Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Clippers vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Dec. 21: Look for Powell, L.A. to cover as road underdogs

Luka Doncic will miss another matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Doncic was absent against the Clippers in L.A.’s comfortable win on Thursday. I’m backing the Clips to at least keep it close again tonight while looking for production from Kyrie Irving and Norman Powell in a +285 SGP.

Check out my Clippers vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 21.

Clippers vs. Mavericks predictions

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Parlay: Clippers +5.5 + Irving over 19.5 points + Powell over 3.5 threes (+300)

Clippers +5.5 (-143): Two nights ago, the Clippers routed the Doncic-less Mavericks, 118-95, in Dallas. Backing L.A. with points should be a no-brainer then, right?

I think so, though tonight’s rematch will include Irving on Dallas’ side, which should be a boon for the Mavs. That’s why I’ve tacked on a couple of extra points with the visitors.

At this number, I feel great about the Clippers. They’ve been one of the best ATS teams in the league, per Team Rankings:

18-10 ATS on the season (64.3%)
8-4 ATS as the road team

And remember, the Clippers beat the Mavericks on the road by 23 points just two nights ago. I don’t expect Irving to make enough of a difference for this pick to be a problem.

SGP legs

Irving over 19.5 points (-385): It’s fair to expect Irving to make some difference tonight, though, and a 20-point effort is perfectly attainable.

The eight-time all-star is averaging 23.9 PPG this season and has cashed this bet in 17 of 24 games.

Last year, Irving surpassed the 25-point threshold in both matchups against the Clippers — and that was with Doncic on the floor.

Without Doncic, Irving is averaging 25.7 PPG in six games. He finished with 19 points once and cashed this bet the other five times.

Powell over 3.5 threes (+114): Now for the riskiest pick of the bunch, which could also be a logical wager on its own.

Powell has arguably been the best 3-point shooter in the league this season, scoring at a 48.5% clip. That’s the highest 3PT% among all players averaging at least 5.0 attempts per game.

Over his past eight games, Powell has gone over 3.5 threes six times. He went 4-for-8 against Dallas on Thursday and should be encouraged to continue letting it fly.

Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 12/21/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 21: Bet on Jeremy Sochan, Jayson Tatum to fill the net

An MVP candidate and the NBA assists leader account for two of my three prop bets on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum tends to feast against the Chicago Bulls, and I think his points prop is set too low for tonight’s matchup. Elsewhere, I’m fading Trae Young against a scrappy Memphis Grizzlies squad and looking for decent production from Jeremy Sochan.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 21.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Sochan over 14.5 points (-121)

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In his third NBA season, Sochan has cut way down on 3-point shots and enjoyed a nice bump in his overall scoring production.

From 3.1 attempted 3s last year, Sochan is down to just 1.6 this season. He’s committed to making hay at the rim — and it’s paying off.

Sochan is averaging 15.1 PPG in Year 3 after an 11.3 PPG average over his first two seasons.

This year, the power forward attempts 65% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s in the 100th percentile among NBA players.

He’s scored 15+ points in three straight games.

Tonight’s matchup is a solid one for Sochan, who sees the Portland Trail Blazers for the second time this month. Portland allows the fourth-highest FG% around the rim (69.4%), so Sochan should be encouraged to remain active in that area.

Including his Dec. 13 matchup against Portland, Sochan has cashed this bet in four of his past five games in this matchup. That includes a 31-point performance when they last met in San Antonio in January.

Key stat: Sochan has scored 15-plus points in nine of 14 games this season.

Quick picks

Tatum over 25.5 points (-125): This line is at least two points lower than I’d expect it to be, and that makes it look like a great value.

For one thing, Tatum’s track record against this number is very strong:

28.3 PPG this season
26+ points in 17/25 games

Also, tonight’s Celtics/Bulls game has the highest projected total of the entire NBA slate (245 points). Boston has the No. 3 offensive rating in the league, while Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Tatum has scored 28.9 PPG over nine matchups against the Bulls. He’s scored 30-plus points in both meetings this year.

