Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Falcons vs. Commanders Week 17 SNF prop picks: Michael Penix is worth backing on Sunday Night Football

Two exciting rookie quarterbacks take the field for Sunday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons face the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Michael Penix Jr. is back under centre for the Falcons after making his first NFL start last weekend. I’m backing him to clear a modest yardage total as my best bet, and I expect Terry McLaurin to continue producing for the Commanders.

Check out my Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 29.

Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks

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Best Bet: Penix 200+ passing yards (-121)

Penix made his first NFL start last week, and it wasn’t great. But it wasn’t terrible, either, and his efficiency was an encouraging takeaway.

The eighth-overall pick completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 202 yards. He didn’t throw any TD passes, but he averaged a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt — identical to Joe Burrow’s career average.

You never know exactly what you’ll get out of a rookie, and Sunday night will be the first road start of his career. But I believe in Penix’s pedigree after an epic college career.

Prior to becoming a top-10 NFL draft pick, Penix threw for nearly 5,000 yards in his final collegiate season — en route to a Heisman runner-up finish.

He knows how to sling it, and Atlanta might need him to do more of that as a road underdog.

In a game script that should encourage passing, 200 yards isn’t much to ask for from an NFL quarterback. As long as he’s in the ballpark of 30-ish pass attempts, I like this prop bet a lot.

Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards this year, but that’s because it’s also faced the third-fewest pass attempts.

From an efficiency standpoint, the Commanders are a nice matchup for opposing QBs.

Key stat: The Commanders rank 24th in defensive EPA per dropback and 16th in defensive dropback success rate, per rbsdm.com.

Quick pick

McLaurin 60+ receiving yards (-136): Last week, McLaurin secured his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He also hit the 60-yard milestone for the fourth game in a row.

McLaurin is the clear-cut top target in Washington’s high-octane offence. The Commanders rank fourth in scoring and fifth in yardage.

As for McLaurin, he’s 18 catches and almost 500 yards ahead of any of his teammates in the stat department.

Simply put, 60 yards isn’t much for a WR1. Atlanta has allowed 13 players to hit the 60-yard mark over its past 10 games.

Picks made at 3:24 p.m. ET 12/28/2024.

Packers vs. Vikings Week 17 same-game parlay predictions: Ride with Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs in +310 SGP

Two parts of the NFC North’s three-headed monster do battle on Sunday afternoon, as the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers.

The pregame narrative: A pair of running backs provide the backbone for my +310 SGP, as I’m looking for both Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones to make a positive impact. A teased-down over rounds out the ticket.

Check out my Packers vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions for Week 14 below.

Packers vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Over 42.5 points + Jacobs anytime TD + Jones over 88.5 rushing/receiving yards (+310)

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Over 42.5 points (-250): Whether you’re hip to the Toyotathon memes or not, just know that Jordan Love has the Packers’ offence revved up right now.

Green Bay has scored 30-plus points in five straight games, and this over is 4-1 in that span.

Minnesota has hit this over in four of its past five games, too, with an average total of 51.6 points.

Back in September, these teams combined for 60 points in a narrow victory for the Vikings. They’re now 7-2 against this number in matchups since the 2020 season.

Other parlay picks

Jacobs anytime TD (-177): Jacobs has enjoyed a Pro Bowl-calibre season, which includes a career-high 14 touchdowns in 15 games.

He’s a workhorse in the red zone, justifying a hearty workload with ample success.

Check out Jacobs’ productivity since Week 8:

12 TDs
1+ TDs in 7/8 games
2+ carries inside the 5-yard line in 5/8 games
3.4 carries/game inside the 10-yard line

Jacobs didn’t score against the Vikings in their Week 4 meeting, and he didn’t touch the ball even once inside the 10-yard line on that day.

But throughout the season, Green Bay has altered its red zone identity. Jacobs is now at the centre, and he’ll have a great chance to score.

Jones over 88.5 rushing/receiving yards (-113): Round 1 of Jones’ revenge opportunity against the Packers went really well, and I think he can produce again.

Jones, who spent seven seasons in Titletown, put up 139 scrimmage yards on 26 touches his first time facing Green Bay.

That included four catches for 46 yards, and it’d be no surprise to see Jones capitalize as a receiver again. The Packers have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.

Touchdowns have been tricky to come by for Jones this season, but he’s still churning for big yardage.

He’s cashed this bet in nine of 15 games while averaging 92.9 yards.

