In the final College Football Playoff matchup of the quarterfinal round, the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl.
The pregame narrative: Jeremiyah Love has produced all year for the Irish, and I think he’ll find the end zone once again on Wednesday. My +320 SGP also includes an alt spread in Notre Dame’s favour and a fade of Georgia receiver Dillon Bell.
Check out my top Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions for this quarterfinal CFP matchup on Jan. 1.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions
Editor’s note: Notre Dame vs. Georgia, originally scheduled for Jan. 1, was postponed to Jan. 2.
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Parlay: Notre Dame +3.5 + Love anytime TD + Bell under 34.5 receiving yards (+320)
Notre Dame +3.5 (-177): My moneyline lean is with Notre Dame, so I’m perfectly content to back the Fighting Irish with a field goal and a hook.
Notre Dame is 10-2-1 ATS this season, which is the third-best mark in Division I. The team covered this number in every game, posting an average point differential of +25.0 points.
Georgia went just 4-9 ATS and failed to cover a -3.5 spread five times — including back-to-back games entering the Sugar Bowl.
With Carson Beck sidelined, Georgia has to turn to an unproven quarterback, Gunner Stockton. The sophomore has just 51 career pass attempts.
By comparison, Notre Dame is led by senior QB Riley Leonard, who’s in his third year as a starter.
In a game of this magnitude, I’d rather hitch my wagon to Leonard and his experience over the uncertainty of Stockton.
Other parlay picks
Love anytime TD (-121): This looks like a great pick as a straight wager, and it fits in well with my belief that ND can at least hang around against Georgia.
Love isn’t a workhorse back, per se, as he averages 12.8 touches per game. But he always seems to give the Irish their money’s worth.
In 13 games, Love has 18 total touchdowns. And he’s cashed this bet in every matchup.
Against Indiana in the first round of the CFP, Love galloped for a 98-yard score to set the tone early.
Don’t let Georgia’s reputation of stout defence fool you. This year’s squad has been good, but not great:
- 51st in rush EPA/play
- 42nd in rush success rate
- 30th in rush yards/attempt
Bell under 34.5 receiving yards (-195): My wariness about Stockton extends to Georgia’s pass-catchers, and I think Bell is a worthwhile player to fade on Wednesday night.
Bell averaged 36.1 yards this year and went under 34.5 yards in eight of 12 games. So unless he’s seeing a particularly encouraging matchup, this is already an iffy line to take the over on.
Notre Dame is far from an encouraging matchup for Bell, given that the Irish rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per pass, according to gameonpaper.com.
The Irish were the only team in the country to hold opponents to a sub-50.0% completion percentage, and they also allowed just 5.6 yards per attempt (third in the NCAA).
Georgia should struggle to move the ball through the air, making this a very attainable under for Bell.
Picks made at 11:05 a.m. on 01/01/25.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.