Young under 11.5 assists (-129): Young leads the NBA in assists this season.

But he’s been productive on the glass and as a distributor, bringing in averages of 10.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists into tonight’s matchup. Both are just off his career-best marks.

Adebayo is staring down a plus matchup in that regard, as the Thunder rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most assists per game to centres.

The three-time all-star has cleared this line in seven of his last nine contests and is averaging 12.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists in seven December games.

Picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 12/21/2024.

SMU vs. Penn State CFP same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Tyler Warren, fade Mustangs’ offence in +510 SGP

The No. 11 SMU Mustangs could be in for a rude awakening at Happy Valley against the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions.

The pregame narrative: A ferocious Penn State defence and some inclement weather have me fading SMU’s point total in this +510 SGP. I also have prop bets on Tyler Warren and Brashard Smith.

Check out my top SMU vs. Penn State predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 21.

SMU vs. Penn State predictions

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Parlay: SMU under 22.5 points + Warren anytime TD + Smith over 64.5 rushing yards (+510)

SMU under 22.5 points (-118): I don’t like to play the weather card too often, but SMU will be completely out of its element in central Pennsylvania.

Players are expected to be greeted by wind gusts, -10 C temperatures, and a light dusting of snow at Penn State on Saturday. The Dallas-based Mustangs haven’t played in a sub-zero-Celsius game all year.

SMU averages almost double this point total (38.5 PPG) and has cleared this mark in 12 of 13 games. But in a wintery environment, I think the Mustangs will go cold.

And keep in mind that Penn State has an excellent defence (despite how Oregon made it look in the Big 10 championship game).

The Nittany Lions have held their opponents to:

16.4 PPG (eighth in the NCAA)
Under 22.5 points in 9/13 games

At home, Penn State has allowed just 11.1 PPG and cashed this bet in six of seven matchups.

Other parlay picks

Warren anytime TD (-152): Fresh off winning the Mackey Award as college football’s top tight end, Warren should remain at the centre of Penn State’s offensive plans on Saturday.

The fifth-year star has been particularly productive over his past five matchups:

8+ targets every game
6+ catches every game
112.0 scrimmage yards/game
5 TDs

Warren is a receiver first, but don’t count out his impact in the run game. He’s had multiple rush attempts in seven straight games and has four rushing TDs this season.

Penn State recently lost its backup quarterback, Beau Pribula, to the transfer portal. Pribula was primarily used in run packages this year, so his absence could simply mean more touches for Warren.

Smith over 64.5 rushing yards (-215): SMU might be fighting a negative game script all day, but its best chance to win might be to shrink the number of possessions.

And the best way to do that would be to lean on Smith in the run game.

In the ACC championship game, Smith rushed 24 times for 113 yards. His floor, in terms of touches, is really high.

16+ carries in six straight games
16.7 carries/game this season
65+ rush yards in 11/13 games

Based on my fade of SMU’s point total, I don’t expect much from the Mustangs’ offence. But keeping the ball in Smith’s hands has been a solid strategy all year.

Picks made at 1:15 p.m. on 12/19/24.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame CFP same-game parlay predictions: Leonard should lead Fighting Irish to playoff win

The first round of the expanded College Football Playoff begins on Friday Night in South Bend, Indiana, where the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a cinematic season for Hoosiers, but I think Friday will be their final act. I’m fading Kurtis Rourke against a nasty pass defence and backing Riley Leonard to make some plays with his legs.

Check out my top Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 20.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions

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Parlay: Notre Dame -6.5 + Rourke under 219.5 passing yards + Leonard over 49.5 rushing yards (+260)

Notre Dame -6.5 (-129): The Irish have the worst loss of any CFP team, which was a home defeat against unranked Northern Illinois.

But that game was played all the way back on Sept. 7 (Week 2) in a hangover spot after ND’s 10-point road win against Texas A&M. And since losing to a mediocre MAC school, the Irish have played some thoroughly dominant ball:

10-straight wins by 7+ points
9-1 ATS
+30.7 average victory margin

A resume comparison between Notre Dame and Indiana is tough because neither team faced many challenges this season. Both schools ranked outside the top 60 in ESPN’s strength of schedule metric.

