The No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers and No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes square off in the final first-round matchup of the College Football Playoff.
The pregame narrative: Based on seedings and skill level, this should be the closest CFP game in the first round. Still, I think Ohio State will be capable of covering a modest spread at home, and I like both Carnell Tate and Dylan Sampson to rack up yards on offence.
Check out my top Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 21.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions
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Parlay: Ohio State -2.5 + Tate 40+ receiving yards + Sampson 80+ rushing yards (+275)
Ohio State -2.5 (-315): The last time Ohio State was on the field, things didn’t go so well.
The Buckeyes lost, 13-10, to unranked Michigan in their annual rivalry game. Ohio State showed more fight during a postgame flag-planting skirmish than it did during the 60-minute matchup.
It’s been three weeks since that disaster, and I haven’t forgotten how talented the Buckeyes are.
- No. 1 in EPA per play, according to gameonpaper.com
- No. 1 in scoring defence
- No. 1 in total defence
Ohio State covered this spread in seven of eight home games, and I expect more of the same on Saturday night.
Tennessee was only a road underdog once this season. The Vols lost to Georgia, 31-17, as 7.5-point dogs.
Other parlay picks
Tate 40+ receiving yards (-152): Ohio State fell in love with establishing the run game against Michigan, and the strategy backfired royally.
If the Buckeyes don’t give their passing game more of a chance in this matchup, heads might roll in the coaching staff.
Ohio State boasts the top receiving corps in the country, with a trio of receivers that could by Day 1 NFL draftees in each of the next three years. One of those is Tate, a sophomore who’s been heavily involved in recent games:
- 50+ receiving yards in 5/6 games since Oct. 26
- 5.8 targets/game since Oct. 26
- Season-high 10 targets last game
Freshman superstar Jeremiah Smith is the main attraction in Ohio State’s aerial attack. But Tate has carved out a nice role, and there should be enough work to go around.
Tennessee’s defence is strongest against the run. The Vols allow just 2.9 yards per rush, which is fifth in Division I football.
Sampson 80+ rushing yards (-215): Sampson was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Year for 2024, joining an esteemed list that includes players such as Joe Burrow, DeVonta Smith and Jayden Daniels.
The junior tailback is coming off his highest yardage output of the year: 178 yards on 25 carries. But he’s been a model of consistency and productivity all year.
- 90+ yards in 11/12 games
- 21.3 carries/game
- 123.8 yards/game
Ohio State’s defence is arguably the best in the nation, but Michigan put a run game blueprint on tape for Sampson and the Volunteers. Michigan ran for 172 yards against Ohio State, which is the most the Buckeyes have allowed all year.
Even if the Buckeyes stiffen at the line, this is a volume play. Sampson is simply too central to the Vols’ offensive plan.
Picks made at 2:05 p.m. on 12/21/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.