The No. 23 Colorado Buffaloes face the No. 17 BYU Cougars on Saturday night in the most anticipated non-playoff bowl game of the season.
The pregame narrative: With two ranked squads, a Heisman Trophy winner and very few opt-outs, the Alamo Bowl is must-see TV for college football fans. In my +335 SGP, I’m backing Colorado to win despite fading Travis Hunter.
Check out my top BYU vs. Colorado predictions for the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
BYU vs. Colorado predictions
Go to full college football betting markets
Parlay: Colorado -2.5 + Hunter under 119.5 receiving yards + Martin 60+ rushing yards (+335)
Colorado -2.5 (-134): The spotlight on Colorado wasn’t as bright this season as in Deion Sanders’ first year as head coach, yet the results for the Buffaloes were far better. Funny how that works.
If not for a late-season slip-up against Kansas, the Buffaloes might’ve been the Big 12’s entrant into the College Football Playoff.
BYU was also in CFP contention, but Colorado’s recent form has me siding with the Buffaloes on Saturday.
Led by Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado has two potential top-five NFL draft picks on the field. Also, the Buffs went 9-1 ATS down the stretch and rank better in EPA per play (22nd) than BYU (41st), per gameonpaper.com.
In their most recent game, the Buffs demolished Oklahoma State, 52-0. BYU snuck by Oklahoma State, 38-35, earlier this season.
Other parlay picks
Hunter under 119.5 receiving yards (-195): Excuse me for making an obvious statement, but BYU should be throwing everything it has at Hunter in this matchup. The Heisman winner (and Biletnikoff winner) led the Big 12 with 92 catches and 14 receiving TDs.
The thing is, Hunter’s big-play capability doesn’t always translate to excessive volume.
- Hunter averaged 96.0 receiving yards/game this season (12 games).
- He went under 119.5 yards in six of his final eight matchups.
BYU’s defence is stronger against the pass than against the run. The Cougars rank 14th in defensive EPA per pass and 11th in yards per pass attempt.
Hunter can still have a nice game — and he’ll probably still score — without an explosive yardage total.
LJ Martin 60+ rushing yards (-335): This leg may seem pointless given all of its juice, but it actually bumps our SGP from +170 to +335. Martin should absolutely hit this yardage total — even if BYU faces a negative game script on Saturday.
Last time out, Martin carried the ball a season-high 22 times. He turned that into 87 yards, which isn’t spectacular but would obviously get the job done.
On the season, Martin has averaged 70.0 rush yards. He cashed this bet in six of eight games that weren’t shortened by injury.
Like BYU, Colorado is better at defending the pass. The Buffs rank 12th in defensive EPA per pass and 70th in defensive EPA per rush.
Picks made at 10:05 a.m. on 12/28/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.