To me, the home environment for ND matters. The last time Indiana was on the road, the Hoosiers accrued just 151 total yards in a blowout loss to Ohio State.

Other parlay picks

Rourke under 219.5 passing yards (-195): Part of my belief in Notre Dame is its stellar pass defence, which should cause problems for Rourke.

According to gameonpaper.com, ND’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass and passing success rate. The Irish were also the country’s only unit to allow a sub-50.0% completion percentage.

Facing run-heavy schools like Army and Navy meant ND didn’t allow a lot of total passing yards, either. But the efficiency metrics tell a more accurate — and impressive — story.

Rourke’s success at IU this season was built on efficiency, not volume. He paced the Big Ten in yards per attempt (9.9), but his Hoosiers were 98th in pass play percentage (43.7%).

In the aforementioned disaster against Ohio State, Rourke finished with 68 yards on 8-of-18 passing. I don’t expect it to be quite that ugly, but I believe he’ll go under a 219.5-yard total for a fourth time in six games.

Leonard over 49.5 rushing yards (-143): Running back Jeremiyah Love is expected to play for Notre Dame, which is a feather in the Irish’s cap. But after he suffered a leg injury on Nov. 30, it’s tough to say how healthy he’ll be.

Fortunately for ND, Leonard is a very capable runner from under centre.

The Duke transfer rushed for 721 yards this season (60.1 yards/game).

Leonard tallied 50+ rush yards in 8/12 games

I would’ve felt good about Leonard’s floor as a rusher anyway, given that he’s averaging more than 10 carries per game as it is. But Love’s health status could entice ND to lean more heavily on its quarterback.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. on 12/19/24.

First round College Football Playoff prop picks: NCAAF predictions on Clemson’s Klubnik, Ohio State’s Smith

A four-pack of College Football Playoff games take place this weekend, and I’ve got prop picks on three of them.

The pregame narrative: In Friday’s opening matchup, Justice Ellison should have enough opportunities to clear his rushing yard total. On Saturday, Cade Klubnik is worth fading in a nightmarish matchup, and Jeremiah Smith has plus-money value to score.

Check out the best College Football Playoff prop picks for first-round action on Dec. 20-21.

College Football Playoff prop picks

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Best Bet: Ellison over 49.5 rushing yards (-136)

The No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers have played in one hostile road environment this year, which was on Nov. 23 at The Horseshoe against then-No. 2 Ohio State. It did not go well.

But the Hoosiers’ main problem that day was in the passing game, as quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for just 68 yards on 18 attempts.

No. 7 Notre Dame should give Rourke fits on Friday night, as the Irish have allowed the lowest completion percentage in the country (48.7%). That has me looking at Ellison for some production.

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Against Ohio State, Ellison chugged for 62 yards on 17 carries. That’s not efficient production by any means, but it’s not a total flop.

Ellison doesn’t have the Hoosiers’ backfield to himself, but he’s the 1A in a two-tailback system.

The Wake Forest transfer leads IU in carries and yards, and he’s averaging 67.6 yards on the ground.

Ellison has had no fewer than nine carries in any game this season. His floor is high, and Notre Dame’s pass defence should force him into action.

Key stat: Ellison has 50-plus rushing yards in nine of 12 games.

Quick picks

Klubnik under 213.5 passing yards (-120): This pick is all about the No. 5 Texas Longhorns and their stout defence.

Texas ranked No. 2 in total defence this year, allowing 300-plus total yards only once.

Opposing quarterbacks went under 213.5 passing yards in 12/12 games vs. the Longhorns.

The Longhorns aren’t as mean up front as last year after the NFL departures of Byron Murphy and T’vondre Sweat. But they’ve got two ballhawks in the secondary — including Clemson transfer Andrew Mukuba, who has three interceptions and three tackles for loss in his past six games.