Picks made at 1:58 p.m. on 12/28/24.

BYU vs. Colorado best bet: Back the Buffaloes in Alamo Bowl

The No. 23 Colorado Buffaloes face the No. 17 BYU Cougars on Saturday night in the most anticipated non-playoff bowl game of the season.

The pregame narrative: With two ranked squads, a Heisman Trophy winner and very few opt-outs, the Alamo Bowl is must-see TV for college football fans. I’m backing Colorado to cover as the favourite.

Check out my BYU vs. Colorado best bet for the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.

BYU vs. Colorado best bet

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Best bet: Colorado -2.5 (-134)

The spotlight on Colorado wasn’t as bright this season as in Deion Sanders’ first year as head coach, yet the results for the Buffaloes were far better. Funny how that works.

If not for a late-season slip-up against Kansas, the Buffaloes might’ve been the Big 12’s entrant into the College Football Playoff.

BYU was also in CFP contention, but Colorado’s recent form has me siding with the Buffaloes on Saturday.

Led by Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado has two potential top-five NFL draft picks on the field. Also, the Buffs went 9-1 ATS down the stretch and rank better in EPA per play (22nd) than BYU (41st), per gameonpaper.com.

In their most recent game, the Buffs demolished Oklahoma State, 52-0. BYU snuck by Oklahoma State, 38-35, earlier this season.

Key stat: Colorado covered the spread in six of its final seven games as a favourite.

Pick made at 12:45 p.m. on 12/28/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 28: Take overs on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox

A pair of talented point guards headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP-calibre pace, and I believe he can stay hot on the road tonight. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to hit a reasonable scoring target and fade Jerami Grant amid a cold streak.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 28.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 35.5 points/rebounds (-120)

Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two players leading the charge in the MVP conversation, and he’s certainly playing up to that billing right now.

The superstar point guard has put up blistering numbers over his past 13 games, including:

34.2 points/game
6.3 rebounds/game
53.4 FG%

With an average of 40.5 PR in that span, Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared this line consistently. On Saturday, I don’t expect much resistance from the Charlotte Hornets.

Charlotte’s issues stem more from the offensive side than on defence, but the team is still subpar in terms of defensive rating (20th).

Also, the Hornets allow the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing point guards (6.7), per Betting Pros.

There are better matchups out there for a guy like SGA, but this one’s good enough that I expect he’ll continue wreaking havoc.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 35.5 points/rebounds in nine of his past 13 games.

Quick picks

Grant under 13.5 points (-118): Tonight marks the third time this month that the Portland Trail Blazers will face the Dallas Mavericks. And I’m expecting another dud from Grant.

On Dec. 1, Grant finished with 14 points on 4-of-10 shooting against Dallas. He followed that up with just three points on 1-of-7 shooting on Dec. 23.

Grant is averaging 15.0 PPG on the season, but his recent production has been a step below that.

In 16 games since Nov. 13, Grant has averaged 12.6 PPG and hit this under nine times.

Fox over 25.5 points (-118): The Sacramento Kings are having a weird one, after a questionable firing of head coach Mike Brown, but that shouldn’t affect Fox’s steady production as a scorer.

Fox is on his way to averaging 25-plus points for the fourth time in five seasons.

He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five games.

Furthermore, the Kings’ point guard is a reliable bucket-getter against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll see tonight.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Fox has averaged 30.4 PPG against the Lakers in 11 matchups. He has 26-plus points in all three prior meetings this year.

Picks made at 12:34 p.m. ET on 12/28/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 28: Take overs on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox

A pair of talented point guards headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP-calibre pace, and I believe he can stay hot on the road tonight. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to hit a reasonable scoring target and fade Jerami Grant amid a cold streak.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 28.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 35.5 points/rebounds (-124)

Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two players leading the charge in the MVP conversation, and he’s certainly playing up to that billing right now.

The superstar point guard has put up blistering numbers over his past 13 games, including:

34.2 points/game
6.3 rebounds/game
53.4 FG%

With an average of 40.5 PR in that span, Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared this line consistently. On Saturday, I don’t expect much resistance from the Charlotte Hornets.

Charlotte’s issues stem more from the offensive side than on defence, but the team is still subpar in terms of defensive rating (20th).

Also, the Hornets allow the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing point guards (6.7), per Betting Pros.

