ers Week 17 MNF prop picks: Bet on a big game from Gibbs, fade Kittle

Lions vs. 49ers prop picks

Jahmyr Gibbs made the most of an increased workload last weekend, and I expect more of the same on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Detroit Lions’ star running back is featured in my best bet with a lofty but attainable scrimmage yards total. Additionally, I’m fading San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle in a discouraging matchup.

Check out my Lions vs. 49ers prop picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 30.

Lions vs. 49ers prop picks

Go to full NFL betting markets

Embed: #104580

Best Bet: Gibbs over 128.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)

This is the type of yardage total LaDainian Tomlinson probably would’ve seen in his prime. But it’s warranted, given Gibbs’ outsized opportunity in an elite offence.

With David Montgomery, Gibbs formed part of the best running back tandem behind the NFL’s top offensive line. Now that Montgomery is on the shelf with a knee injury, more touches are flowing to the second-year RB.

Last week — his first without Montgomery — Gibbs saw a season-high 27 touches. He turned that into 154 yards and a touchdown.

Gibbs has always been efficient. His 6.3 yards per touch ranks second out of 52 tailbacks with 90-plus touches.

At his current average, he needs roughly 21 touches on a weekly basis to cash this bet. And his 27-touch performance last Sunday without Montgomery is an indication that volume shouldn’t be an issue.

Detroit still has plenty to play for, too. A win positions the Lions to claim the top seed in the NFC, along with a coveted first-round bye.

Gibbs has 22 targets in the past four games, and now his carry count is trending up. This is a hefty number, but it’s one he can absolutely clear with a backfield to himself.

Key stat: In four career games without Montgomery, Gibbs has averaged 137.8 scrimmage yards.

Quick pick

Kittle under 69.5 receiving yards (-115): Kittle has topped 100 receiving yards in two of his past three games, so this might not feel like the right time to fade him. But matchups matter, at least to me, and this is a rough one.

Detroit has allowed league lows in catches (3.7/game) and yards (35.2/game) to opposing tight ends, per Pro Football Reference. By Rotowire’s measure, the Lions are the toughest matchup for TEs.

Kittle has gone under 69.5 receiving yards in seven of 13 games this year. Unsurprisingly, five of those seven unders were against top-20 TE defences.

Now he’ll face the toughest TE defence of all, and he looks well worth a fade.

Picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET 12/29/2024.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop picks Dec. 29: Bet on Trae Young, Gradey Dick to fill the net

Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets

The Toronto Raptors face the Atlanta Hawks for the first time this season in Sunday’s highest-projected scoring matchup.

The pregame narrative: At a projected over/under hovering near 240 points, both teams should light up the box score at Scotiabank Arena. I’m backing one shooter from each side — Gradey Dick and Trae Young — to do just that.

Check out my Hawks vs. Raptors prop picks for Dec. 29.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104567

Best Bet: Dick over 2.5 threes (-104)

Atlanta is truly 1-of-1 as a matchup for opposing 3-point shooters.

  • Most made 3s allowed (16.0/game)
  • Most attempted 3s allowed (41.6/game)
  • 2nd-highest 3PT% (38.4)

Atlanta allows a league-high volume of 3-pointers at a sky-high efficiency. This is a dream for anyone who likes to fire from deep.

And Dick is one of those guys, hoisting 7.1 threes per game this season. The second-year shooting guard is a full-time starter, and his shot volume has essentially doubled compared to his rookie campaign.

Since the start of December, Dick has attempted 7.4 threes per game and cashed 2.8 of them. Those numbers both pace the Raptors.

Last year, Dick went 6-for-13 (46.2%) from beyond the arc over three matchups against the Hawks. He came off the bench in each of those games and only cleared this prop once.

As a starter and the team’s top gunner from 3-point range, I expect Dick to fire away freely against Atlanta tonight.

Key stat: Dick has gone over 2.5 threes in seven of his past 12 games, averaging 2.7 makes in that span.

Quick pick

Young over 22.5 points (-122): Young has cut back on shooting and is taking his facilitating game to new heights. But in what should be a high-scoring matchup, this is still a number he can clear.

The NBA’s assists leader (12.2 APG) has 23-plus points in four of his past five games.

He may not be shooting as much from the field — averaging 16.7 FGA, his fewest since 2018-19 — but Young is still in the league’s top 20 for free throw attempts (6.6/game).

Toronto yields the most free throw attempts per game to its opponents.

Last season, Young hit the 30-point mark in three of four matchups against the Raptors.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 12/29/2024.