The closest thing Klubnik has seen to this Texas defence was in the season opener against Georgia. In that game, the junior QB had a season-low 142 passing yards on 29 attempts.

Smith anytime TD scorer (+114): Smith cashed this bet in nine of 12 games, pacing the Big Ten with 10 receiving touchdowns on the season.

As the No. 1 player in the 2024 class — per 247 Sports — Smith isn’t your average true freshman. He scored in each of Ohio State’s first seven games this year, cementing himself as the go-to weapon in Columbus.

Coming off a truly embarrassing 13-10 loss to Michigan, Ohio State needs to return to a more pass-heavy attack. More passes should mean more opportunities for Smith.

Smith did score the Buckeyes’ lone TD against the Wolverines, and I don’t expect the Tennessee Volunteers to keep him out of the end zone.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. on 12/18/2024.

Broncos vs. Chargers Week 16 TNF prop picks: Fade Justin Herbert, back Marvin Mims on Thursday

A pair of playoff-calibre AFC West squads meet on Thursday Night Football in a matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers.

The pregame narrative: Justin Herbert is in a rut, and I don’t think he’ll snap out of it against Denver’s daunting pass defence. As for the Broncos’ offence, I like Marvin Mims to clear a modest receiving yards line after some encouraging usage.

Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 19.

Broncos vs. Chargers prop picks

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Best Bet: Mims over 26.5 receiving yards (-117)

Aside from Courtland Sutton, the Broncos’ receiving corps is a merry-go-round of guys who all show glimpses of promise without any sustained success.

But there’s something about Mims that has my attention.

Over his past five games, Mims has commanded a 35.2% target share on his routes. He’s only averaged 3.8 targets per game in that span, mind you, but the ball tends to find him when he’s on the field.

Is that a product of Mims running strong routes and getting open? Or are the Broncos scheming several plays with him in mind?

Without getting to ask head coach Sean Payton, I can’t know for sure. Regardless, Mims’ target share when he’s on the field is a nice indicator that he’s carving out a role for himself.

Prior to Week 10, Mims never saw more than three targets in a game.

Since Week 10, he’s had 4+ targets in 4/5 games.

If the Broncos are trying to scheme up more plays for Mims, that would make sense to me. As a rookie last season, he was a Pro Bowl kick returner and proved he can make plays in space.

Key stat: Mims has averaged 46.2 yards/game in his past five, cashing this bet three times.

Quick pick

Herbert under 228.5 passing yards (-115): Nursing an ankle injury and coming off four tough weeks, Herbert is walking — or possibly limping — into a brutal matchup against the Broncos.

Herbert has gone under this yardage total in every matchup from Week 12-15:

218 yards, 0 TDs (vs. Ravens)
147 yards, 0 TDs (at Falcons)
213 yards, 1 TD (at Chiefs)
195 yards, 2 TDs (vs. Buccaneers)

Denver ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per dropback, per rbsdm.com, and No. 3 in net yards per attempt (5.4). The Broncos aren’t going to make things easy on Herbert.

It’s worth noting that Herbert threw for 237 yards against Denver in Week 6, but that was on 34 pass attempts — well above his average of 28.5 attempts this season.

After practicing in a limited fashion on Monday and Tuesday, I’m not expecting Herbert to sit on Thursday night. His mobility could be affected, though, adding another reason to fade him.

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 12/18/2024.

NBA parlay picks Dec. 19: Bet on Magic to cover, Bulls/Celtics to score

Tuesday’s NBA Cup finale put the league on a one-day hiatus, but pro hoops are back in full force on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: From the upcoming 13-game slate, I’m backing two alt totals and an alt spread in a three-leg parlay. Look for the shorthanded Orlando Magic to stay competitive at home against the NBA Cup runner-up Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for Dec. 19.

NBA parlay picks

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Parlay: Magic +9.5 + Bulls/Celtics over 239.5 points + Knicks/T-Wolves under 220.5 points (+265)

Magic +9.5 (-188): Orlando is in a really tough spot with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the sideline. But so far, that hasn’t kept the team from being competitive.