There are better matchups out there for a guy like SGA, but this one’s good enough that I expect he’ll continue wreaking havoc.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 35.5 points/rebounds in nine of his past 13 games.

Quick picks

Grant under 14.5 points (-109): Tonight marks the third time this month that the Portland Trail Blazers will face the Dallas Mavericks. And I’m expecting another dud from Grant.

On Dec. 1, Grant finished with 14 points on 4-of-10 shooting against Dallas. He followed that up with just three points on 1-of-7 shooting on Dec. 23.

Grant is averaging 15.0 PPG on the season, but his recent production has been a step below that.

In 16 games since Nov. 13, Grant has averaged 12.6 PPG and hit this under 12 times.

Fox over 24.5 points (-137): The Sacramento Kings are having a weird one, after a questionable firing of head coach Mike Brown, but that shouldn’t affect Fox’s steady production as a scorer.

Fox is on his way to averaging 25-plus points for the fourth time in five seasons.

He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five games.

Furthermore, the Kings’ point guard is a reliable bucket-getter against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll see tonight.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Fox has averaged 30.4 PPG against the Lakers in 11 matchups. He has 25-plus points in all three prior meetings this year.

Picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 12/28/2024.

BYU vs. Colorado same-game parlay predictions: Fade Travis Hunter but back the Buffs in Alamo Bowl

The No. 23 Colorado Buffaloes face the No. 17 BYU Cougars on Saturday night in the most anticipated non-playoff bowl game of the season.

The pregame narrative: With two ranked squads, a Heisman Trophy winner and very few opt-outs, the Alamo Bowl is must-see TV for college football fans. In my +335 SGP, I’m backing Colorado to win despite fading Travis Hunter.

Check out my top BYU vs. Colorado predictions for the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.

BYU vs. Colorado predictions

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Parlay: Colorado -2.5 + Hunter under 119.5 receiving yards + Martin 60+ rushing yards (+335)

Colorado -2.5 (-134): The spotlight on Colorado wasn’t as bright this season as in Deion Sanders’ first year as head coach, yet the results for the Buffaloes were far better. Funny how that works.

If not for a late-season slip-up against Kansas, the Buffaloes might’ve been the Big 12’s entrant into the College Football Playoff.

BYU was also in CFP contention, but Colorado’s recent form has me siding with the Buffaloes on Saturday.

Led by Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado has two potential top-five NFL draft picks on the field. Also, the Buffs went 9-1 ATS down the stretch and rank better in EPA per play (22nd) than BYU (41st), per gameonpaper.com.

In their most recent game, the Buffs demolished Oklahoma State, 52-0. BYU snuck by Oklahoma State, 38-35, earlier this season.

Other parlay picks

Hunter under 119.5 receiving yards (-195): Excuse me for making an obvious statement, but BYU should be throwing everything it has at Hunter in this matchup. The Heisman winner (and Biletnikoff winner) led the Big 12 with 92 catches and 14 receiving TDs.

The thing is, Hunter’s big-play capability doesn’t always translate to excessive volume.

Hunter averaged 96.0 receiving yards/game this season (12 games).

He went under 119.5 yards in six of his final eight matchups.

BYU’s defence is stronger against the pass than against the run. The Cougars rank 14th in defensive EPA per pass and 11th in yards per pass attempt.

Hunter can still have a nice game — and he’ll probably still score — without an explosive yardage total.

LJ Martin 60+ rushing yards (-335): This leg may seem pointless given all of its juice, but it actually bumps our SGP from +170 to +335. Martin should absolutely hit this yardage total — even if BYU faces a negative game script on Saturday.

Last time out, Martin carried the ball a season-high 22 times. He turned that into 87 yards, which isn’t spectacular but would obviously get the job done.

On the season, Martin has averaged 70.0 rush yards. He cashed this bet in six of eight games that weren’t shortened by injury.

Like BYU, Colorado is better at defending the pass. The Buffs rank 12th in defensive EPA per pass and 70th in defensive EPA per rush.

Picks made at 10:05 a.m. on 12/28/24.

College football bowl schedule and odds 2024-25: Betting trends for NCAAF bowl games

The excitement for an expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff has been palpable. But let’s not forget about all the non-playoff bowl games, either.

The NCAA bowl season features 35 non-playoff bowl games from mid-December through early January. It’s an onslaught of action before college football is shuttered for the year — so don’t miss out.

Check out the college football bowl schedule and betting notes for the action, which runs from Dec. 14 through Jan 4.

