Sunday’s NBA prop bets feature Jaylen Brown, Zach Edey and Chris Paul.
The pregame narrative: These three players are all different sizes, and I’m backing them in different ways on the prop market. I like the over for Brown’s point total, Edey’s rebound total and Paul’s assist total.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 29.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Edey over 8.5 rebounds (-121)
Ja Morant is out tonight, which means the Memphis Grizzlies will be down a solid rebounding guard. But this pick has a lot more to do with the Grizzlies’ opponent.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are among the very worst rebounding teams in the NBA.
- 2nd-most rebounds allowed
- 4th-most rebounds allowed to centres
- 4th-worst rebounding rate
Maybe it’ll look okay for the Thunder when both of their 7-footers, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, are healthy simultaneously. But that hasn’t happened yet, which has shone a bright light on the lack of size elsewhere on the roster.
Hartenstein is probably due for 10-plus rebounds tonight, but Edey should still grab his share. He’s been impressively active on the glass since returning from an ankle injury.
Edey has gone over 8.5 rebounds in four of six games since his return. That includes a career-high 16 rebounds on Boxing Day against the Raptors — a top-10 team in rebounding rate.
OKC presents a much cushier matchup for the Toronto native, and I expect him to make the most of it.
Key stat: Edey is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game in his past six matchups.
Quick picks
Brown over 25.5 points (-121): The Indiana Pacers tend to play fast and loose, and Brown is known to take advantage of it.
This season, Indiana has played at the seventh-fastest pace while posting the eighth-worst defensive rating. Put that together, and you get a team allowing the ninth-most points per game.
Brown’s Boston Celtics saw the Pacers just two days ago, and he finished with 44 points on 16-of-24 shooting.
In his past 10 games against Indiana — dating back to December 2023 — Brown has averaged 31.4 PPG and cashed this bet seven times.
Paul over 7.5 assists (-120): It’s Year 20 in Paul’s esteemed NBA career, and he can still dish the rock at a high level.
The five-time assist champ is averaging 8.2 assists this season while starting all 31 games for the San Antonio Spurs. He’s down to a career-low 7.5 field goal attempts per game, ensuring that passing is a priority.
Paul has gone over 7.5 assists in nine of his past 12 games overall. He’s also cashed this bet in both matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota is a stout defensive team, but this isn’t a big ask from San Antonio’s pass-happy floor general.
Picks made at 11:04 a.m. ET on 12/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.