The Magic are 3-0 against this spread in the three games without Wagner and Banchero. On the season, Orlando has covered this number in 23 of 28 games — including all 11 games at home.

I’d have a more difficult time backing Orlando if it was on the road, but I feel good about this squad when it’s at Kia Center.

The Magic are 10-1 at home and have the best home net rating in the NBA (+12.9).

Other picks

Celtics/Bulls over 239.5 points (-167): I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The Celtics score because they’re efficient, while the Bulls score because they’re fast.

Both teams rank in the top six in points per game, averaging 238.8 points collectively.

The over is 4-0 in the past four matchups between these teams, and they combined for 267 total points when they last played (Nov. 29). Chicago has cleared this total in five of its past seven road games.

Knicks/Timberwolves under 220.5 points (-200): In the first matchup since the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, I expect the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves to engage in a rock fight.

Minnesota has regained its defensive identity, posting a league-best 99.3 defensive rating over its past 10 games.

New York has sharpened up on defence, too, with a 108.9 defensive rating in its past 10 (eighth in the NBA).

At this number, unders are 10-1 in Minnesota’s past 11 games — and the lone exception was a game that went to overtime. In those 11 recent matchups, the average game total was just 203.2 points.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 12/18/2024.

College Football Playoff betting guide: Trends, schedule and FAQ for the first-round matchups

This year’s College Football Playoff will be bigger (and better) than ever.

With home playoff games, an expanded field and a bracket bursting with upset potential, there are lots of new elements that should make the 2024-25 CFP a great experience for bettors and fans.

Before the first-round games kick off on Dec. 20, check out our College Football Playoff betting guide.

College Football Playoff betting guide: 4 key storylines

Go to full NCAAF betting markets.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame: Strength vs. strength

According to gameonpaper.com, Indiana’s offence ranks in No. 1 EPA per pass. But Notre Dame’s defence is No. 1 in the same category.

On the flip side, Notre Dame’s best offensive attribute is its run game (No. 9 in EPA per rush), but that’s also where Indiana’s defence excels (No. 1 in EPA/rush).

Which side is willing to commit to its strengths? Keep in mind that both teams were critiqued for fairly weak schedules. The Hoosiers are 11th among CFP teams in strength of schedule (67th), per ESPN, and Notre Dame (60th) wasn’t far ahead. It’s possible that one side will be exposed as a fraud in this game.

SMU should relish the underdog status

Penn State went blow-for-blow with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, flexing a lot more offensive muscle than it showed against Ohio State back in early November. So it makes sense for the Nittany Lions to be favoured over the ACC runner-up Mustangs, but SMU could be dangerous in this spot.

SMU went 8-5 ATS this season, including a 2-0 ATS record as an underdog. In fact, the Mustangs won both games as underdogs straight up (vs. TCU, at Louisville).

Penn State is 6-5 ATS this season and just 3-4 ATS at home.

Clemson vs. Texas could be a slog

Unders are 8-4 in Clemson games this year and 8-4-1 in Texas games. The Longhorns have cashed the under in four straight. Against a 51.5-point total, unders are 8-1 in Texas’ past nine.

Texas, in particular, appears to have the tools to squash the Clemson offence. Texas ranks No. 2 in the nation in opponent scoring (12.5 PPG), opponent yards (249.8 YPG) and third/fourth down success rate (33.0%).

Clemson’s greatest concern is probably its run defence, which has allowed 200-plus yards four times this season. The Tigers rank 113th in defensive EPA per rush. And with Quinn Ewers still recovering from an ankle injury, Texas might lean more on its ground attack — including the dual-threat abilities of backup quarterback Arch Manning.

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Will Ohio State air it out?

Ohio State’s regular season ended sourly, with a 13-10 loss at home to a severely overmatched Michigan Wolverines squad. One of the main head-scratchers coming out of that game — in addition to the flag-planting brouhaha — was the fact that the Buckeyes scripted far too many run plays.

With three NFL-calibre prospects in their receiving corps, the Buckeyes should’ve operated more through the air. Ohio State has the No. 2 offensive pass success rate in the country (52.5%).