College football bowl schedule: 2024-25

Editor’s note: Notre Dame vs. Georgia, originally scheduled for Jan. 1, was postponed to Jan. 2

Go to full college football bowl markets. Click on the game odds below to bet now. All times ET.

Jan. 1

Peach Bowl (CFP): Texas Longhorns vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

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Rose Bowl (CFP): Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

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Jan. 2

Gator Bowl: Duke Blue Devils vs. Ole Miss Rebels

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Sugar Bowl (CFP): Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs

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Want more college football bowl odds? Full NCAAF markets.

NCAAF betting notes

If you stop Cam Skattebo, you stop the Sun Devils. Skattebo has 22 TDs and over 2,000 scrimmage yards this season. No other ASU player has more than five TDs or 515 scrimmage yards. Skattebo is up against a daunting task, as the Longhorns defence ranks No. 2 in scoring (13.3 PPG) and yards allowed (261.4/game).

It’s a rematch at the Rose Bowl, as Ohio State looks to avenge a one-point road loss against Oregon from Oct. 12. The Buckeyes were marching in the closing seconds but ran out of time, losing 32-31. The Ducks are the nation’s only unbeaten team, and they beat a strong Penn State squad last time out in the Big Ten championship.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is officially out for the Sugar Bowl, but the Bulldogs are still in pick’em territory against Notre Dame. Sophomore Gunner Stockton, a former four-star recruit, will start for UGA. Stockton completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards and an interception in relief of Beck during the SEC championship game.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 21: Bet on Jeremy Sochan, Jayson Tatum to fill the net

An MVP candidate and the NBA assists leader account for two of my three prop bets on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum tends to feast against the Chicago Bulls, and I think his points prop is set too low for tonight’s matchup. Elsewhere, I’m fading Trae Young against a scrappy Memphis Grizzlies squad and looking for decent production from Jeremy Sochan.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 21.

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Best bet: Sochan over 14.5 points (-134)

In his third NBA season, Sochan has cut way down on 3-point shots and enjoyed a nice bump in his overall scoring production.

From 3.1 attempted 3s last year, Sochan is down to just 1.6 this season. He’s committed to making hay at the rim — and it’s paying off.

Sochan is averaging 15.1 PPG in Year 3 after an 11.3 PPG average over his first two seasons.

This year, the power forward attempts 65% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s in the 100th percentile among NBA players.

He’s scored 15+ points in three straight games.

Tonight’s matchup is a solid one for Sochan, who sees the Portland Trail Blazers for the second time this month. Portland allows the fourth-highest FG% around the rim (69.4%), so Sochan should be encouraged to remain active in that area.

Including his Dec. 13 matchup against Portland, Sochan has cashed this bet in four of his past five games in this matchup. That includes a 31-point performance when they last met in San Antonio in January.

Key stat: Sochan has scored 15-plus points in nine of 14 games this season.

Quick picks

Tatum over 26.5 points (-118): This line is at least a point or two lower than I’d expect it to be, and that makes it look like a great value.

For one thing, Tatum’s track record against this number is very strong:

28.3 PPG this season
26+ points in 17/25 games

Also, tonight’s Celtics/Bulls game has the highest projected total of the entire NBA slate (245 points). Boston has the No. 3 offensive rating in the league, while Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Tatum has scored 28.9 PPG over nine matchups against the Bulls. He’s scored 30-plus points in both meetings this year.

Young under 11.5 assists (-138): Young leads the NBA in assists this season.

But he’s been productive on the glass and as a distributor, bringing in averages of 10.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists into tonight’s matchup. Both are just off his career-best marks.

Adebayo is staring down a plus matchup in that regard, as the Thunder rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most assists per game to centres.

The three-time all-star has cleared this line in seven of his last nine contests and is averaging 12.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists in seven December games.

Picks made at 2:42 p.m. ET on 12/21/2024.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State CFP same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Carnell Tate to shine, Buckeyes to cover in first round

The No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers and No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes square off in the final first-round matchup of the College Football Playoff.

The pregame narrative: Based on seedings and skill level, this should be the closest CFP game in the first round. Still, I think Ohio State will be capable of covering a modest spread at home, and I like both Carnell Tate and Dylan Sampson to rack up yards on offence.

Check out my top Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 21.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions

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Parlay: Ohio State -2.5 + Tate 40+ receiving yards + Sampson 80+ rushing yards (+275)

Ohio State -2.5 (-315): The last time Ohio State was on the field, things didn’t go so well.

