An MVP candidate and the NBA assists leader account for two of my three prop bets on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum tends to feast against the Chicago Bulls, and I think his points prop is set too low for tonight’s matchup. Elsewhere, I’m fading Trae Young against a scrappy Memphis Grizzlies squad and looking for decent production from Jeremy Sochan.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 21.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Sochan over 14.5 points (-134)
In his third NBA season, Sochan has cut way down on 3-point shots and enjoyed a nice bump in his overall scoring production.
From 3.1 attempted 3s last year, Sochan is down to just 1.6 this season. He’s committed to making hay at the rim — and it’s paying off.
- Sochan is averaging 15.1 PPG in Year 3 after an 11.3 PPG average over his first two seasons.
- This year, the power forward attempts 65% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s in the 100th percentile among NBA players.
- He’s scored 15+ points in three straight games.
Tonight’s matchup is a solid one for Sochan, who sees the Portland Trail Blazers for the second time this month. Portland allows the fourth-highest FG% around the rim (69.4%), so Sochan should be encouraged to remain active in that area.
Including his Dec. 13 matchup against Portland, Sochan has cashed this bet in four of his past five games in this matchup. That includes a 31-point performance when they last met in San Antonio in January.
Key stat: Sochan has scored 15-plus points in nine of 14 games this season.
Quick picks
Tatum over 26.5 points (-118): This line is at least a point or two lower than I’d expect it to be, and that makes it look like a great value.
For one thing, Tatum’s track record against this number is very strong:
- 28.3 PPG this season
- 26+ points in 17/25 games
Also, tonight’s Celtics/Bulls game has the highest projected total of the entire NBA slate (245 points). Boston has the No. 3 offensive rating in the league, while Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Tatum has scored 28.9 PPG over nine matchups against the Bulls. He’s scored 30-plus points in both meetings this year.
Young under 11.5 assists (-138): Young leads the NBA in assists this season.
But he’s been productive on the glass and as a distributor, bringing in averages of 10.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists into tonight’s matchup. Both are just off his career-best marks.
Adebayo is staring down a plus matchup in that regard, as the Thunder rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most assists per game to centres.
The three-time all-star has cleared this line in seven of his last nine contests and is averaging 12.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists in seven December games.
Picks made at 2:42 p.m. ET on 12/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.