Tennessee’s defence is No. 2 in success rate overall, but the Vols are only 46th at defensive pass success rate (38.8%). This isn’t a good matchup for Ohio State to establish the run. Instead, get the ball in the hands of Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka and let them dictate the outcome.

CFP schedule and odds

No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Spread: Notre Dame -7
Date: Dec. 20 at 8 p.m.

No. 11 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
Spread: Penn State -8.5
Date: Dec. 21 at 12 p.m.

No. 12 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Spread: Texas -12
Date: Dec. 21 at 4 p.m.

No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -7.5
Date: Dec. 21 at 8 p.m.

College Football Playoff betting guide: FAQ

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The CFP begins with Indiana vs. Notre Dame on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET.

What is the new College Football Playoff format?

For the first time, the CFP has expanded to a 12-team format this season. The five highest-ranked conference champions received automatic bids. The remaining playoff spots went to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Rankings are determined by the CFP selection committee.

Who’s on the College Football Playoff selection committee?

The CFP selection committee is a 13-person group consisting of coaches, athletic directors, former players and media. Some members carry over from one year to the next, but no two consecutive committees have been the same.

Where are the College Football playoff matchups played?

First-round CFP matchups are hosted on campus by the schools with higher seeds (e.g., No. 7 Notre Dame hosts No. 10 Indiana). In the quarterfinals, all four games take place at neutral site bowl locations: Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl. For the semifinals, the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl host the games. Finally, the national championship is at an additional neutral site.

When is the College Football Playoff national championship?

On Monday, Jan. 20, the CFP national championship will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Which team won last year’s national championship?

Last season, the Michigan Wolverines completed a 15-0 season with a national title victory over the Washington Huskies, 34-13.

College Football Playoff betting guide: Trends, schedule and FAQ for the first-round matchups

This year’s College Football Playoff will be bigger (and better) than ever.

With home playoff games, an expanded field and a bracket bursting with upset potential, there are lots of new elements that should make the 2024-25 CFP a great experience for bettors and fans.

Before the first-round games kick off on Dec. 20, check out our College Football Playoff betting guide.

College Football Playoff betting guide: 4 key storylines

Go to full NCAAF betting markets.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame: Strength vs. strength

According to gameonpaper.com, Indiana’s offence ranks in No. 1 EPA per pass. But Notre Dame’s defence is No. 1 in the same category.

On the flip side, Notre Dame’s best offensive attribute is its run game (No. 9 in EPA per rush), but that’s also where Indiana’s defence excels (No. 1 in EPA/rush).

Which side is willing to commit to its strengths? Keep in mind that both teams were critiqued for fairly weak schedules. The Hoosiers are 11th among CFP teams in strength of schedule (67th), per ESPN, and Notre Dame (60th) wasn’t far ahead. It’s possible that one side will be exposed as a fraud in this game.

SMU should relish the underdog status

Penn State went blow-for-blow with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, flexing a lot more offensive muscle than it showed against Ohio State back in early November. So it makes sense for the Nittany Lions to be favoured over the ACC runner-up Mustangs, but SMU could be dangerous in this spot.

SMU went 8-5 ATS this season, including a 2-0 ATS record as an underdog. In fact, the Mustangs won both games as underdogs straight up (vs. TCU, at Louisville).

Penn State is 6-5 ATS this season and just 3-4 ATS at home.

Clemson vs. Texas could be a slog

Unders are 8-4 in Clemson games this year and 8-4-1 in Texas games. The Longhorns have cashed the under in four straight. Against a 51.5-point total, unders are 8-1 in Texas’ past nine.

Texas, in particular, appears to have the tools to squash the Clemson offence. Texas ranks No. 2 in the nation in opponent scoring (12.5 PPG), opponent yards (249.8 YPG) and third/fourth down success rate (33.0%).

Clemson’s greatest concern is probably its run defence, which has allowed 200-plus yards four times this season. The Tigers rank 113th in defensive EPA per rush. And with Quinn Ewers still recovering from an ankle injury, Texas might lean more on its ground attack — including the dual-threat abilities of backup quarterback Arch Manning.