The Buckeyes lost, 13-10, to unranked Michigan in their annual rivalry game. Ohio State showed more fight during a postgame flag-planting skirmish than it did during the 60-minute matchup.

It’s been three weeks since that disaster, and I haven’t forgotten how talented the Buckeyes are.

No. 1 in EPA per play, according to gameonpaper.com
No. 1 in scoring defence
No. 1 in total defence

Ohio State covered this spread in seven of eight home games, and I expect more of the same on Saturday night.

Tennessee was only a road underdog once this season. The Vols lost to Georgia, 31-17, as 7.5-point dogs.

Other parlay picks

Tate 40+ receiving yards (-152): Ohio State fell in love with establishing the run game against Michigan, and the strategy backfired royally.

If the Buckeyes don’t give their passing game more of a chance in this matchup, heads might roll in the coaching staff.

Ohio State boasts the top receiving corps in the country, with a trio of receivers that could by Day 1 NFL draftees in each of the next three years. One of those is Tate, a sophomore who’s been heavily involved in recent games:

50+ receiving yards in 5/6 games since Oct. 26
5.8 targets/game since Oct. 26
Season-high 10 targets last game

Freshman superstar Jeremiah Smith is the main attraction in Ohio State’s aerial attack. But Tate has carved out a nice role, and there should be enough work to go around.

Tennessee’s defence is strongest against the run. The Vols allow just 2.9 yards per rush, which is fifth in Division I football.

Sampson 80+ rushing yards (-215): Sampson was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Year for 2024, joining an esteemed list that includes players such as Joe Burrow, DeVonta Smith and Jayden Daniels.

The junior tailback is coming off his highest yardage output of the year: 178 yards on 25 carries. But he’s been a model of consistency and productivity all year.

90+ yards in 11/12 games
21.3 carries/game
123.8 yards/game

Ohio State’s defence is arguably the best in the nation, but Michigan put a run game blueprint on tape for Sampson and the Volunteers. Michigan ran for 172 yards against Ohio State, which is the most the Buckeyes have allowed all year.

Even if the Buckeyes stiffen at the line, this is a volume play. Sampson is simply too central to the Vols’ offensive plan.

Picks made at 2:05 p.m. on 12/21/24.

Pistons vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Dec. 21: Ride with Cade Cunningham and an alt over

In the final NBA matchup of the night, Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons visit the Phoenix Suns.

The pregame narrative: Detroit has upped its offensive game recently, and Cunningham is at the centre of it. For Saturday’s matchup, I have Cunningham and Jusuf Nurkic in a +230 SGP.

Check out my Pistons vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 21.

Pistons vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Over 219.5 points + Cunningham over 34.5 points/rebounds/assists + Nurkic under 10.5 rebounds (+230)

Over 219.5 points (-190): Detroit’s over/under record this year is an even split (14-14-0), but the team has played a more offence-friendly brand of hoops in recent weeks.

Over their past 10 games, the Pistons have the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA. The over is 7-3 in those matchups.

As for Phoenix, this is a number the team comfortably clears on the regular. At this point total, overs are 19-7 in Suns games this season.

Phoenix is ninth in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (59.6%).

SGP legs

Cunningham over 34.5 PRA (-240): He’s not always the most efficient shooter, but Cunningham is the Pistons’ top player. And he’s on a tear right now.

In 17 games since Nov. 4, check out what the former No. 1 overall pick has been up to:

23.8 points/game
8.0 rebounds/game
10.7 assists/game
Six triple-doubles
35+ PRA in 14/17 matchups

Phoenix allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros. But if Cunningham goes cold as a facilitator, I know he can affect the game in other ways.

On the season, Cunningham has a 30.0% usage rate. That ranks 11th among players and is in the same range as Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant.

Nurkic under 10.5 rebounds (-124): The Pistons are a solid rebounding team, and I don’t like this matchup for Nurkic.

Detroit allows …

8th-fewest rebounds per game
5th-fewest rebounds to opposing centres
7th-lowest rebound rate

At 7 feet, Nurkic is taller than anyone the Pistons will play against him in the post. But that’s not the only data point to consider, and Detroit has proven itself to be a tough team to rebound against.

Nurkic has gone under 10.5 rebounds in three of his past four games — and 11 of 19 on the year.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 12/21/24.