Bet now on NCAAF markets

Will Ohio State air it out?

Ohio State’s regular season ended sourly, with a 13-10 loss at home to a severely overmatched Michigan Wolverines squad. One of the main head-scratchers coming out of that game — in addition to the flag-planting brouhaha — was the fact that the Buckeyes scripted far too many run plays.

With three NFL-calibre prospects in their receiving corps, the Buckeyes should’ve operated more through the air. Ohio State has the No. 2 offensive pass success rate in the country (52.5%).

Tennessee’s defence is No. 2 in success rate overall, but the Vols are only 46th at defensive pass success rate (38.8%). This isn’t a good matchup for Ohio State to establish the run. Instead, get the ball in the hands of Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka and let them dictate the outcome.

CFP schedule and odds

No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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No. 11 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions

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No. 12 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns

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No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes

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College Football Playoff betting guide: FAQ

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The CFP begins with Indiana vs. Notre Dame on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET.

What is the new College Football Playoff format?

For the first time, the CFP has expanded to a 12-team format this season. The five highest-ranked conference champions received automatic bids. The remaining playoff spots went to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Rankings are determined by the CFP selection committee.

Who’s on the College Football Playoff selection committee?

The CFP selection committee is a 13-person group consisting of coaches, athletic directors, former players and media. Some members carry over from one year to the next, but no two consecutive committees have been the same.

Where are the College Football playoff matchups played?

First-round CFP matchups are hosted on campus by the schools with higher seeds (e.g., No. 7 Notre Dame hosts No. 10 Indiana). In the quarterfinals, all four games take place at neutral site bowl locations: Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl. For the semifinals, the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl host the games. Finally, the national championship is at an additional neutral site.

When is the College Football Playoff national championship?

On Monday, Jan. 20, the CFP national championship will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Which team won last year’s national championship?

Last season, the Michigan Wolverines completed a 15-0 season with a national title victory over the Washington Huskies, 34-13.

NBA parlay picks Dec. 19: Bet on Magic to cover, Bulls/Celtics to score

Tuesday’s NBA Cup finale put the league on a one-day hiatus, but pro hoops are back in full force on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: From the upcoming 13-game slate, I’m backing two alt totals and an alt spread in a three-leg parlay. Look for the shorthanded Orlando Magic to stay competitive at home against the NBA Cup runner-up Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for Dec. 19.

NBA parlay picks

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Parlay: Magic +9.5 + Bulls/Celtics over 239.5 points + Knicks/T-Wolves under 220.5 points (+239)

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Magic +9.5 (-215): Orlando is in a really tough spot with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the sideline. But so far, that hasn’t kept the team from being competitive.

The Magic are 3-0 against this spread in the three games without Wagner and Banchero. On the season, Orlando has covered this number in 23 of 28 games — including all 11 games at home.

I’d have a more difficult time backing Orlando if it was on the road, but I feel good about this squad when it’s at Kia Center.

The Magic are 10-1 at home and have the best home net rating in the NBA (+12.9).

Other picks

Celtics/Bulls over 239.5 points (-186): I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The Celtics score because they’re efficient, while the Bulls score because they’re fast.

Both teams rank in the top six in points per game, averaging 238.8 points collectively.

The over is 4-0 in the past four matchups between these teams, and they combined for 267 total points when they last played (Nov. 29). Chicago has cleared this total in five of its past seven road games.

Knicks/Timberwolves under 220.5 points (-205): In the first matchup since the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, I expect the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves to engage in a rock fight.

Minnesota has regained its defensive identity, posting a league-best 99.3 defensive rating over its past 10 games.

New York has sharpened up on defence, too, with a 108.9 defensive rating in its past 10 (eighth in the NBA).

At this number, unders are 10-1 in Minnesota’s past 11 games — and the lone exception was a game that went to overtime. In those 11 recent matchups, the average game total was just 203.2 points.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 12/18/2024.